Crossing the Sea 2017year10month12day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

12

day

  
Focus this week:
10month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

10month13day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9monthCPI‧coreCPI
美国每周平均实质所得月率
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8月企业库存月率
U.S.A10Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学预期指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学一年通胀预期初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学五年通胀预期初值



Important economic data released today:  
18：00 eurozone8Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.1%
18：00 eurozone8Monthly industrial production annual rate‧forecast+2.6%‧Previous value+3.2%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month7Day and Week)‧forecast25.1ten thousand people‧Previous value26.0ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month7Day and Week)‧Previous value26.825ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(9month30Day and Week)‧forecast193.5ten thousand people‧Previous value193.8ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+2.4%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIthe annual rate‧forecast+2.0%‧Previous value+2.0%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.9%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 Canada8Monthly rate of new housing price index‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.4%

10month13day (Friday)
02：00 U.S.A9Monthly federal budget‧forecast60Yiyi surplus‧Previous value1,080A deficit of one billion yuan



News of the Week
美国军方周二晚间部署B-1B轰炸机飞过朝鲜半岛
西班牙首相给予加泰罗尼亚领导人八天时间考虑放弃独立
9月政策会议记录显示，美联储在通胀问题上的分歧加剧



10month11day
LondongoldMorning order price:1290.20
London gold afternoon fixing price:1289.25



Today's Introduction
9月政策会议记录显示，美联储在通胀问题上的分歧加剧

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Announced on Wednesday9month19-20日政策会议记录显示，决策者对通胀加速上升的前景，以及在通胀停滞情况下放缓升息步伐进行了深入的讨论。会议记录还显示，官员大多对近期飓风造成的经济影响不以为意。美联储的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在这次会议上宣布从本月开始缩减基本是在金融危机后累积起来的大规模资产组合，并一致同意维持利率不变。多位决策者称，在决定未来利率行动时，他们会关注未来几个月的通胀数据。即便如此，美联储称许多决策者仍感觉今年“可能有理由”再升息一次。会议记录公布后，美国股市和美国公债收益率几无变动。



XAU London Gold - 美元走弱扶助金价

金价升见至两周高位，之前美国联邦理事会(FED)Published9月会议记录显现出对低通胀的担忧。市场似乎认为美联储会议记录略显鸽派；尤其是关于通胀持续低迷的讲话，似乎吸引了较大关注。这导致美元微幅走软，加大了投资者对于黄金的兴趣。美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Announced on Wednesday9month19-20日政策会议记 录显示，决策者对通胀加速上升的前景，以及在通胀停滞情况下放缓升息 步伐进行了深入的讨论。

技术图表所见，当前关键阻力为25Balance moving average, currently in1298水平，在近一轮之跌势中，金价的两度反扑亦是受制此技术指标，故此若当前可跨过此区，金价将有望进一步走稳，较大阻力料为1310and1320美元。支持位则预估在1290and1280美元，较大支撑则看1270。

London Gold10month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1290 – 1300
Resistance level:1310 – 1320
Support bit:1280 – 1270

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton
9month21Day -852.24ton
9month25Day -856.08ton
9month26Day -862.58ton
9month27Day -864.65ton
9month28Day -864.65ton
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton
10month9Day -858.45ton
10month10Day -858.45ton
10month11Day -858.45ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价走势趋稳

伦敦白银方面，在此轮下跌走势中亦形成了一下降趋向线，目前位于16.83美元，银价已冲破此区，近期弱势得以缓和；预计延伸阻力可至17.40and17.70美元，下一级看至18.10。支持方面，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元。较大支持可参考15.70。较近支持料为17.10and16.80Horizontal.

London Silver10month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.10 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.10
Support bit:16.80 – 16.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton
9month21Day - 10106.00ton
9month25Day - 10163.29ton
9month26Day - 10163.29ton
9month27Day - 10163.29ton
9month28Day - 10163.29ton
10month2Day - 10163.29ton
10month3Day - 10158.88ton
10month5Day - 10129.51ton
10month6Day - 10129.51ton
10month9Day - 10167.69ton
10month10Day - 10167.69ton
10month11Day - 10132.44ton




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)