Crossing the Sea 2017year9month21day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

21

day

Focus this week:
9month21day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A7monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

9month22day(Friday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


Important economic data released today:  
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(9month16Day and Week)‧forecast30.0ten thousand people‧Previous value28.4ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(9month16Day and Week)‧Previous value26.325ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(9month9Day and Week)‧forecast197.5ten thousand people‧Previous value194.4ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index‧Predict positive17.2‧Front value positive18.9
20：30 Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate‧forecast-0.9%‧Previous value-0.5%
21：00 U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value+0.1%
21：00 U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value+6.5%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.3%
22：00 eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative1.5‧Negative front value1.5

News of the Week
Monday/美国防部长暗示存在对朝鲜诉诸武力的选项，但未提供细节

U.S.A7月整体资本净流出73USD100mn
U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is64

Tuesday/特朗普誓言若面临威胁，美国将彻底毁灭朝鲜

U.S.A8Monthly building permit growth5.7%At an annual rate of130.010000 households
U.S.A8月房屋开工下降0.8%At an annual rate of11810000 households
美国二季经常帐赤字为1,231.4USD100mn
U.S.A8Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%
U.S.A8月出口物价较前月上升0.6%

Wednesday/美联储一如预期维持利率不变，但表明仍预期年底前还会再升息一次
美联储表示，将于10月开始缩减约4.2万亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)组合

Thursday/日本央行一如预期维持政策不变



9month20day
LondongoldMorning order price:1314.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1311.30

Today's Introduction
Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三维持利率不变，但仍预计年底前再升息一次，尽管近期通胀数据疲弱。美联储会后发布的最新经济预估显示，16名委员中有11名预计到2017年底，指标联邦基金利率在1.25-1.50%区间是“合适”水平。一如市场预期，美联储还表示，将于10月开始缩减约4.2万亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)组合，最初将每月到期证券再投资规模减少至多100亿美元。联储主席耶伦在会后记者会上称，今年通胀下跌的原因仍是个谜，美联储随时准备在必要时调整利率前景。路透在美联储会后访查华尔街大行的结果显示，美联储料将在12月再次升息，2018年再升息三次。随着美联储寻求货币政策回归正常化，预计美联储资产负债表规模未来数年内将减少约1.4Trillion US dollars.


XAU London Gold - 美国升息预期升温打压金价

金价周四落至逾三周最低，因美元走高，且美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息的预期升温，抑制了市场对黄金的偏好。美联储的声明意外的乐观，坚持对2017Year and2018年的升息看法，这让市场感到意外。利率升高倾向于提振美元和推高公债收益率，从而令黄金承压。

金价周一跌破了起延自七月份的上升趋向线以及25天平均线支撑，反映行整体走势仍处偏软发展。由7month10Daily low1204.45USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的上行趋势的50%and61.8%的回吐水平将会看至1281and1263美元，将为支撑参考。另一方面，上方阻力则预估在1304and1312，较大阻力估计为1325Horizontal.
      
London Gold9month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1290 - 1304
Resistance level:1312 - 1325
Support bit:1282 – 1262

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton
9month1Day -831.21ton
9month4Day -831.21ton
9month5Day -840.08ton
9month6Day -837.12ton
9month7Day -836.87ton
9month8Day -834.50ton
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价延续弱势

伦敦白银方面，RSI及随机指数重新回落；下方支持料为16.80and16.50美元。若果以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调为16.93and16.54Expand to61.8%by16.14美元。上方阻力参考17.40，较大阻力则料为17.70and18.20USD.

London Silver9month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.80 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.20
Support bit:16.50 – 16.10

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton
9month1Day - 10304.24ton
9month4Day - 10304.24ton
9month5Day - 10299.95ton
9month6Day - 10202.97ton
9month7Day - 10173.58ton
9month8Day - 10173.58ton
9month11Day - 10173.58ton
9month12Day - 10173.58ton
9month13Day - 10173.58ton
9month14Day - 10173.58ton
9month15Day - 10173.58ton
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)