ATFXpolular science:OPEC、OPEC+andOPECmeeting

OPECThe organization has five founding members, namely Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, established on1960The low point was established in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. InterestinglyOPECThe headquarters is not located within its own member states, but in the capital of Austria, Vienna. The reason is also very simple,OPECThere are numerous internal conflicts within member countries: Iran and Iraq have experienced the Iran Iraq War, Saudi Arabia has invaded Kuwait, Iraq participated in the attack on Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War, and Venezuela, due to its location in the Americas, did not participate in a series of wars in the Middle East. However, due to its remote geographical location, it is clearly not suitable for actionOEPCThe location of the headquarters. Since the founding member states do not trust each other, fortunately, the headquarters will be placed outside of the member states. After multiple parties agree,OPECThe headquarters is officially located in Vienna, the capital of Austria.
as time goes on,OPECThe scale is constantly expanding, and member countries have also grown to14No. Just in the2020year1In January, the former member state of Ecuador, also known as the smallest member state of OPEC, announced its secessionOPECOrganization. The reason is that the country cannot tolerate the economic recession caused by the production reduction plan, and wants to increase its oil production through "retreat". From then on,OPECThe total number of member states has decreased to13The following table summarizes the basic data of these member countries.


surface1，PPECmember state
A clear rule is that the country with the largest reserves is not the country with the highest production. Venezuela's total reserves are3028.1Billion barrels, but daily production is only40.7Ten thousand barrels; Saudi Arabia, with the highest production, only ranks second in oil reserves. Venezuela's oil production is not high, mainly due to the poor quality of its oil layers and the viscosity of the oil, which can only be extracted through the technology of Western oil companies. However, due to the unfriendly national policies towards overseas enterprises (which cannot be smoothly converted into US dollars), not many companies are willing to settle in. stay13Among member countries, daily production is below100The countries with ten thousand barrels include Congo, Gabon Republic, and Equatorial Guinea, to put it bluntly, these countries are only used to make up the numbers, which is beneficial for the international communitycrude oilThe supply side will not have much impact.
Objectively speaking,OPECThe crude oil production of each member country is not significant, and the highest Saudi Arabia is only896.3Ten thousand barrels, not yet exceeding the ten million level. However,OPECIf member countries unite to warm up, and if they can advance and retreat together, their comprehensive oil production will be unparalleled in the world. exceptOPECThere are many other major oil producing countries outside of the United States, and we can roughly list them as follows: daily crude oil production in the United States113010000 barrels, daily production of Russian crude oil101310000 barrels, Canadian crude oil daily production51410000 barrels, daily crude oil production in China38610000 barrels, daily crude oil production in Mexico187Ten thousand barrels. Especially in the United States and Russia, production is higher thanOPECThe daily production of all member countries constitutes an important component of international crude oil supply. So, when analyzing the future price trend of crude oil, one cannot just focus onOPECReduction of production/The production increase plan also needs to consider the production situation of the United States, Russia, and Canada.
The above data on the market for crude oil comes fromOPECMonthly market reports are published, and traders can log inOPECDownload and watch on the official website. In addition to the monthly report, there is another event that requires special attention, which isOPECmeeting. The meeting has decidedOPECWhether member countries will reduce production or increase production in the future cycle has important forward-looking significance for the long-term trend of existing prices.OPECThe timing of meetings is not fixed, and the number of meetings held each year varies, such as2020In, there were significant changes in the global macro economy,OPECIt was held6Meeting;2019The international environment was relatively stable in the year,OPECOnly held2Meeting. last timeOPECThe meeting was held at2021year1month4When will the next meeting be held? We still need to waitOPECThe official has given a definite time, which is currently uncertain.


chart1，2021yearOPECMeeting schedule
As can be seen from the above figure,2021year1month4The meeting on the day is“OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting”That's what we often sayOPEC+meeting. Many people would think thatOPEC+It is a collection of major oil producing countries in the world, but in reality, this is not the case, such as the United States and China, which are not included in theOPEC+among. Actually“+”Representing a group of small and medium-sized oil producing countries led by Russia, currently10Here is a list of:


surface2Russian ledOPEC+Some member states
From the perspective of oil production, only the production of Russia and Mexico in the above table can have an impact on the international crude oil supply pattern, while the rest8A country is only used to "gather numbers". andOPECCompared to others, the consortium in the above table appears more loose and performs very casually in the implementation of production reduction plans.OPECThe reason why we are willing to include these countriesOEPC+Mainly to contain Russia and avoidOPECDuring a significant reduction in production, Russia seized the opportunity to significantly increase production and seize the market. Due to this patternOPEC+The biggest highlight of the meeting is what Russia's attitude is like.

#Summary#
FutureOPEC+Perhaps it is no longer possible to fully control the international crude oil supply pattern, due to the breakthrough in shale oil technology in the United States, which may gradually transform from a major crude oil demand country to a major crude oil supply country. The latest daily demand for US dollar crude oil is1870Ten thousand barrels, while the daily supply of crude oil in the United States reaches1130Ten thousand barrels, the difference between them is74010000 barrels/day 。 You know, the United States is2005In the year, the data was140010000 barrels/Today, he has been cut off from his waist.2019year11month29Daytime,EIAAnnouncement: The United States9Monthly oil exports exceed imports. It can be seen that the United States is making great strides in extracting domestic shale oil. If one day in the future, its total crude oil production will steadily exceed the demand for crude oil, thenOPEC+Organizations may have to include the United States.

1The above analysis only represents the analyst's perspective. There are risks in the foreign exchange market and investment needs to be cautious.
2、ATFXWe will not be responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on this information.