Crossing the Sea 2017year10month9 day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

9

day

EUR euro - 加泰罗尼亚局势受关注，欧元走势承压

欧元上周遭受双重打击，先是因西班牙加泰罗尼亚地区周日的独立公投引发骚乱，之后欧洲央行周四最新会议记录更进一步打压欧元至七周低位1.1686美元，因市场认为会议记录偏鸽派。加泰罗尼亚分离派政治人士宣称将于下周一的议会会议上单方面宣布独立后，西班牙宪法法院周四下令暂缓加泰罗尼亚地区议会下周一的会议，这进一步加剧了西班牙这场自1975年以来最严重的危机。另外，欧洲央行9月会议记录显示，央行决策者在上月会议上讨论了延长资产购买计划到明年可能的各种情境，部分人士认为任何决定都应包含减少资产购买。此外，决策者还表达了对欧元快速升值的担忧。

技术图表所见，欧元兑美元在上月先后跌破25Days and50天平均线支撑，纵然上周尾段一度反扑，但明显受制50天平均线。同时，10Sky shattering25天平均线形成利淡交叉，均示意着欧元中短期前景依然向淡。倘若以自六月起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1.1720，进一步扩展50%and61.8%的调整幅度则会看至1.1610and1.1490。估计中期重要支撑则指向1.13水平，此区为今年五月下旬至六月的横盘区间顶部位置。向上阻力则会回看50Days and25天平均线的目前水平1.1845and1.1885，下一级则留意1.20Gateway

Focus:
10month9day(one): Germany8Monthly industrial production rate‧eurozone10monthSentixInvestor confidence index
10month10day(two): Germany8Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France8Monthly industrial production rate‧Italy8Monthly industrial production
10month12day(four): France9monthHICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly industrial production
10month13day(five): Germany9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1845 – 1.1885 – 1.2000
support 1.1720 – 1.1610 – 1.1490 – 1.1300*



JPY yen - 遭遇短期顶部

美元兑日圆方面，本周涨势呈现停滞，然而日本选举前的不确定性则压制着日圆走势；日本将在10month22日举行选举，东京都知事小池百合子筹组新党，对首相安倍晋三构成挑战。技术图表所见，过去一周多以来，汇价三度上探113.30，但均是无功而返，同时RSI及随机指数正自超买区域回落，因此，需慎防若短期汇价亦未可冲破近在咫尺的113.30阻力，则会酝酿着较大的回吐压力。若以近月的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回吐水平将会看至111and110.30Expand to61.8%To achieve109.60。反之，若美元兑日圆终可冲破近期顶部位置，进一步上试目标可留意114.50水平，较大阻力参考今年初高位118.60。

Focus:
10month10day(two): Japan8Monthly current account‧Japan9月经济观察者调查日本服务业景气判断指数
10month11day(three): Japan8月核心机械订单
10month12day(four): Japan9月银行贷款年率‧国内企业物价指数
10month13day(five): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 113.30* – 114.50 – 118.60
support 111.00 – 110.30 – 109.60



GBP pound - 政治不确定性打压英镑

As seen in the technical chart,RSI及随机指数仍处于下行，MACD跌破讯号线，均示意英镑兑美元仍倾向于维持走低。若以过去三个月的累计涨幅计算， 50%的回调水平为1.3120Expand to61.8%Then it is1.30关口。较大支撑则会参考8Month low1.2770. The estimated resistance above is1.33and1.3420。

Focus:
10month10day(two): UK9monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧britain8月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡
10month12day(four): UK9monthRICSPrice difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3420
support 1.3120 – 1.3000* – 1.2770



CHF Swiss franc - 再探0.98Gateway

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意0.98关口，若后市汇价突破此区，则见延续近月涨势；较大阻力则会指向250Balance moving average0.9880To the extent that1.00Gateway.

Focus:
10month10day(two)Switzerland9Monthly unemployment rate
10month13day(five)Switzerland9Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880 – 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 – 0.9400*



AUD AUD - 美元一枝独秀，商品货币承压

澳元兑美元上周维持走弱，周五见至0.7733；数据显示澳洲零售销售下滑，确认了利率维持在纪录低点的必要性，令澳元承压走低，澳元兑美元一度跌至0.7743, for7月中旬以来最低水平。官方数据显示，澳洲8Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the previous month0.6%，7月零售销售亦下修为下降0.2%。7Month and8月累计下跌0.8%, creating2010year10月以来最大连续两月跌幅。澳元周线或会连续第四周下跌，市场削减对央行升息的预期。技术图表所见，10天平均线跌破25天平均线，澳元兑美元料续呈下调压力，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至上月高位0.8125Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%的回调幅度会看至0.7820and0.7730，扩大幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630；关键支撑可留意另一首上升趋向线位置0.7520水平。至于向上阻力可先参考0.7890and25Balance moving average0.7940，下一级则瞩目于0.80Gateway.

Focus:
10month10day(two): Australia9monthNABBusiness Status Index‧NABBusiness confidence index
10month11day(three): Australia10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
10month12day(four): Australia8月房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7890 – 0.7950 – 0.8000
support 0.7800 – 0.7730 – 0.7630 – 0.7520



NZD New Zealand dollars - Probing down200MA

纽元兑美元方面，图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈下行，反映着纽元正陷弱势发展。纽元9At the beginning of the month200天平均线获见支撑，目前处于0.7155，将视为关键，目前已见初步跌破此区，若汇价下周仍维持此区下，料整体上纽元将延续弱势。倘若以五月低位0.6818至七月高位0.7557的累积升幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至0.71。而据顶部与颈线的相距幅度357点计算，下延的技术目标则可至0.6843。另一方面，上方阻力先回看50Balance moving average0.7270，关键阻力则指向0.75Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand8Monthly imports are49.2亿新西兰元，出口为36.9亿新西兰元
New Zealand8Monthly trade deficit12.4亿新西兰元
澳新银行：新西兰9月主要大宗商品价格较前月上涨0.8%，较上年同期劲扬11.5%
New Zealand9月房价指数同比升4.3%，为五年最小增幅

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7285 – 0.7500
support 0.7155* – 0.7100 – 0.6840



CAD Cad - 升息预期弱化，加元续陷弱势

美元兑加元走势，近日正探试着50天平均线阻力1.2450，需留意后市若明确突破此区，将见美元兑加元仍延续着反扑动力。同时，10天平均线已上破25天平均线形成gold交叉，预示美元中期走势仍偏强。上方阻力会回看1.26and1.2780，下一级留意100Balance moving average1.28水平。预估下方支持为25Balance moving average1.2320and1.21水平，关键则会参考9Low at the beginning of the month1.2094。

Focus:
10month6day(five): Canada9Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI
10month10day(two): Canada9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada8Monthly building permit rate
10month12day(four): Canada8Monthly rate of new housing price index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2450 – 1.2600 – 1.2780 – 1.2820
support 1.2320 – 1.2100 – 1.2094



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)