Translation: The Federal Reserve announces that the US dollar will be hit hard, and gold will welcome it with strength,EIACausing a sharp drop in oil prices

Summary:The Federal Reserve held its ground as scheduled, but announced that it would soon shrink its balance sheet and the probability of raising interest rates had rebounded. However, the US dollar continued to plummet, driving gold prices to quickly rebound and spot prices to risegoldMake a major breakthrough1260。EIAcrude oilBoth inventory and crude oil production have decreased, and oil prices hit a new high on Wednesday5Closing at a new high since the end of the month, but this timeEIAThe data has hidden implications。


Message surface


The international gold price continued to decline slightly on Wednesday, just before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with the lowest intraday drop in the US market reaching1243.41dollar/In ounces, the US dollar rebounded slightly from a multi month low.COMEX 8Monthly goldfuturesClosing down2.70USD, decline0.2%Report1249.40dollar/Ounces, marking the third consecutive trading day of decline;9Monthly silver prices decline8.3Cents, closing at per ounce16.459USD, with a decline of0.5%. butThe US dollar indexFOMCDiving after the resolution statement, refresh2016year6month23Since the low point of the day93.39, driving the rapid rebound of gold prices in electronic trading. International spot gold closed on Wednesday1260.70dollar/Ounces, up12.15USD, increase0.97%。


The Federal Reserve announced early Thursday morning7monthFOMCMeeting statement to maintain the federal funds rate at1%-1.25%The range remains unchanged and meets market expectations. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve acknowledges weak inflation, and on the other hand, suggests that it will soon begin to shrink its balance sheet. After the announcement of the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%The probability of the interval is8.2%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is45.1%Before the announcement of the resolution8.2%and42.9%. However, despite the probability of a rate hike rebounding, the US dollar has shown a "waterfall like decline". Spot gold took the opportunity to rebound, reaching a maximum of1263.39dollar/Ounces, breaking a six week high. Spot silver also rose1.5%to16.67dollar/Ounces, refresh6month30A new high has been reached recently.


The decline in US crude oil inventories and production has provided strong support for oil prices. At the same time, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled, the US dollar fell again, increasing the upward space for oil prices. Wednesday（7month26Japanese oil prices have climbed to new highs.


WTI 9Monthly crude oil futures up0.86USD, increase1.80%Report48.75dollar/Bucket5month30The closing price has reached a new high recently. Brent9Monthly crude oil futures up0.77USD, increase1.53%Report50.97dollar/Bucket, also created5Closing at a new high since the end of the month.


Yesterday's American Petroleum InstituteAPIPositive oil storage data, driving overnight US oil stations up48The US dollar barrier. according toAPIStatistics show that crude oil inventories plummeted last week1020Ten thousand barrels, or2016year9The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the month; Inventory reduction in Kuxin region256.8Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory increases19010000 barrels, reduced inventory of refined oil11.1Ten thousand barrels.


visibleAPIStatistics on crude oil inventories and the United StatesEIAThe official data is consistent, but the backlog of finished oil inventories is more pessimistic. However, the decline in crude oil inventories exceeded1000The Great Pass of Ten Thousand BarrelsWTIOn the oil price station6month1The highest in recent days48.66dollar/Bucket.


Today's focus is on financial events


14:00 Germany8monthGfkConsumer confidence index
18:00 britain7monthCBIRetail sales difference
20:30 From the United States to7month22Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week, United States6Monthly rate of durable goods orders
22:30 From the United States to7month21Day and WeekEIANatural gas inventory


Gold Market Analysis


Gold has been circling around yesterdayFederal Reserve raises interest ratesThe topic is that the volatile downward trend of the Asian stock market continued Tuesday's downward trend, and the continuation of the bearish trend was also expected; Before the opening of the European market, amidst numerous bullish news, gold began to switch between long and short positions. Against the backdrop of an exceptionally strong bearish trend, the bullish trend slowly emerged, step by step opening the path of bullish positions in the European and American markets. The path of soaring gold prices has begun, andFederal Reserve meetingsPreviously, the gradual fluctuation and upward trend of gold prices seemed to indicate the future trend of gold. After the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, gold began to rocket up and soar directly1263.7Near the area, it was under pressure and eventually1262.5Nearby closing, the daily chart ends with two consecutive bearish days.


Returning to the technical side, from a daily perspective, the opening of the Bollinger Bands is slightly upward,KThe line runs between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving average runs in adhesive mode,KDJThree lines glued downwards,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines starts to contract upwards, the red energy bar increases, and the bullish trend weakens; From the four hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving average runs in adhesive mode,KDJThree line golden cross upwards,MACDThe turn of the fast and slow lines is glued upwards, reducing the green energy column and weakening the bearish trend; From the hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges downwards,KThe line runs through the upper rail, and the turning point of the moving average runs upwards with adhesive,KDJThree line bonding downwards,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines diverges upwards, with an increase in the red energy column and a strong multi European trend; Overall, the current bullish trend is exceptionally strong, and it is recommended to focus on a pullback in the short term and make a long position in the long term.


Golden train of thought


1Callback1252-1255Nearby, stop loss1248, Objective1263
2、1268-1270Near empty, stop loss1273, Objective1255


Analysis of crude oil market


Crude oil yesterdayEIAPreviously, the market was relatively calm and focused on48.60-48.10This range fluctuates slightly untilEIAHere we are, as expected, with a bullish outlookEIANot providing too much upward support, I touched it during the upward rush48.87After rebounding on the first line, it fell again to48.07Nearby, crude oil began to digest the bullish news and maintained a volatile upward trend, ultimately leading to48.70Nearby, it closed with a small positive trend and officially established a three day bullish streak.


Returning to the technical side, from a daily perspective, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving average begins to bond,KDJThe three line golden cross diverges upwards,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines diverges upwards, the red energy column increases, and the bullish trend strengthens; From the four hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs closely under the upper rail of the Bollinger belt,KSJThree line bonding operation,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines tends to contract upwards, with a decrease in the red energy column and a weakening of the bullish trend; From the hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands contracts upwards,KThe line runs between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Belt,KSJThe three line opening contracts downwards,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines contracts downwards and then begins to diverge again. The green energy column shows a trend of increasing again, while the bearish trend strengthens; Overall, the current trend is mainly bullish on a large scale, while the bearish trend is strengthening on a small scale. In terms of operation, Shijia suggests that in the short term, it should start with range fluctuations and sell high with low slag, and wait and see in the long term. Follow Above48.9One hour online rail pressure, pay attention below48.4Hour line mid rail support


Crude oil concept


1Callback48.4Nearby, stop loss48.1, Objective49
2、48.9Near empty, stop loss49.3, Objective48.3


[The following suggestions are given for gold short orders]


1Gold1250Those who are short selling nearby should have set their sights for now10About a point, if the risk is still high, in the120Above, there's no need to worry too much. Pay attention to the hourly line collection situation in this round,1260The gains and losses of position. If you stand firm, go long and lock the order first. If you hit high and fall back, you can add short positions. If the risk lies in100For the following, Shijia suggests reducing positions first to stabilize when there is a decline, and only with funds can we continue to operate, otherwise we will have nothing when the positions are sold out.


2Gold and today's low point1244If you are short selling nearby, then your pursuit is meaningless. Even if you want to short, you can wait to fall below the daily trend line1240Do it again, chasing after empty spaces is a mistake that only beginners make. If there are short orders at or below this position, the likelihood of being resolved in the short term is not high. Even if there is a pullback in the gold market in the future, it will only reach1250Nearby. If we stand firm1260If you continue to attack, then there is no hope of taking empty orders. Shijia suggests cutting the meat or cutting it, as the opposite direction will never lead to the destination.


writing//Translated by Panshi Family.(Official WeChat):OL0080