pound/The US dollar is consolidating after its latest surge

According to the latest CME Market probability, the United States may end next year 5 The interest rate will be lowered starting from the beginning of the month, and it has been included in the current calculation 2024 Annual total 5 Second rate cut 25 Basis points.More and more people believe that US economic growth will slow down in the coming months, coupled with a slowdown in inflation, and the Federal Reserve's actions will be faster than initially expected.This week we will once again focus on the US Gross Domestic Product and the latest US inflation report, which will guide the market in the coming days.

Chicago Chamber of Commerce Federal Fund Expectations

In contrast, UK interest rate expectations indicate a first-time rate cut 25 A basis point has been fully reflected in 8 At the monthly meeting, the bank interest rates were lowered for the whole year 71 Basis points.The recent comments from the Bank of England warn that the UK inflation rate may remain above the target level for a longer period of time than previously expected, thereby weakening the impact on 2024 Expected interest rates for the first half of the year.

With the enhanced expectation of interest rate cut, the yield of two-year US treasury bond bonds sensitive to interest rates fell sharply this week and has now returned to 7 The level of the month.From a technical perspective, the yield has already increased200The daily simple moving average rebounded, and it is necessary to hold onto this point to prevent further decline in yields.This weakness is slowing downdollar。

U.S.A2Daily chart of yield of one-year treasury bond bonds

With the slight rise of the pound, the US dollar is under pressure, and the pound has continuously hit new weekly highs in the past few weeks.The currency pair tested and broke through last week 200 The daily moving average has broken through at the same time 50% Fibonacci retracement position.The interest level of this currency pair is currently between two levels 1.2667 and 1.2742 between.

pound/Daily USD Price Chart

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Retail trader data shows that,40.34%The trader is a net long, and the ratio of short to long is1.48:1The net number of long positions has decreased compared to yesterday13.16%, decreased compared to last week19.65%The net number of long positions decreased compared to yesterday13.16%, decreased compared to last week19.65%Net short positions of traders increased compared to yesterday2.12%, increased compared to last week14.66%。