Xiong Qingjun: Suggestions for Gold and Crude Oil Operations.Gold prices fluctuate at high levels, waiting for non-agricultural sectors to break the deadlock. Crude oil prices fluctuate upwards

Fundamentals:
In the past six months, the international gold price has fluctuated greatly, seeming to be volatile, but in reality, the overall price has remained roughly stable1200-1300Whether or not to break through this range in the second half of the year will depend not only on the attitude of the Federal Reserve, but also on the geopolitical crisis. Last week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was dovish, and the US dollar was brutally slaughtered by bears, causing gold prices to soar significantly20The US dollar, in addition to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula stimulating safe haven buying, continues to push up gold prices and refresh7Monthly high point1270dollar/Ounces. Whether the gold price can maintain its strength this week depends not only on Friday's non-agricultural data to guide attention, but also on the escalation of tensions in North Korea and the Trump political crisis, which is highly likely to trigger a new roundgoldA bull market.


The main contributor to the rise in gold prices this year is none other than Trump. One Trump caused a complete upheaval in the United States, the continuous decline of the US dollar, the slowdown of the US economy, the obstruction of Trump's policies, and the involvement in the Russia scandal are all important factors that contributed to the significant rise in gold prices. Every time gold is in a critical situation, Trump will step forward to pull gold out of the trap. However, after more than half a year of adjustment, President Trump seems to be getting worse and worse, leading to a chaotic domestic economy in the United States. In addition, the healthcare reform bill is still pending, tax reform is also pending, and the government is facing a crisis of shutdown. Abroad, he remained complacent and withdrew from the Paris Agreement, causing a complete stalemate in relations with Europe. However, Trump believed that his six-month presidency had performed very well. It can be seen that Trump will continue this approach in the second half of the year, which will inevitably be a rare force for gold.
Remove and click here to add image captions and textThe first trading day of Super Week has passed, and the financial market may seem calm but in reality, there is a surge of undercurrents, and explosive market trends may occur at any time. Yesterday was gold7On the last trading day of the month, based on the final performance, it can be said that it ended very calmly7The market trend of the month, with gold prices finally stopping at1270In front of the US dollar, but compared to7At the beginning of the month, the gold price was still at1220Nearby, it can be said that7Gold completed a miraculous comeback in the month. And entering8After the month's market, the price of gold is still fluctuating at a high level. The next night, there was another resignation incident at the White House, and the White House Communications Director was dismissed, leading to a drop in the US dollar93First line innovation low, but gold price still hasn't been successfully broken through1270On the front line, the current market is mainly waiting for Friday's non-agricultural data results to provide guidance to the gold market
. Maintain a cautious attitude before the release of non-agricultural data this week. At the same time, we are also wary of changes in the market's risk aversion sentiment. After all, the current risk aversion sentiment in the market has shown strong performance in both the US housing sales and the Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index. However, after the data was released, the US dollar has turned to a sharp decline, while major non US currencies such as the euro and pound have taken advantage of the trend to rise. This week, the United States will release its highly anticipated non farm payroll report, and President Trump will begin a roadshow on tax reform. Multiple investment banks have pointed out that the bearish sentiment towards the US dollar is excessive and is expected to usher in a rebound opportunity. Bank of America and Merrill Lynch stated that the US dollar hit oversold levels for the first time in over a year. since2012This model has only appeared since5Subsequently, the trend often quickly reverses. On Monday, the financial markets faced a series of US data tests, with overall good performance, but the US dollar index subsequently declined.
The weakness of the US dollar has driven up the price of gold, not only against the euro, but also against most major currencies. The politics of the United States are chaotic, and its data is not encouraging. On Monday, the US dollar fell nearly against a basket of currencies13At a monthly low, gold denominated in US dollars appears cheap for holders of other currencies, which may indicate stronger demand. The slowdown in salary growth in the United States, coupled with sluggish inflation, makes it difficult for another interest rate hike to occur this year. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates twice this year.
The market hopes that President Trump's government will implement tax reforms and economic stimulus plans in the near future, which is seen as a positive factor for the US dollar. However, after the US Senate failed to overturn the Obama healthcare bill last Friday, this is seen as a political setback for President Trump, which also undermines his ability to smoothly introduce tax reforms and economic stimulus plans. In terms of geopolitics, after North Korea launched its second intercontinental ballistic missile last Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to the proposal of US President Donald Trump on Monday, and more actions need to be taken towards the north. The economy is on the verge of triggering a new round of explosive market trends at any time.


Analysis of spot gold market:
The recent political risks have provided great support for gold, and the bullish trend in gold is unstoppable. In just one month, it has rebounded nearly70The US dollar has gone through three weeks of consecutive positive trendsKLine; This week has ushered in8In the first week of the month, there will be a bombardment of the market with numerous US economic data led by non-agricultural data. The fluctuation of gold yesterday was not significant, but after the breakthrough at the end of last Friday, the gold price gave me further confidence to go long at the beginning of this week. It was confirmed that the price had successfully stabilized on Friday1260The upward trend in the later bands will continue, and in the front, we will1260As gold bottoms out1204The long short divide in the post rebound stage, since the price was able to break through this critical boundary point last week, there will inevitably be a continuation in both the overall trend and the band in the future; At present, what we need to focus on from above is the information from1280The breakthrough of resistance on the front line is only after the price stabilizes at this position that there is a chance to launch an impact towards the thousand three level.
The gold daily chart saw a strong bullish rally last Friday, with prices breaking through after breaking through and adjusting for potential gains. The bulls showed extremely strong momentum, and the daily price was almost entirely dependent on5The daily moving average has formed a good upward trend, and after breaking through the resistance position layer by layer, there is still enough room for upward gold prices. Within four hours, gold maintained a fluctuating upward trend. After each breakthrough, the price would experience a rebound and accumulate momentum, breaking through the previous high again. In terms of trend, gold prices still showed a strong upward momentum, and indicators also showed a bullish development. Therefore, in the short term, attention should be paid to this1271-1275Regional resistance level, followed by1280First line suppression position, lower level attention1265-1260Frontline support.


Suggestions for spot gold operations:
1First exploration above1275-1276Short selling, stop loss3US dollars, look at the target below1270-1267


2Below1263-1264Long, stop loss3US dollars, looking at the target1269-1272
Remove and click here to add image captions and text3The market is constantly changing, and the operating points will also change accordingly. Please scan the code below to contact me in real-time
goods in stockcrude oilAnalysis of crude oil market:       　  
Yesterday, oil prices benefited from news that the United States may sanction Venezuela, once again turning red,NYMEX9Monthly deliveryWTIcrude oilfuturesrise in price0.46USD or0.9%, to50.17dollar/Bucket, created a self5month24The highest closing price since the beginning of the day.7Accumulated monthly increase9%；ICE9Brent crude oil futures prices for monthly delivery have also risen0.13USD or0.3%, to52.65dollar/Barrel,7Accumulated monthly increase9.9%, set a record since last year12The largest monthly increase since the beginning of the month. Yesterday, oil prices first fell and then rose, reaching a level in early trading50.06The first tier market has entered a narrow range of bearish fluctuations, with the European market increasing its downward momentum and the US market offering the lowest price49.2Nearby, there has been a significant increase in the recovery of the entire white market decline. The highest intraday touch50.4Position market enters consolidation, final closing50.17On the front line, the daily line has ended with a long downward shadow and a positive line. From the daily chart, the opening of the Bollinger Bands expands outward,MA5Mean Square andMA10The moving average shows a good upward trend with a golden cross,KThe line intersects with the Bollinger upper rail line,MACDThe fast and slow lines form a golden cross and slightly open upwards, with a slight decrease in red kinetic energy as they move upwards,KDJThe third line is turning downwards to flatten and move to the right, causing a slight slowdown in the bullish crude oil market;4On the hourly chart, the opening of the Bollinger Bands rises upwards,MA5The moving average is turning downwards, and oil prices are experiencing a decline in European and American marketsKThe line has dropped toMA10Running below the moving average,MACDAfter a long period of adhesive operation, the fast and slow lines slightly open downwards, and green kinetic energy appears,KDJAt the initial intersection of the third line, the dead cross diverges downwards, and there are certain signs of a short-term decline in oil prices. After a five consecutive bullish rise in crude oil last week, the bullish trend slowed down at the beginning of the week, and there was a certain downward trend in the short term. But the overall market is still dominated by bulls, and short-term oil prices are still hindered50.4First line suppression, once effectively stabilized, further focus51Gateway and5month25High point52.4Zone suppression position. So, in terms of intraday operations, it is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset.

Suggestions for spot crude oil operation:



1Upward rebound50.6-50.7Short on the front line, stop loss0.3USD, target50-49.6


2Below49.90-49.80Long nearby, stop loss0.3US dollars, looking at the target50.4-50.8


3The market is constantly changing, and the operating points will also change accordingly. Please scan the code below to contact me in real-time
Personal opinion: Based on the analysis and judgment of the current information trend of the gold and crude oil market, Qing Jun believes that there are more positive than negative factors that are beneficial for investors to invest in. Seizing the entry point and doing a good job in risk control, the biggest market fluctuation this week will be the non-agricultural data to be released on Friday.
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writing/Xiong Qingjun: Work Wei   letter 13235572581   penguin3324975373