Getting a wave of profit requires wisdom, giving up a wrong order requires courage. Sometimes you think the sky is falling, but in fact, you may be standing in the opposite direction. Perseverance does not necessarily mean taking profits, giving up does not necessarily mean giving up. Instead of hitting a wall with grandeur, it is better to gracefully turn around, give yourself a roundabout space, learn to think, learn to wait, and learn to adjust. Investment often requires not only persistence, but also a carefree smile.
Federal Reserve9月会议纪要的鹰派程度低于市场预期,加之不久后传出美国财长努钦推荐中间偏鸽派美联储理事鲍威尔担任美联储主席的消息,导致美元承压下跌,使现货金价从日内最低点1284.12dollar/盎司一度拉升近10美元,最终收于1290.76dollar/ounce.
宏观经济深度解析!
黄金基本面——
Federal ReserveFOMC已经在9月会议上宣布将在10月启动资产负债表正常化项目,该计划的运作程序已经提前告知市场,因此不会让人意外。考虑到缩表的预期影响,我们将密切关注9月纪要中是否有进一步的讨论。通胀可能是9月会议的重点讨论话题,耶伦表示低通胀只是“暂时性”的,不会长期阻碍逐步收紧政策的必要性。然而部分FOMC决策者倾向于在进一步加息前,允许通胀提振。此外,会议纪要可能会展示官员对通胀、金融稳定性和政策意义的多种看法。
还原市场的本质,盈亏同步!
黄金布局思路——
技术面黄金隔日因美联储会议纪要不及预期鹰派,致美元走弱,提振金价上涨,呈现4连阳格局,目前金价站稳布林中轨上方,均线交金叉运行,站稳布林中轨上方,MACD指标交金叉,红色量能开始冒头,均加强黄金看涨信号。短周期4小时图上看,金价自周初开始便持续收涨,4小时图上看金价走势延续震荡上行趋势,目前金价K线持于布林带上轨下方,下方支撑关注MA5Daily moving average and10均线交金叉1290美元附近,进而是1285一线,阻力关注上轨线1296美元附近。指标上MACD双线勾头向上延伸发展,红色动能增强,KDJ向上发散。综合来看,黄金短期内继续维持震荡上行,操作上智权建议回撤做多为主。