Crossing the Sea 2017year10month24day

  

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

24

day

Focus this week:
10month24day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

10month25day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
U.S.A8Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses

10month26day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

10month27day(Friday)
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第三季最终销售初值
美国第三季消费者支出初值
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数初值
US Season 3 CorePCE物价指数初值
Season 3 in the United StatesPCE物价指数初值
U.S.A10Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Important economic data released today:   
21：45U.S.A10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value54.8
21：45U.S.A10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast53.5‧Previous value53.1
21：45U.S.A10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast55.6‧Previous value55.3
22：00U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index‧Front value positive19



10month23day
LondongoldMorning order price:1275.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1274.90



XAU London Gold - 税改预期提振美元，金价走势承压

金价周二横幅波动，投资者为下任美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席提前出炉的可能性做准备。金价周一触及10month6The lowest point in recent days1271.86美元。美国总统特朗普周一告诉记者，与五名候选人进行面谈后，他“十分接近”确定美联储主席人选。这些候选人包括2月任期届满的现任美联储主席叶伦、美联储理事鲍威尔、斯坦福大学教授泰勒(JohnTaylor)、白宫国家经济委员会主任柯恩(GaryCohn)和前美联储理事瓦尔许(KevinWarsh)。如果任命立场较强硬的候选人接任美联储主席一职，将提振美元。投资者还关注美国税改进展。参议院周五批准一项预算决议，提升了特朗普今年将推进税改计划的希望。

As seen in the technical chart,4Tianhe9天平均线呈现利淡交叉，短期价位或仍处于承压。当前金价关键位置为100天平均线，上周三及周四低位亦刚好止步于此区之上，目前100The balance moving average is at1275水平，需警剔若跌破此区，金价或会展开新一轮下跌。下方支持预估在1267To the extent that1256，关键料为250Balance moving average1243美元。阻力则会回看1291and1300美元关口，较大阻力料为1320USD.

        
London Gold10month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1279 - 1291
Resistance level:1303- 1320
Support bit:1267- 1256

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton
10month9Day -858.45ton
10month10Day -858.45ton
10month11Day -858.45ton
10month12Day -858.45ton
10month13Day -853.13ton
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价横盘待变

伦敦白银方面，近月处于横盘走势，并依循于100天平均线获得支撑，目前100The balance moving average is located at16.84美元，若然跌破此区，银价或会开展跌势，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元。较大支持可参考15.70。上方阻力料为17.30and17.60美元，下一级看至18.00USD.

        
London Silver10month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 –17.30
Resistance level:17.60–18.00
Support bit:16.70–16.40
                                                                        
iShares SilverTrustSilver holdings:
10month9Day - 10167.69ton
10month10Day - 10167.69ton
10month11Day - 10132.44ton
10month12Day - 10132.44ton
10month13Day - 10132.44ton
10month16Day - 10023.77ton
10month17Day - 10023.77ton
10month18Day - 10023.77ton
10month19Day - 9994.39ton
10month20Day - 9994.39ton
10month23Day - 9962.09ton



EUR euro - 美元上扬，“特朗普通胀”押注再起

欧元兑美元上扬，不过在欧洲央行周四召开政策会议前，欧元涨幅料受限。预计欧洲央行将暗示会渐进且小幅度地移除超宽松货币政策。加泰罗尼亚分离主义危机继续令欧元承压。西班牙政府已经动用特别宪法权力，解散加泰罗尼亚地区政府并强制选举，以对抗独立运动。西班牙参议院将于周五就是否直接接管加泰罗尼亚进行投票表决。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，上周四欧元升高至1.1880，但受着50天平均线所制肘，上月底欧元的短暂反扑亦是受限于此指针，目前50The balance moving average is at1.1845，若短期仍然无法跨过此区，料欧元将继续有回吐压力。倘若以自六月低位1.1117至九月高位1.2092Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%The level of feedback is1.1720，进一步扩展50%and61.8%的调整幅度则会看至1.1610and1.1490水平。估计中期重要支撑则指向1.13水平，此区为今年五月下旬至六月的横盘区间顶部位置。至于向上较大阻力则会关注1.20Gateway.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1850 –1.2000
support1.1720 –1.1610 –1.1490 –1.1300*
                                                                        
Focus:
10month25day(three): Germany10monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy8Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
10month26day(four): Germany11monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone9monthM3Supply of goods(Annual growth rate)‧M3For household loans‧Europe10Monthly central bank interest rate decision(再融资利率)‧Central bank interest rate determination(Deposit interest rate)
10month27day(five): France10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

Related news
eurozone10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is58.6Yes2011year2The highest since the beginning of the month
eurozone10Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is55.9
eurozone10Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is54.9
Germany10Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is55.2
Germany10Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is56.9
Germany10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is60.5
France10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is56.7
France10Monthly service industryPMIThe initial value is57.4
France10Monthly comprehensivePMIThe initial value is57.5



JPY yen - 市场聚焦美联储主席接任人选

市场焦点转向谁将担任美联储下届主席。美国总统特朗普周一告诉记者，与五名候选人进行面谈后，他“十分接近”确定美联储主席人选。候选人包括2月任期届满的现任美联储主席耶伦、美联储理事鲍威尔、斯坦福大学教授泰勒(JohnTaylor)、白宫国家经济委员会主任柯恩(GaryCohn)和前美联储理事瓦尔许(KevinWarsh)。美元兑日圆上涨，周一涨至三个月高点114.09。日本首相安倍晋三领导的执政联盟在选举中取得决定性胜利，从而让投资者相信被称为“安倍经济学”的经济改革措施将继续下去，包括日本央行弱化日圆的宽松货币政策。

技术图表所见，美元兑日圆突破近期波幅区间，有继续向上动能。进一步上试目标可留意114.50as well as115.00水平，较大阻力参考今年初高位118.60。下方支持回看25Balance moving average112.55and111.60，较大支撑指向111Horizontal.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance114.50 –115.00 - 118.60
support112.55 –111.60 –111.00

Focus:
10month26day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
10month27day(five): Japan9Monthly National OverallCPI‧Japan10Overall Tokyo regionCPI

Related news
日经指数连涨16天，受对大型股的买兴支撑



GBP pound - 央行副总裁康利夫称11月升息仍是“开放性问题”

英国央行副总裁康利夫在一份威尔士报纸周一刊登的采访中称，升息是一个“开放性问题”，因而再度引起有关他下周是否会支持升息的怀疑。康利夫以及另一位央行副总裁拉姆斯登在过去一周明确表示，他们认为下周升息的时机还不成熟。康利夫称如果国内通胀压力一如央行预期加速上升，那么利率将会上调，但并未断定这一过程应该开始。路透调查中多数分析师预测，英国央行在11month2日会议上将作出逾10年来的首次升息决定。此前央行上月表示，多数决策者预期未来几个月利率将会上调。

技术图表所见，随着英镑兑美元回挫，带动RSI及随机指数亦呈现下跌，但当前较大考验将是位于1.31的上升趋向线，后市若跌破此区，将见英镑续现调整压力，延伸目标将指向1.30From the gateway to8Month low1.2770。至于上方阻力则回看上周限制着英镑升幅的25Balance moving average, currently located at1.3335；较大阻力则预估在1.3420Horizontal.        


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3250 –1.3300 - 1.3420
support1.3130 - 1.3000*- 1.2770
                                                               
Focus:
10month25day(three): UK Season 3GDPinitial value‧britain9monthUKFINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans
10month26day(four): UK10monthCBIRetail sales difference



CHF Swiss franc - 突破关口瑞郎延续涨势

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意0.98关口，若后市汇价突破此区，则见延续近月涨势；较大阻力则会指向250Balance moving average0.9880To the extent that1.00Gateway.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9800 –0.9880 - 1.0000
support0.9540 –0.9500 - 0.9400*

Focus:
10month25day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland9Monthly consumption indicators



AUD AUD - 澳元维持弱势发展

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，澳元兑美元短线料续呈下调压力，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至上月高位0.8125Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%的回调幅度会看至0.7820and0.7730，扩大幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630；关键支撑可留意250Balance moving average0.7630以及另一道上升趋向线位置0.7520水平。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考50Balance moving average0.7910，下一级则瞩目于0.80Gateway.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7890 –0.7950 –0.8000
support0.7800 - 0.7730 - 0.7630  0.7520

Focus:
10month25day(three): Australia Season 3CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧CPItrimmed mean
10month26day(four)Q3 export price quarterly rate in Australia‧Seasonal import price rate
10month27day(five): Australia Season 3PPI



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽元跌至五个月低位，受工党政府概述新政策影响

纽元周二成为G10主要货币中波动最为剧烈的一个，跌至五个月低位，此前即将上任的工党政府概述了其偏左倾政策。新西兰新政府重申了对于减少移民、上调最低薪资以及禁止外国人购买当地住房的承诺，投资者认为这些政策对外来投资及移民不利。但对投资人来说，最为紧迫的担忧是新政府计划要评估并修改央行法案，可能在通胀的基础上增加就业作为央行的两项使命。自工党上月赢得选举胜利后，纽元已经下跌近5%。

图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数双双下滑，反映着纽元兑美元正重回弱势。值得留意的是，由2015year8Monthly low0.62延伸至今的上升趋向线位于0.6980，若后市纽元跌破此区，或见跌势将更为猛烈，下一级支持位预估为200Monthly average line0.6885To the extent that0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力则参考200Balance moving average0.7160and0.72Horizontal.

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7160 - 0.7200
support0.6980 –0.6885 - 0.6800

Focus:
10month26day(four): New Zealand9Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by9Annual trade balance of the month



CAD Cad - 升息预期弱化，加元续陷弱势

美元兑加元走势，近日正探试着50天平均线阻力1.2450，需留意后市若明确突破此区，将见美元兑加元仍延续着反扑动力。同时，10天平均线已上破25天平均线形成黄金交叉，预示美元中期走势仍偏强。上方阻力会回看1.26and1.2780，下一级留意100Balance moving average1.28水平。预估下方支持为25Balance moving average1.2320and1.21水平，关键则会参考9Low at the beginning of the month1.2094。

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2450 - 1.2600 –1.2780 –1.2820
support1.2320 –1.2100 –1.2094

Focus:   
10month25day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)