Crossing the Sea 2017year10month23day(Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

23

day

Focus this week:
10month24day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

10month25day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
U.S.A8Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses

10month26day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

10month27day(Friday)
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第三季最终销售初值
美国第三季消费者支出初值
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数初值
US Season 3 CorePCE物价指数初值
Season 3 in the United StatesPCE物价指数初值
U.S.A10Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Important economic data released today:  
09：30 China9month70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities
18：00 britain10Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Total industrial order difference‧Front value positive7
20：30 Canada8Monthly wholesale trade‧Previous value+1.5%
22：00 eurozone10月消费者信心初值‧Predict negative1.0‧Negative front value1.2



10month20day
LondongoldMorning order price:1280.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1281.20



XAU London Gold - 税改预期提振美元，金价走势承压

市场近期焦点放在谁将担任下任美联储主席，候选人包括现任主席耶伦、白宫国家经济委员会主任柯恩、前美联储理事瓦尔许、美联储理事鲍威尔和斯坦福大学经济学家泰勒。本周初有报导称特朗普青睐比耶伦更为鹰派的斯坦福大学教授泰勒出任下一任美联储主席，引发美元上扬；之后又有报导称特朗普倾向于提名美联储理事鲍威尔，美元随之走软。接着美国参院通过预算计划，可能有利推动税改，激励美元周五又重新上扬。美国参议院周四以51Ticket pair49票的投票结果批准2018财年预算案，这将为共和党在不需要民主党支持的情况下推进减税措施铺平道路。美元走势持续受到支撑，美债收益率亦上扬，因投资人预期财政刺激措施可能推升通胀率。这可能促使美联储升息速度高于市场预期。尽管劳动力市场吃紧，但美国物价压力仍特别低迷，美联储青睐的通胀衡量指标--核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数在8月份报在一年低位1.3%。

未来一周重要事件包括中共十九大闭幕后将召开一中全会确定新一届中央政治局常委，以及欧洲央行和加拿大央行政策决议。数据面重点关注美国和英国国内生产总值(GDP)JapanCPI以及多国制造业、服务业和综合PMI。

伦敦黄金方面，上星期金价大致承压，虽然周四一度反弹，但到了周五又复转跌，因美元重拾涨势。技术图表所见，10Tianhe25天平均线接近呈现黄金交叉，但价位受制1300美元关口，利好讯号尚未见明确。当前金价关键位置为100天平均线，上周三及周四低位亦刚好止步于此区之上，目前100The balance moving average is at1275水平，需警剔若跌破此区，金价或会展开新一轮下跌。下方支持预估在1260To the extent that250Balance moving average1243美元。阻力则会回看1300美元关口，较大阻力料为1313and1320USD.

London Gold10month23day – 27Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1287 – 1296 – 1316 – 1346
Support bit:1265 – 1255 – 1241 – 1225

London Gold10month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1268 – 1283
Resistance level:1297 – 1310
Support bit:1254 – 1241

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month25Day -856.08ton
9month26Day -862.58ton
9month27Day -864.65ton
9month28Day -864.65ton
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton
10month9Day -858.45ton
10month10Day -858.45ton
10month11Day -858.45ton
10month12Day -858.45ton
10month13Day -853.13ton
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价走势趋稳

伦敦白银方面，在此轮下跌走势中亦形成了一下降趋向线，目前位于16.78美元，银价已冲破此区，近期弱势得以缓和；预计延伸阻力可至17.60and18.00美元，下一级看至18.30。支持方面，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元。较大支持可参考15.70。

London Silver10month23day – 27Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.80 – 18.30
Support bit:16.60 – 16.40 – 15.80

London Silver10month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.50
Resistance level:17.90 – 18.00
Support bit:16.20 – 16.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month9Day - 10167.69ton
10month10Day - 10167.69ton
10month11Day - 10132.44ton
10month12Day - 10132.44ton
10month13Day - 10132.44ton
10month16Day - 10023.77ton
10month17Day - 10023.77ton
10month18Day - 10023.77ton
10month19Day - 9994.39ton
10month20Day - 9994.39ton




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)