Shan Chenjin:1.29黄金大起大落，日内行情走势分析 ​

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Shan Chenjin:1.29gold大起大落，日内行情走势分析
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Summary:过去的一周，现货黄金周初延续上涨行情，上周四（1month26日）因特朗普发表强势美元言论，令美元强势攀升，金价短线暴跌近20美元。不过，随后该言论逐渐被市场消化，加上周五美国经济数据喜忧参半，美元因此重拾跌势，金价企稳反弹，一周累计上涨1.32%。


--International News Analysis--

特朗普对汇率避而不谈美元走软提振金价


Last Friday（1month26日）特朗普在达沃斯论坛上的讲话没有提及美元，甚至一改此前作风，称美国仍然对商业保持开放，打消了外界对贸易保护主义的疑虑。虽然特朗普对汇率避而不谈，但市场仍然对特朗普的“美国优先”贸易立场感到担忧，美元因此持续走软，金银获利好上行。


日央行行长意外抢镜日元攀升利空美元


上周五日本央行行长黑田东彦在达沃斯论坛的讲话中称，有部分迹象表明薪资正在上扬，日本最终将接近2%的通胀目标。受此影响，美元兑日元一度短线跌超130点至四个半月低位108.29，刷新去年9The lowest level since the beginning of the month.


单晨金小结：上周五特朗普在达沃斯的演讲可谓“风平浪静”，美国都着眼于贸易问题、而非汇率本身;鉴于要提振出口，他们不想希望美元强势。而考虑到自12月中旬以来黄金的强劲表现，金价出现回调是意料之中，这有助于现货黄金在长期来继续上涨。在上周黄金大起大落之后，目前市场看涨情绪依然强烈，本周消息面众多，投资者需密切关注，我个人的观点看好本周现货黄金走一个探底回升，中长线依然看涨。具体关注单晨金唯訫scj366Timely understanding of market information, grasping the overall trend, and helping you make steady profits.


--现货黄金行情回顾--


周一探底回升十字星，周二小阳线，周三突破了1344-1345高点大阳放量拉高，周四早盘冲高欧盘回落，美盘和夜间过山车冲高暴跌收中阴，周五如期修正偏调整的小阳线。单周波幅接近38dollar.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


整体近期的行情，周线连续7个周只有一根调整阴，五连阳之后上上周小阴回撤，上周继续转阳。周线级别我们讲了中期一个极强多头格局走势，1236reach1366Increase130美金。当然我们提到太强的趋势也有调整，所以这周整体思路中线看涨不变，周线级别近期守住1340-1338看多不变。日线短线来看，上周三大阳放量之后，周四破高回落收中阴，周五如期纺锤阳调整。那么今日我们先考虑四小时的调整信号，小时线的区间整理思路，关注1348-1347Support.


这周行情我们需要注意几个点：

1.消息面上后半周消息比较多，ADP数据，失业金，非农数据。这个从我的思路上来看，美元熊市极弱空头走法，数据难改变这个局面，所以我认为大概率对黄金的影响探底回升，借助消息完成下探。


2.技术面上黄金关注两个点位。


One is1340-1337区域支撑，守住这个位置周线强势不变，整体中期和这周我们偏多思路。其次就是短线1348-1347的支撑，上周五的整理低点，前半周下破这个区域将震荡回落测试1340-1338，不破这个位置先看1347-1356的区间整理。


单晨金综合来看：今天开盘我们先看1356-1347的区间整理思路，这个也是我们上周五提到的思路，下方支撑1342-1340重点关注。如果跌破考虑接下来去测试1330-1328区域之后再度反弹。原则上就是考虑回调和防止调整，但是不去猜顶和考虑反转，中长期看涨思路暂时不变，尽管短线不排除高位反复和调整需求。具体关注单晨金唯訫scj366Timely understanding of market information, grasping the overall trend, and helping you make steady profits.


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1、下方不破1348-1347Long, stop loss1343Target to see1353-1356


2、上方冲击1356Short selling, stop loss1360, Objective1350-1348


Why can't you hold onto the profit order while I can?


1.The overall structure and framework of the market are not clear, and there is no overall prediction and thinking to follow the market. So I don't know the direction of the future development of the market, so when the market falls, I am bearish, and when it rises, I am bullish, and my thinking is constantly changing. Simply put, it's just that the strength is not enough, and without a particularly clear teacher's guidance, it's natural that if there are slight fluctuations, you won't be able to hold onto the order.


2.The position is too large and there is no good awareness of fund management.


Heavy warehouse, full warehouse, I'm afraid no one can hold onto the order unless you don't care about the outcome, don't care about the money, only care about the process of stimulation. Learn to have a good risk control awareness, control positions well, and not exceed10-15%, general5-8%Strict stop loss measures for light positions will gradually improve everyone's mentality.


3.flighty and impetuous.


Don't make an order, enter in a hurry, make an order, exit in a hurry. If you stare at the market, you won't move your eyes. If you short, you want the market to fall, and if you do too much, you want the market to rise immediately. All profits and wealth depend on time to accumulate.

分类行情，不同的行情类型，采用对应的操作手法。我们不能用趋势行情的思路去做整理，这样只会陷入追涨杀跌的被动之中。也不能用整理行情的思路去做趋势，这样就会犯猜顶抓底的被动逆势。所以最难的行情就是拐点和趋势运行一定阶段之后的行情，这个阶段有可能延续原有趋势，也有可能变盘形成反转，所以尽管高位反复，但是实际操作过程中往往被前期趋势的环境所干扰。那么在这种情况下要么选择自己的观点，要么考虑盈亏比，要么选择跟随。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


σ-σ：330-5379-776V-Letter:scj366


The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.