The central bank: two-way floating is normal. Don't gamble on unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate

      9month28Daily news whole countryforeign exchangeMarket self-discipline mechanism video conference9month27Held on. The meeting analyzed the recent operation of the foreign exchange market and deployed to strengthen self-discipline management. Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, China Foreign Exchange Market Steering Committee（CFXC）Chairman Liu Guoqiang attended and delivered a speech. The meeting pointed out that the RMB exchange rate has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level since the beginning of this year.CFETSComparison of RMB exchange rate index2021At the end of the year, it remained basically unchanged. The RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, but the depreciation is only half of the appreciation of the US dollar during the same period; The Chinese yuan has significantly appreciated against the euro, pound sterling, and yen, making it one of the few strong currencies in the world.

The meeting emphasized that the foreign exchange market is of great importance and maintaining stability is the first priority. The RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for maintaining basic stability. Compared to many economies facing the risk of stagflation, China's economy as a whole continues to recover and develop, with price levels basically stable and trade surplus expected to remain high. With the emergence of macroeconomic policy effects, the economic fundamentals will become more solid. The current RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is suitable for China's national conditions and can fully leverage the "two hands" of the market and government. It has withstood multiple rounds of external shocks in history, and the People's Bank of China has accumulated rich experience in response, which can effectively manage market expectations. The current foreign exchange market is generally operating in a standardized and orderly manner, but there are also a few enterprises following the trend of "foreign exchange speculation" and financial institutions operating in violation of regulations. Therefore, guidance and correction should be strengthened. It must be recognized that the position of the exchange rate is unpredictable, and bidirectional fluctuations are the norm. Do not bet on unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, as long-term bets will inevitably lead to losses.