陈音卓涵：两岸猿声啼不住 轻舟已过万重

   江苏中苏时讯：美联储4月加息概率上升 本周开盘金价涨势不减
     
      4month11日讯，美联储网站4month7日发出通知，根据快速会议程序，将于当地时间周一(4month11day)上午11:30在华盛顿召开美联储董事会议，讨论和决定美联储的贴现率问题。




      对这一看似不疼不痒的消息，此前花旗投研全球数量研究部人士表示，距离上次美联储召开紧急会议是在2015year11Month, 而后不到1个月即开始十年后第一次加息(2015year12month17day)。言下之意，看似被市场排除加息可能性的4月又将成为一个聚焦点?加息和缩表又当如何权衡?


　　据议程，美联储将于当地时间4month26~27日召开议息会议，此后将公布4月利率决议。当前多数经济学家预计，美联储将在6月加息。


　　加之，此前四代美联储主席聚首，进行了一场跨越美联储37年历史的经典对话，四人都对美国自金融危机以来的复苏和未来经济走势表示乐观。


Last year12OfFOMC声明中也写道，委员会将维持美联储持有机构债券、MBS和到期国债拍卖后再投资本金的滚动投资政策。委员会预计，会维持该政策直至联邦基金利率水平的正常化取得顺利进展。该政策下，委员会将持有大量长期证券，有助于维持市场宽松的金融环境。


　　照此来看，去年12月的加息只是正常化进程的第一步，FOMCof17位官员的预期中值显示，2016Annual interest rate hike2Times.


This Monday(4month11day)goods in stockgold市场开盘便持续高涨，或受避险情绪的助推，金价和日元捧，目前金价交投于1244.74USD, up0.42%;现货白银上涨至15.363USD, increase0.10%;在黄金市场连续上涨两周之后，本周也将迎来考验，黄金能否维持涨势还需要关注美联储今日的的会议消息。


The world's largest goldETF-SPDR Gold Trust周五持仓较上日减少1.79Tons, decrease in magnitude0.22%, to817.81ton
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