Crossing the Sea 2017year9month14day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

14

day

EUR euro - 美元涨势暂歇，市场关注美国通胀数据

市场的短期焦点放在美国周四稍晚将发布的通胀数据，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)在考虑下一次升息的时间时，将密切关注通胀情况。美国8Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)料较上年同期上升1.6%This will be2015年初以来的最低升幅，7Monthly rise1.7%。美联储的通胀率目标为2%，而一连串低迷的通胀数据已令外界对美联储今年再次升息的预期受创，并打击美元。

技术图表所见，预料欧元兑美元较近支持先会回看1.1920水平；而汇价自年初以来一直反复上扬，而近期更依随着25天平均线往上攀升，目前25The balance moving average is at1.1860，需留意倘若后市失守此区，则欧元料会面临较大幅度调整，下延支持可参考1.1710and1.16水平。反之，若欧元可重新回稳于1.20关口之上，则整段上升行情仍可望延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200Monthly average line1.2370亦可作为一阻力参考。

Focus:
9month14day(four): France8monthHICPFinal value‧Italy8monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value
9month15day(five): Germany8Monthly wholesale price index‧eurozone7Monthly trade balance‧Annual labor cost rate for the second quarter of the Eurozone‧薪资年率

Related news
欧元区第二季就业人口较前季上升0.4%, up from the same period last year1.6%
Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较前月上升0.1%
Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较上年同期上升1.8%(Reuters survey estimates an increase1.8%)
Germany8monthHICP终值较前月上升0.2%, up from the same period last year1.8%
Germany8月批发物价较前月上涨0.3%, up from the same period last year3.2%
France8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)The final value has increased compared to the previous month0.6%
France8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较上年同期上涨1.0%   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2000 – 1.2170 – 1.2370
support 1.1920 – 1.1860* – 1.1710 – 1.1600



JPY yen - 加息预期削弱，美元维持弱势

美元兑日圆上周跌至10Month low point107.32，因忧心飓风伊尔玛及朝鲜问题，但本周回升，因冒险意愿改善、且美国公债收益率攀高。市场短期焦点是美国通胀数据。在美联储考虑下次升息时机之际，通胀数据对其而言非常重要。美国8Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)预料将较上年同期上涨1.6%，这将创下2015年初以来最小涨幅，7月时为上涨1.7%。美联储的通胀率目标为2%，一系列低迷的通胀数据降低了对美联储今年将再次升息的预期，并打击美元。

技术走势而言，预估美元兑日圆整体上仍继续陷于108to112区间争持，而上周之破位仅视为假突破，后市需待明确破位后才见较明确方向，建议投资者静心等待，估计美元兑日圆即将迎来一轮破位后的单边大行情。倘若向下破位，下试目标预估可至107.20，关键直指105Gateway and103.50。另一边厢，倘若向上突破，下级关注为112.90and114.50水平，较大阻力则参考今年初高位118.60。

Focus:
9month14day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan7月工业生产修订月率‧产能利用率指数修订月率
9month15day(five): Japan9Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

Related news
Japan8月批发物价较上年同期上涨2.9%
Japan8月国内企业物价指数较上年同期上升2.9%, unchanged from the previous month
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 109.50 – 110.00 – 112.00
support 108.80 – 107.20 – 105.00



GBP pound - 英国央行宣布货币政策决定前英镑持稳

英镑兑美元持稳在1.32水平，在创下一年高位1.3329后，英镑周三走势蹒跚，因投资人在周四英国央行政策决议前获利了结。英国央行即将公布最新政策声明，外界普遍预期决策者料将维持利率在纪录低位0.25%不变。但众所关注的是英国央行首席经济学家及货币政策委员会(MPC)委员霍尔丹，看看他是否会改弦易辙，加入其他两位MPC委员行列。这两位委员在去年降息25个基点的决议中投下反对票，但未能扭转局面。

技术图表所见，英镑兑美元已升破了8month3Daily high1.3264，在此期间已形成一组U型反弹行情，倘若汇价可持稳于此颈线上方，配合10天平均线已突破25天平均线，可望英镑延续升势。上方目标先看1.33，下一级则参考去年9month6Daily high1.3445To the extent that1.35Horizontal. The supporting materials below are1.3110and1.30关口，关键预估为25Balance moving average1.2950Horizontal.

Focus:
9month13day(three): UK8Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧平均每周薪资所得‧UK as of6月三个月按ILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
9month14day(four): UK9Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3445
support 1.3110 - 1.3000 -1.2950



CHF Swiss franc - 央行维持政策不变

瑞士央行周四宣布，维持活期存款利率在负0.75%不变，维持三个月LIBORThe target interval is negative0.25%-负1.25%不变，称必要时将在汇市保持活跃，同时将整体货币情势纳入考虑。

技术图表所见，上方需留意100天平均线，在上月多次探试亦未有上破，目前处于0.97水平，换言之，若后市汇价突破此区，则此段升势或会先告暂缓；较近阻力则会指向25Balance moving average0.9610。至于下方支持先会瞩目于0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此，若可跌破此区，预料延伸跌幅可至0.9320，进一步则会参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251even to the extent that0.90Gateway.

Related news
Switzerland8Monthly Producer/进口物价较前月上升0.3%, up from the same period last year0.6%

Focus:
9month14day(four)：瑞士第三季利率目标区间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9610 – 0.9700*
support 0.9400* – 0.9320 – 0.900



AUD AUD - 受就业数据提振

澳元周四跳涨，因澳洲就业数据超过预期，并帮助抵消了美元涨势的影响。澳洲公布数据显示，8月经季节调整后就业人口增加5.42Ten thousand people, creating2015year10月以来最大增幅，也超过路透调查预估的增加1.5万人。但失业率仍为5.6%，因求职者增加，带动就业参与率创下2012年以来最高。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，在之前四周大部分时间处于0.78to0.80区间，目前向上破位后，若后市仍何继续稳企稳于0.80关口上方，预料澳元兑美元将可延展升势。较大阻力则可留意0.8170and0.83水平。至于下方支持将回看0.78水平；若以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610。

Related news
NAB: Australia8月企业现况指数升至正15
NAB: Australia8Monthly corporate confidence index drops to positive5
Australia9monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index rising2.5%to97.9
Australia8月经季节调整后就业人口增加5.42ten thousand people
Australia8月经季节调整后失业率为5.6%
Australia8Increase in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation4.01ten thousand people
Australia8月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.3%   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8170 – 0.8300
support 0.8000 – 0.7800 – 0.7720 – 0.7610



NZD New Zealand dollars - Horizontal plate to be changed

纽元兑美元交投在0.73水平，稍稍脱离上周五触及的一个月高点0.7338美元。在新西兰进行大选前，投资者近来离场观望。反 对党领袖JacindaArdern与总理英格利希的支持率不相上下。图表走势所见，纽元月初于200天平均线获见支撑，目前处于0.7135，将视为关键，若后市跌破此区，纽元将延续弱势。倘若以五月低位0.6818至七月高位0.7557的累积升幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至0.71。而据顶部与颈线的相距幅度357点计算，下延的技术目标则可至0.6843。另一方面，上方阻力先回看50Balance moving average0.7320，关键阻力则指向0.75Horizontal.

Related news
新西兰第二季经季节调整批发销售较前季增长1.7%，实质批发销售同比增长6%
New Zealand8月食品价格指数上升0.6%, up from the same period last year2.3%

Focus:
9month15day(five): New Zealand8月制造业表现指数   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7230 – 0.7500
support 0.7135 – 0.7100 – 0.6840



CAD Cad - Exploration1.20Gateway

美元兑加元明确地摆脱了1.24这个支撑关口，而且10Sky shattering25天平均线形成利淡交叉，MACD亦已下破讯号线，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数维持下行，均示意着美元兑加元仍会继续延伸近三个多月来的弱势，下探支持将会看至1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916To the extent that1.18水平。上方阻力则会回看1.24and25Balance moving average1.2530Horizontal.

Focus:
9month14day(four): Canada7Monthly New Housing Price Index
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2400 – 1.2530
support 1.2000 – 1.1916 – 1.1800


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)