The market is no longer hopeful that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of next year

　    Cailian Society9month1Daily News (Editor Liu Rui)Under the recent "hawk" winds from Federal Reserve officials, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut next year have gradually cooled.

According to the research companyDataTrekThe market currently expects the Federal Reserve to2023The possibility of policies in the first half of the year is almost zero, but there is still a "bright spot" supporting stock prices in the market: the market still holds confidence in the cooling of US inflation.

　　The Federal Reserve predicts that interest rate cuts are almost impossible in the first half of next year

Wednesday Eastern Time,DatatrekCo founder Nicholas Krass（Nicholas Colas）According to their survey, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate to rise by the end of this year, according to a report released3.75%-4%The probability is64%, to2023year6The probability that the Federal Reserve interest rate will remain within this range at the end of the month's Federal Reserve meeting is41%。

Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is at2.25%to2.5%Range, which means the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year150Base point.

Previously, several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, had repeatedly released hawkish signals in their speeches, and most market participants expected the Fed to9Monthly or interest rate increase50or75Basis points.

Also on Wednesday Eastern Time, Cleveland Federal Reserve Governor Meister has stated that she expects the federal funds rate to stand by early next year4%And at least within2023There will be no interest rate cut this year.

　　“The Federal Reserve2023The possibility of a 'policy shift' to lower interest rates in the first half of this year is now basically zeroKrass said, but this does not necessarily mean that US stocks will definitely fall.

　　Does the market still have confidence in the inflation outlook?

Under the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials overnight, US bond yields rose on Wednesday. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Wednesday3.2%, the yield of two-year treasury bond bonds soared on Wednesday5.1Basis point report3.503%This further exacerbates the inversion of US bond yields.

The inversion of US bond yields usually means that the market expects the possibility of the US economy falling into recession to increase, which is a disadvantageous factor for the market.

But Krass mentioned that although the two-year US Treasury yield has exceeded this year's6Created in the month3.43%Set a new high point15New highs in recent years, but10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds is currently lower than before6month3.48%The high point of has a certain distance.

10Trend of one-year US Treasury yields

Trend of two-year US Treasury yields

He believes that this is a "bright spot" worth paying attention to, indicating that the market is better than before6At the time of the month, there is already more confidence and it is expected that in the long run, the Federal Reserve's policies will reduce inflation.

Under other unchanged conditions, this supports stock prices, as mentioned earlier, which is an implicit vote of confidence in the market for the Federal Reserve to successfully curb inflation