Crossing the Sea 2017year 7month7day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

7

month

7

day

Important economic data released today:
20：30Canada6Monthly job changes‧Forecast increase1.00Ten thousand‧Previous value increase5.45Ten thousand
20：30Canada6Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast6.6%‧Previous value6.6%
20：30Canada6Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.8%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase17.9ten thousand people‧Previous value increase13.8ten thousand people
20：30U.S.A6Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.2ten thousand people‧Previous value increase14.7ten thousand people
20：30U.S.A6Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast increase0.5ten thousand people‧Previous value decrease0.1ten thousand people
20：30U.S.A6月政府部门就业岗位‧Previous value decrease0.9ten thousand people
20：30U.S.A6Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.3%‧Previous value4.3%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly and weekly average working hours‧forecast34.4‧Previous value34.4
20：30U.S.A6Monthly labor force employment participation rate‧Previous value62.7%
22：00Canada6monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value62.6
22：00Canada6monthIvey经季节调整采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value53.8
  



Focus this week:
7month7day(Friday)
U.S.A6Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A6Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A6Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A6月政府部门就业岗位
U.S.A6Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A6Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A6Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A6Monthly labor force employment participation rate

7month10day(Monday)
U.S.A6Monthly employment trend index

7month11day(Tuesday)
U.S.A5Monthly Consumer Credit
United States6monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A5monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A5月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A5月批发销售月率修订

7month13day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A6Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A6Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A6Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and trade

7month14day(Friday)
U.S.A6Monthly federal budget
U.S.A6monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A6Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A6Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A6Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A6Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A5Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A7Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A7月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A7月密歇根大学预期指数初值



News of the Week
U.S.A5Monthly factory orders decrease0.8%
U.S.A5月耐用品订单修正后为较前月下降0.8%
U.S.A5月扣除运输的工厂订单为较前月下降0.3%
U.S.A5月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单修正后较前月增加0.2%
U.S.A5月扣除运输的耐久财订单修正后为较前月增长0.3%
U.S.A5月扣除国防的耐久财订单修正后为较前月下降0.3%


7month6day
LondongoldMorning order price:1224.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1224.90


Today's Introduction

投资者静候美国非农就业报告

美元本周稍早上扬，美元指数周一录得约四个月来最大单日升幅，因美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布美国6月制造业指数强于预期，从而带动美国10年期公债收益率触及5month16日以来最高水平；与此同时，投资人越发预期欧洲多个央行将在今年稍晚开始缩减货币刺激。但美联储周三发布6month13-14日政策会议的记录之后，美元涨势暂停。会议记录显示，决策者对通胀前景及其如何影响未来升息步幅的分歧加重，这让部分美元多头感到失望。而周四发布的ADP民间就业等美国经济数据表现疲弱，对美元而言更是雪上加霜。市场将瞩目今晚公布的美国非农就业报告。路透调查的经济学家预计，6月料新增非农就业岗位17.9Ten thousand.5月时新增了13.8Ten thousand.

展望下周，美国非农就业报告将主导汇市短线走势，但主要央行政策动向仍将是投资者主要关注点。美联储主席耶伦在国会两院的半年度货币政策证词陈述，以及美联储多位官员的讲话，将为美联储未来政策路径提供更多线索。本周末的G20峰会及朝鲜半岛局势发展也在投资者重点关注之列。




XAU London Gold - 金价陷于争持，候待非农数据

World Gold Council(WGC)表示，印度上调黄金销售税，短期内可能压抑消费者对黄金的需求。印度是全球第二大黄金消费国。

金价周五下滑，有机会将录得两个月最大周线跌幅，投资者寻求从美元走强和美国公债收益率走高中获得更高收益，市场在等待今晚将公布的美国非农就业数据。金价再次跌见至1220美元下方，本周至今累计跌1.7%Material will create a new record5month5日当周以来最大单周跌幅。

图表走势所见，金价自周初下挫后，则维持着区间整理，向上受制1230关口，下方亦暂见最低只触及1217水平，逼近于5month9Daily low1213.80水平，这亦将为目前关注的下方支持，若然后市进一步跌破此位置，形态上有机会以双顶破颈线继续滑落，延伸目标看至1200and1175Horizontal. Looking back at the resistance above1230，附近亦见有200The balance moving average is located at1231.50美元，较大阻力预估为1238and1254USD.


        
London Gold7month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1210- 1227
Resistance level:1238– 1254
Support bit:1200– 1175


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
6month12Day - 867.00ton
6month13Day - 867.00ton
6month14Day - 854.87ton
6month15Day - 853.68ton
6month16Day - 853.68ton
6month19Day - 853.68ton
6month20Day - 853.68ton
6month21Day - 853.68ton
6month22Day - 853.98ton
6month23Day - 851.02ton
6month26Day - 853.68ton
6month27Day - 853.68ton
6month28Day - 853.68ton
6month29Day - 853.68ton
6month30Day - 852.50ton
7month3Day - 846.29ton
7month4Day - 846.29ton
7month5Day - 840.67ton
7month6Day - 840.67ton

6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - 银价呈技术超卖

银价周五早盘短暂崩跌至14.86美元，触及15个月低点；但其后又迅速扳回大部份跌幅，返回至16美元下方不远处。相对强弱指标及随机指数有着初步回稳迹象，或见银价下跌空间将为有限；较近支持料为15.70and15美元关口，下一级看至14.50美元。向上首要阻力先指向16.30and50Balance moving average16.75美元，较大阻力预估为17.30USD.




London Silver7month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.70– 16.30
Resistance level:16.90– 17.30
Support bit:15.00– 14.50

                                                                        

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
6month12Day - 10562.91ton
6month13Day - 10562.91ton
6month14Day - 10562.91ton
6month15Day - 10457.00ton
6month16Day - 10457.00ton
6month19Day - 10457.00ton
6month20Day - 10504.07ton
6month21Day - 10504.07ton
6month22Day - 10571.73ton
6month23Day - 10571.73ton
6month26Day - 10571.73ton
6month27Day - 10571.73ton
6month29Day - 10551.14ton
6month30Day - 10562.90ton
7month3Day - 10562.90ton
7month4Day - 10562.90ton
7month5Day - 10558.43ton
7month6Day - 10629.03ton


EUR euro - 会议纪录为调整政策埋下伏笔

投资者重新评估固定收益资产前景，因愈发认为超低息资金时代正在逐步走向终结。欧洲央行执委科尔在接受法国世界报和意大利新闻报联合采访时表示，欧洲央行应该慎重、灵活、清楚明确地调整其政策，以避免导致市场突然调整。另外，周四公布的欧洲央行6月会议记录显示，央行对进一步暗示市场，为即将开始撤走货币刺激举措作准备持开放态度。这更加巩固市场看法，认为全球主要央行正在考虑开始收回超宽松立场。

图表所见，欧元兑美元又再度逼近上周高位，预计1.1450仍然会是上冲的一大关卡，倘若今趟可突破，料欧元将可望展开新一轮升势，延伸目标可探至1.15关口，下一级参考去年5Monthly high1.1614。较近支持先回看1.13and1.11水平。若果以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1.1025and1.0895。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1450* –1.1500 –1.1614
support1.0930 - 1.0820 - 1.0770 –1.0700


Focus:
7month7day(five): Germany5Monthly industrial production rate‧France5Monthly budget balance‧流动帐‧工业生产月率‧trade balance‧Import‧Export‧Italy5Monthly retail sales
7month10day(one): Germany5Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧eurozone7monthSentixInvestor confidence index
7month11day(two): Italy5Monthly industrial production
7month12day(three): Eurozone5Monthly industrial production
7month13day(four): Germany6monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧France6monthHICPFinal value
7month14day(five): Italy6monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧Italy5Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone5Monthly trade balance

Related news
eurozone6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.4
eurozone6Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.3
Germany6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.0
Germany6Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.4
France6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.9
France6Monthly comprehensivePMIThe final value is56.6
Germany5月工业订单较前月增加1.0%
France5The monthly trade deficit narrowed to49100 million euros
Published by the French National Bureau of Statistics5Monthly industrial production growth1.9%
Germany5Monthly industrial production has increased compared to the previous month1.2%



JPY yen - 央行出手捍卫底线协助公债反弹

日本央行周五力图将公债收益率保持在其政策目标附近，央行市场操作协助公债收益率自数月高点回落。在周五的特殊市场操作中，日本央行按0.110%的收益率无限量购买10年期公债，运用了其最强大的武器来控制市场。除此之外，央行还将对五年至10年期公债的常规标购规模从之前的4,500亿日圆提高至5,000亿日圆，展现力量坚守让10年期公债收益率保持在零附近的承诺。自从去年9月发布控制收益率曲线政策以来，日本央行第三次以固定收益率水平进行特别购债操作，藉以遏止日债收益率上升。在日本央行的行动后，美元兑日圆续涨，一度触及日高113.83，这也是5month12日以来最高水平。美元兑日圆本周以来上涨1.3%。

美元兑日圆走势，在近月持续走涨的情况下，当前有望在探5月份的高位，其时连续三日受制于114.35，若后市可一举冲破此区，料见美元兑日圆可延续强势，甚至以型态所见，将视作双底，有机会以550点的幅度再续上扬，亦即中期目标可望在119.80附近；至于较近目标可先留意115.50。下方支持则会关注9Balance moving average112.70and100Balance moving average111.70，关键指向110Gateway.

        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance114.35** –115.50
support112.70 –111.70 –110.00
                                                                        

Focus:
7month10day(one): Japan6月银行贷款年率‧服务业景气判断指数‧Japan5月流动帐平衡‧机械订单
7month12day(three): Japan6Monthly Commercial Price Index
7month13day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
7month14day(five): Japan5Monthly industrial production revision‧产能利用率指数月率修订


Related news
Japan6Monthly service industryPMIAscend to53.3, for2015year8The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan6Monthly comprehensivePMIfall to52.9


GBP pound - 英镑探试顶部

英镑兑美元本周于1.29区间争持整理，在周初未能突破1.3050阻力之际出现回挫，但在1.29水平附近暂获支撑，亦可看为在50Balance moving average1.2870具有一定支撑力度。短线仍处待变，先会关注上方的1.3050Horizontal, in5月中旬历经多日仍是未有突破，而上周的再度到访亦是一再败阵，需观察后市若有机会再往上探，若果仍然无法破位，料会出现较大规模的调整压力。下方较大支持参考1.2690and200Balance moving average1.2545，上月英镑曾下探此指标，但尚可勉力守稳。反之，若然终可成功突破，料会巩固其上行格局，甚至以旗形的形态再往上冲高。黄金比率计算，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655。




Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3050* - 1.3230 –1.3500
support1.2870 - 1.2690 –1.2545
                                                                        

Focus:
7month7day(five): UK6monthHalifaxHouse Price Index‧britain5月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡
7month11day(two): UK6monthBRC同店零售销售年率
7month12day(three): UK6Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧by5月三个月按ILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率
7month13day(four): UK6monthRICSPrice difference



CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞双顶下跌

瑞士联邦经济总局(SECO)Announced on Friday, Switzerland6月未经季节调整失业率降为3%Last month3.1%。6The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.2%，持平前月。

美元兑瑞郎方面，技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其近两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,61.8%的调整幅度为0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150水平。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9770，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9770 - 0.9850  0.9920
support0.9600 - 0.9560 –0.9251
                                                                        

Related news
Switzerland6monthCPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%Increase compared to the same period last year0.2%
Switzerland6月经调整的失业率为3.2%
Switzerland6月未经调整的失业率为3.0%

Focus:
7month13day(four)Switzerland6Monthly Producer/Import prices



AUD AUD - 央行维持鸽派立场，澳元冲顶失败

澳元兑美元交投在两周低点附近，美国就业报告将在今日稍晚公布。路透调查分析师预测，美国6Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities17.9Ten thousand,5月则增加13.8万个。澳元周线料将录得1.4%的跌幅，为4月初以来的最差表现。澳洲央行在周二的政策会议上，抵住压力未将利率立场转为鹰派，对澳元构成拖累。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD6month30日触及高位0.7712，但一如过去一年的走势，在0.77区间仍是遇到强大阻力。2016year8month11日澳元触高于0.7760，11month8Daily high0.7778，今年2month23日见高位于0.7741，3month21日则是0.7750；澳元多番上闯0.77区间亦是无功而还，无巧不成话，此次又再度于0.77区间功败垂成，大有机会加剧澳元短期的回挫压力。同时，图表亦可见到相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域回落，示意着汇价延续走低的倾向，初步下探目标料为250Balance moving average0.7530，另一重要支持为上升趋向线0.7410，5month9Daily low0.7329则为关键参考。上方阻力将会继续留意0.77and0.7760Horizontal, with high resistance material0.7840。策略上建议可在0.77水平附近沽出澳元兑美元，上破0.7760止损，获利目标放于0.7550。

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7640* –0.7680 –0.7750
support0.7480 - 0.7330 - 0.7160
                                                                        

Related news
The Bank of Australia maintains interest rates at1.50%的纪录低位不变
Australia5Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%
Australia5月经季调商品/Service trade balance is a surplus24.71AUD 100 million
Australia5月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增长9%Import growth compared to the previous month1%


Focus:
7month11day(two): Australia6monthNABBusiness Status Index‧NABBusiness confidence index‧Australia5月房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing
7month12day(three): Australia7月消费者信心指数月率



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽元维持持稳走势

技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数均告上扬，预估纽元仍会倾向继续探高。纽元兑美元的关键支撑料为0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。另一方面，上方阻力则瞩目于上周高位0.7320，若可破位走高，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7320 - 0.7380 - 0.7500
support0.6800 –0.6690 –0.6500
                                                                

Related news
New Zealand6月住宅价格指数同比上升8.1%, for2015year3月以来最小升幅


Focus:
7month11day(two): New Zealand6月电子卡零售销售
7month13day(four): New Zealand6Monthly Food Price Index Monthly Rate
7month14day(five): New Zealand6Monthly manufacturing industryPMI



CAD Cad - 央行总裁讲话提振升息预期

加拿大央行总裁波洛兹表示，加国通胀到2018年上半年应该会稳居上行趋势，政策正常化进程必须在物价增长触及目标位之前就启动。他的讲话令市场预期加拿大央行7month12日会议升息机率超过50%，这是一个重大转变，不到两周之前还几乎没人押注加拿大央行会收紧政策。受此影响，美元兑加元周二一度下滑至10Month low1.2912。

由于汇价已跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price, 61.8%The level of callback will be seen as1.2970；此外，2月汇价曾低见至1.2967，目前此区失守，则有望形成双顶型态，并延伸弱势发展，下一级目标将看至1.28And last year5Monthly low1.2458。另一方面，上方阻力则回看1.3050and200Balance moving average position1.3340For materials with high resistance1.35Horizontal.

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3330 –1.3500 - 1.3550
support1.3060 - 1.2970 –1.2800
                                                                        

Focus:   
7month7day(five): Canada6Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧IveyPMI
7month11day(two): Canada6Monthly housing construction annual rate
7month12day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision
7month13day(four): Canada5Monthly New Housing Price Index

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)