ZFXShanhai Securities: Gold price surges and falls back! Long Short Battle5000Pass!

Wednesday（2month4Day)goldThe market staged a thrilling rollercoaster ride, with spot gold soaring past its peak earlier on Wednesday3%, touching every ounce5091.63The high level of the US dollar quickly turned downwards, reaching its lowest point4853Near the US dollar, the daily fluctuations are astonishing. In the end, spot gold barely closed up0.3%Report4963.54The US dollar. Thursday（2month5In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold was traded4976Around the US dollar.


1、 The US dollar is strengthening

The first pressure on the rise and fall of gold prices this time comes from the strong performance of the US dollar. The US dollar index is hovering around a high for over a week, making gold priced in US dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, which directly suppresses demand for overseas buying. An expert bluntly stated, "The US dollar has indeed rebounded, and its strength is putting pressure on gold


The strength of the US dollar is driven by the resilience demonstrated by data from the US service industry. Supply Management Association（ISM）The report shows that the United States1Monthly non manufacturing industryPMIStable in53.8At the same time, the increase in investment costs has raised concerns in the market about the possible rebound of inflation in the service industry. This subtle change in economic data temporarily provides support for the US dollar, thus creating a ceiling effect on gold.

2、 Analysts are optimistic about the gold price


The latest survey shows that analysts have raised their expectations one after another2026The forecast for the annual gold price shows that the median average price has reached one ounce per ounce4746.50The US dollar is the highest annual forecast in over a decade since the launch of this survey. The logic supporting this optimistic outlook remains unchanged: high global geopolitical uncertainty and sustained strong gold buying behavior by central banks around the world to achieveforeign exchangeDiversification of reserves, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, doubts about the sustainability of the massive US debt, and the global trend towards de dollarization.

Deutsche Bank analysts said, "The thematic driving factors for gold remain positive, and we believe that investors' reasons for allocating gold (and precious metals) will not change." Analysts expect central banks around the world to continue increasing their gold reserves to achieve diversification and reduce dependence on the US dollar.

3、 Today's Gold Technology Analysis


Technically speaking, the gold price is forming a bearish candlestick pattern with a inverted hammer head. If the price trend on Thursday is bearish, this pattern may transform into a meteor line. Relative Strength Index（RSI）It shows that although the index is still in the bullish zone, buyer momentum is weakening.

If the daily closing price of gold is lower than4900dollar/Ounces, traders may anticipate gold price testing4850dollar/Ounces, followed by4800dollar/ounce. If the gold price falls below4800dollar/Ounces may further drop2month3Intraday low point of the day4643dollar/ounce. Once it falls below this level, the Shooting Star pattern will be confirmed, and the short-term bearish trend of gold will also be confirmed. On the other hand, if the gold price remains at4950dollar/Above ounces, buyers may test again5000dollar/Ounce level.