Guo Shengshan:6.8Comprehensive trend analysis of gold and strategic layout of crude oil

goldMarket trend analysis;

Wednesday（6month8During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading in1849Near the US dollar, the World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast for this year to2.9%Moreover, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has provided some safe haven support for gold prices. The rise and fall of the US dollar index has also provided opportunities for gold to rebound. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Yellen has called the US inflation level "unacceptable" and is likely to remain high, which has also increased investor interest in gold. However, the market is generally concerned about the release of the US this week5monthCPIData, due to the United States4The decline in monthly trade deficit is the largest in nearly nine and a half years. Currently, the US dollar is relatively strong, and the US stock market is approaching a nearly month high, which may exert some pressure on gold prices. The short-term trend of gold prices is highly uncertain. Although the Federal Reserve has become increasingly hawkish, the US dollar has strengthened, and the scale of asset selling has expanded, all of which have put pressure on gold prices6The gold price at the beginning of the month is close to the level at the beginning of the year, outperforming stocks and bonds. Looking ahead to the second half of this year, despite rising risks and market uncertainty, they expect the Federal Reserve to push the economy towards a soft landing as inflation begins to cool and economic growth remains healthy. This environment will put pressure on gold prices. As policy interest rates rise and inflation decreases, Guo Shengshan; It is expected that the actual interest rates and yields will significantly increase in the second half of the year, which will put pressure on gold prices.

Technical analysis of gold: From a daily perspective, gold rebounded yesterday and held the previous day's low point1836The upper bound rebounds and recovers, with the daily line closing at the mid yang line and the double yin then turning positive. Almost regained the previous day's shadeKThe downward space of the line forms a repeated tug of war,KThe form of the line is in the exchange of yin and yang. At present, there is no obvious unilateral trend, or perhaps the unilateral strength is insufficient, entering a seesaw oscillation cycle. The uncertain weather of the US dollar also makes the short-term direction of gold look like a flower in the mist. Shaking and sawing are the main style. Gold from4Looking at the hour line,4The hour chart was previously displayed in the1858After being under pressure, the second wave downward trend continued, but the sustained strength was insufficient, with short-term twists and turns. Basically, a second wave shape would end in a small band, and at the same time, after releasing the second wave, it would pull back into the oscillation range. Yesterday, it did not go out of the oscillation range, and the moving average index scattered disorderly, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. Bulling Road has started to close, with the strength of the long and short positions continuing to be uncertain. It is still a volatile and ultra short-term approach for the day, and the main force of gold is currently trading1850Area, intraday time correction position at1858-1860Location, which will have some suppression during the day. The lower entry area below is1841-1843Among them, this position is the gathering day low of gold low level horizontal consolidation, which will have effective support. If gold rises and stabilizes1856It can be seen that there has been a significant acceleration and surge. Overall, Guo Shengshan suggests focusing on range fluctuations in today's gold trading strategy, with the top following1862-1867Resistance, pay attention below1843-1838Support.

Latestcrude oilMarket trend analysis

The oil delivery period is approaching, and the bulls are intentionally luring the bulls up. Now the technical test121reach125Pressure, this is consistent with previous analysis. In the end, the United States banned oil imports, and the maximum benefits did not break through130It indicates that stress manifests when things reach their extreme. Rebound and continue to short to meet the second gap92Area, in other words121Give you a light warehouse without hesitation, even if it's empty1Ten thousand dollars0.1The layout is also acceptable, and the total warehouse should not exceed0.3Then wait for the market news to ease, or the bulls will experience a final crazy flash crash, following the bearish trend40The same trend, now accelerating to catch up with the top, what you need to do is not to chase too much and prevent a sudden start to fall. radical120.8Participated in the empty space nearby, encountered again in the stable midline106.8Near the area, the central line has been opened for short selling, after all, the pressure is gradually moving downwards, and the following is running92Go. First encounter92reach90Multiple regional options.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.