Crossing the Sea 2017year9month19day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

19

day

Focus this week:
9month19day(Tuesday)
U.S.A7Monthly overall net capital flow
U.S.A7月外国购买美国公债
美国第二季流动帐平衡
U.S.A8Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A8Monthly housing construction starts
U.S.A8Monthly import price rate
U.S.A8月出口物价月率

9month20day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Sales

9month21day(Thursday)
US Federal Funds Rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A7monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

9month22day(Friday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:  
17：00 Germany9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧Predict positive12.5‧Front value positive10.0
17：00 Germany9monthZEWCurrent situation index‧forecast86.8‧Front value positive86.7
20：30 美国第二季流动帐平衡‧forecast1,151A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value1,168A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly building permit annual rate‧forecast122.010000 households‧Previous value123.010000 households
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly building permit rate‧Previous value-3.5%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast117.510000 households‧Previous value115.510000 households
20：30 U.S.A8月房屋开工月率‧Previous value-4.8%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly import price rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A8月出口物价月率‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 Canada7Monthly manufacturing sales rate‧forecast-1.6%‧Previous value-1.8%



News of the Week
Monday/美国防部长暗示存在对朝鲜诉诸武力的选项，但未提供细节

U.S.A7月整体资本净流出73USD100mn
U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is64
  

9month18day
LondongoldMorning order price:1314.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1312.10


Today's Introduction

美联储周二稍晚将召开为期两天的会议，预期将开始缩减4.5万亿美元的资产负债表，开始时间可能在今年。投资者目前正屏息以待美联储可能发出更为强硬的声明，此前英国央行上周突然谈到可能加息颇令市场意外。美联储料维持利率不变，不过投资者将关注关于今年再次升息机率以及2018年料升息几次的新鲜线索。市场目前预期12月升息的机率大约50%。

日本央行周四也将召开例行政策会议，市场普遍预期，尽管经济温和复苏，但通胀依然积弱难返，央行料将维持现状。投资者还将讨论，若日本提前大选，可能对市场产生的影响。据政府和执政党消息人士透露，首相安倍晋三正在考虑最早于下月进行提前选举，以抓住自身支持率走升和主要反 对党陷入混乱的机会。



XAU London Gold - 金价探试千三关口，市场静待美联储会议

金价过去一周反复走低，周一跌见至1304.10美元，尚见险守着1300美元关口。投资者静待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)即将召开的为期两天的政策会议，以期从中找到美国收紧货币政策步伐的线索。外界普遍预期在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)为期两天的会议上，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)将宣布缩减资产负债表的计划，但暂时不会升息。市场还关注关于美联储下次升息时机的线索，因为这会提振美元和推高债券收益率，打压金价。

金价周一跌破了起延自七月份的上升趋向线以及25天平均线支撑，反映行整体走势仍处偏软发展。下个支撑点料为1299美元，，这是7month10Daily low1204.45USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的上行趋势的38.2%回吐位， 50%and61.8%的回吐水平将会看至1281and1263美元。另一方面，上方阻力则预估在1310and1315，较大阻力估计为1325Horizontal.

London Gold9month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1299 – 1310
Resistance level:1315* – 1325 – 1341
Support bit:1293 – 1285 – 1277

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton
9month1Day -831.21ton
9month4Day -831.21ton
9month5Day -840.08ton
9month6Day -837.12ton
9month7Day -836.87ton
9month8Day -834.50ton
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈回调风险

伦敦白银方面，RSI及随机指数亦大幅度下冲，料银价短期有进一步回吐压力，降着上升趋向线失守，料将面临更具规模之下跌。以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调为16.93and16.54Expand to61.8%by16.14美元。上方阻力则参考17.30，较大阻力则料为17.50and17.90USD.

London Silver9month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.80  17.30
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.90
Support bit:16.60 – 16.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton
9month1Day - 10304.24ton
9month4Day - 10304.24ton
9month5Day - 10299.95ton
9month6Day - 10202.97ton
9month7Day - 10173.58ton
9month8Day - 10173.58ton
9month11Day - 10173.58ton
9month12Day - 10173.58ton
9month13Day - 10173.58ton
9month14Day - 10173.58ton
9month15Day - 10173.58ton
9month18Day - 10141.26ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)