7.18晚评：原油上方受阻还能涨吗？黄金原油晚间操作及中线布局

Message surface analysis


Monday(7month17day)，美元指数进一步下跌刷新10Month low point95.06，目前仍于低位附近徘徊，上周耶伦讲话鸽派，美国CPI及零售数据不佳，均打压美指，趋势仍疲弱;非美货币全线反攻，欧元兑美元逼近14个月高点，gold创两周新高1236.25dollar/ounce;美油小幅回落至46.26dollar/桶，减产策略已破产，OPEC只剩最后一招。有市场人士指出，疲弱美国数据关上了美元反弹的机会之窗。本周伊始，foreign exchange市场走势便陷入低迷，鉴于本周美国经济数据清淡，汇市的命运或将掌握在欧洲央行行长德拉基手中。此外，随着美联储不再是唯一收紧货币政策的主要央行，德拉基Diona613或将取代耶伦成为汇市新的“掌门人”。综合看，黄金目前消息面利多较为明显，crude oil短期利空。对于中线布局神指建议可以围绕这个思路去操作。


Analysis of the US crude oil market


Yesterday, crude oil showed an overall downward trend of volatility, and the author has repeatedly pointed out in the analysis that it is not a problem to be bullish in the medium and long term, but there is no problem to short in the short term. The final closing on Monday was46At the US dollar level, from a daily perspective, the Bollinger Bands are operating on the opening,KThere is a trend of running close to the middle rail above the Bollinger Bands, and there is a bonding trend between the moving averages,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines shows a secondary divergence trend, with a decrease in the red energy bar and a weakening of the bullish trend; From the four hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs near the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving averages begin to bond,STOIt is located in the overbought area, crossing and leveling,MACD快慢线开口向向下运行，红色能量柱减少，空头趋势加强。综合来看，今日亚欧盘小幅震荡下行，目前虽然有所反弹，但是上方阻力比较强劲，且空头趋势明显占优，晚间操作上神指建议短期以高空为主，低多为辅，重点上方关注47One line of resistance, pay attention below45.90Frontline support.

Suggestions for US crude oil operations:


　　1Rebound46.80First line empty advance, stop loss0.3, Objective46.20


　　2Falling back45.90Multiple orders on the front line, stop loss0.3, Objective46.40


　　美黄金行情分析：


Yesterday morning, the opening of gold prices continued the upward trend of last Friday, and when the gold price reached1231The first-line momentum has been completely released, and the subsequent gold price will remain stable1228-1235区间波动，并没有给到我们理想的进场点位，短线金价依旧处于高位震荡。目前多头能量柱缩量，4hourKLine andMACD能量柱形成顶背离形态，4小时上看黄金短线上有弱势回踩需求；同样的看到短周期1小时图上面，高点上移趋势线来看，此趋势线经过前期下破并回踩确认及短线多次反弹确认有效之后，目前此趋势线于1240一线形成反弹阻力位，而且目前小时图上KLine andMACD指标形成非常明显的底背离看跌形态，那么也更加印证了前面看好的短线上金价的回踩需求。短周期的弱势行情笔者提醒大家一定要注意关键位置的得失情况，晚间操作上建议以低多为主，重点关注上方1240Line resistance, below1228Support.


　　美黄金操作建议：


　　1Suggest using1236-1234Short range, stop loss4USD, target1230-1228Nearby;


　　2Suggest a fallback1228-1229Long range, stop loss4USD, target1235-1237Nearby;


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