Tesla beat sales and revenue after soaring Free cash flow and said it would deliver this year50Ten thousand cars will be "even more difficult"

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Entering today's Tesla financial report conference call, in this situation,GLJofGordon JohnsonA question was raised:TSLAIs tonight's financial report important? As Johnson responded,"It's not important. Why do you say that? okConsensusthinkTSLAstay20In the third quarter of the yearEPSby31c/hr。 Most importantly, about16c/hrAbout2$100 million is a one-time credit sale that will disappear by the end of this year, so it is not worth obtaining multiples......You place multiples on recurring profits instead of one-time profits. Therefore,TSLAOur core business is manufacturing cars, which seems to be set asEPSabout15c/hr, or approximately60c/hrThe annualization of. withTSLAToday's stock price calculation, the P/E ratio is approximately700Times. This means thatTSLAofEPSIn the future (at least)5Within the year, it should be700%The average annual growth rate of."


Johnson continued to ask "Is this realistic"And answer that "At Standard&Poor's500Exponential505None of the companies in the past5Mid year profit700%ofCAGRGrowth. What is the conclusion?TSLASeriously overestimated,10-20c/hrYield of/Mistakes are meaningless. In other words, in approximately700Under a multiple price to earnings ratio,TSLAThe pricing is not perfect......Its pricing is impossible."


Why is this important? Because just likeGLJAs the strategist said,2020The sales of electric vehicles in the European Union (the most fiercely competitive electric vehicle market in the world) increased by approximately100%HoweverTSLASales volume of2020Year-on-year decrease-14%。" let me put it another way,TSLANot only is their share declining, but they have also not seen growth in the world's most important electric vehicle market, Europe. At the same time, in what should have beenTSLAChina, the main growth market,TSLApast times3Last month's sales were lower than production, and their sales in ChinaNEVMarket share has also increased from2020year3Of20.1%Descend to2020year9Of7.9%。 And despiteTSLAThis year, it has lowered its car prices by about13Made in China["MIC"]Model 3The price in China isYTDDescending30%）But all of this happened. in fact,TSLANow we are about toMIC 3The model car is being shipped to the European Union, indicating that although the price of the car has decreased30%But China's demand does not exist at all.


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Of course, not everyone will agree. For those who are concerned about financial reports, the following is Wall Street's consensus expectation for the third quarter.


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At the same time, after causing its stock price to soar in the first half of this year, option traders seem to have taken second place: according to Bloomberg, the volatility of the electric vehicle manufacturer has been plummeting since the high demand from retail investors in the summer led to a surge in option prices. Oppenheimer's Head of Institutional Equity DerivativesAlon RosinReported that the volatility achieved in ten days has decreased to36Around, compared to a month ago72The level has dropped50%There are signs that the interest of retail investors may be weakening.


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From the perspective of options, the current price range indicates that the stock price will be combined with the reported changes7.8%。 This is different from the past8In reports7.8%The average trend is consistent, with a decline exceeding an increase at that time, with a proportion of5than3。


So, after all that, here is Tesla's second quarter report just released.


Q3GAAPEarnings per share76cent Compared to the same period last year0.37USD growth105% Higher than expected55cent.
Third quarter revenue87.7100 million US dollars, year-on-year growth39%Also higher than expected82.6USD100mn
Adjusted net profit for the third quarter874Million yuan, annual increase156%But like last season, nearly half of it is attributed to397Regulatory deduction of millions of yuan; meanwhileGAAPNet profit only331Million yuan, lower than the total regulatory deduction amount.
Free cash flow in the third quarter was13.95Billion US dollars, expected to be11USD100mn
Here are all the data for the third quarter's performance.


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When it comes to its39%When revenue grew, the company stated that,"This is mainly achieved through a significant increase in vehicle delivery and growth in other business segments. Meanwhile, as our product structure continues to shift fromModel SandModel XMoving towards more affordable optionsModel 3andModel YAverage selling price of vehicles（ASP）There is a slight decrease compared to the same period last year."


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Strangely, for a company that has a growth outlook that exceeds the combined valuation of most other global automakers and is larger than the entire US and European automotive industry, even after this quarter's rebound, people will expect more revenue growth. In fact, if you don't consider registering for the Gold Experience website, Tesla's rolling4Quarterly Automotive Revenue Growth(Deduct registration and send experience gold to the official website)At best, it is also weak.


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Another point is that usersfly4datRegulatory credit.


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There are still some details in the second quarter financial report.


Third quarter automobile gross profit margin+27.7% vs. Annually+22.8%。
Third quarter cash and cash equivalents145.3100 million US dollars, year-on-year53100 million US dollars, expected129.3USD100mn
Third quarter capital expenditure10.1RMB100mn
Although on the surface, Tesla reported its fifth consecutive quarterly profit, this consecutive profit may have led to Tesla's inclusion in S&P500The index adds momentum, but as mentioned above, it is quite significant397MMUSD (year-on-year growth)197%In nonGAAPSlightly lower proportion of net income50%）From the sale of regulatory credit. This amount is slightly lower than the record set in the previous quarter428Million US dollars.


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Robert W. BairdAnalyst forBen Kalloexpress:"Regulatory credit isEPSThe important part of winning."But he added:"This is part of the game. Tesla's competitors are paying them fees Tesla is reinvesting these costs into factories in Berlin and Texas"


Put this number in the context,TSLAReportedGAAPRevenue is331MMThis is entirely due to397MMofregDeduction.


From the perspective of gross profit margin, this quarter's gross profit margin growth exceeded250bps, reaching23.5%And the operating profit margin has increased to9.2%。 This is for Musk2.9In the case of achieving a reward target of one billion US dollars. As Tesla explains, profit margins benefit from "Better fixed cost absorption"Just likeBBGAs explained, this means that once you establish and operate the factory, the more cars you produce, the more money you invest.


"What jumps out of me is the gross profit margin,"Gene MunsterSay."This is a machine that maintains machine growth. They made more money from each car. Additionally,2021The upcomingSemi TruckIt's a surprise for me."


The company also stated that it is increasingModel 3/Model YAfter the production capacity of the device, its2020Annual delivery50The plan of ten thousand cars remains the goal.


"We have already installed production and delivery this year50The production capacity of ten thousand cars. Although achieving this goal has become more difficult2020Annual delivery50Ten thousand cars are still our goal."


Tesla is expected to reach full production by the end of this year or early next year.


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It is worth noting that the factory located in Fremont, California can now produce annually59Ten thousand cars.5010000 vehicles3/Y，910000 old modelsSandX, higher than the previous quarter's4910000 vehicles（3/YType is40Ten thousand vehicles). The current production capacity of the Shanghai factory is25Ten thousand vehicles, compared to the previous quarter's20There has been an increase of ten thousand vehicles.


Anyway, in order to achieve50Tesla must deliver the target of 10000 vehicles in the fourth quarter18Only ten thousand cars can achieve this goal. This may explain why the company warned at the top of its financial report that,"Achieving this goal has become even more difficult"。


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Take this18Putting together the numbers of ten thousand, Tesla's total delivery volume for this quarter is139593Vehicles, with a total production capacity of82272Vehicle.


And this is a microcosm of Tesla's total production and delivery volume.


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Model S/XI'm almost dead.


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The only thing that can keep Tesla alive isModel 3。


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Tesla also stated that it has sufficient liquidity to fund its product roadmap, and added that deliveries in Berlin and Shanghai will take place on2021Starting from the year.


Shanghai


Model 3The annual production capacity has been increased to25Ten thousand vehicles. We will offer discountedModel 3Price reduction24.99Ten thousand yuan, becoming the lowest priced high-end medium-sized sedan in China1。 This is not only due to the lower cost of batteries, but also to the improvement of local procurement level. Due to changes in cost and starting price, we have recentlyModel 3The factory has added a third production shift.


Berlin-Brandenburg


BerlinGigafactoryThe construction of continues to advance rapidly. The building is under construction and equipment will begin to be stationed in the coming weeks. Meanwhile,Giga BerlinThe team is also constantly growing. Expected to be on2021Production began in.


One big surprise in the report is Tesla's Free cash flow418MMSoaring to a record breaking third quarter13.95BNUS dollar, unexpected on Wall Street, Wall Street expectedFCFby11BNUSD.


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Also worth noting is that Tesla recorded13Accounts payable surged by $billion.


Thanks to positive Free cash flow and the company's50BNStocks in US dollars, with impressive cash growth, achieved145Billion US dollars, an increase of nearly6BNThe US dollar means that Tesla has no problem meeting its debt maturity. However, as some have pointed out, the increase in cash60How can interest income increase from $100 million8MMDescend to6MMWhat about it?


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And by the way, Tesla perfectly replaced itself50Billion dollar stock issuance: The average price of issuance is449dollar/The current trading price of Tesla is approximately432USD.


Although it is a secondary business, Tesla stated that,"With increasing concerns about the stability of the power grid, especially in California, people are concerned aboutPowerwallOur interest is accelerating"This occurred during a rolling power outage in California.


Looking ahead, Tesla's statement is that TeslaSemiWill be on2021Delivery begins in the year. However, as reminded by Bloomberg,SemiIt's in the2017It made its debut in the autumn of that year.


So what is the market's judgment? In the knee jerk reaction, Tesla's stock trading volume increased, but compared to the previous surge after financial reports, it only slightly increased, and the final trading price was437dollar/Stock, back to3The previous day's level. In fact, after digesting the early market surge, the stock price has now almost returned to a constant level.


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