Crossing the Sea 2017year 7month6day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

7

month

6

day

Focus this week:
7month6day(Thursday)
U.S.A6monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
U.S.A6monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A5Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A5Revised monthly commodity trade balance
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A6monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A6monthISMNon manufacturing index

7month7day(Friday)
U.S.A6Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A6Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A6Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A6月政府部门就业岗位
U.S.A6Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A6Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A6Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A6Monthly labor force employment participation rate


News of the Week
U.S.A5Monthly factory orders decrease0.8%
U.S.A5月耐用品订单修正后为较前月下降0.8%
U.S.A5月扣除运输的工厂订单为较前月下降0.3%
U.S.A5月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单修正后较前月增加0.2%
U.S.A5月扣除运输的耐久财订单修正后为较前月增长0.3%
U.S.A5月扣除国防的耐久财订单修正后为较前月下降0.3%


Important economic data released today:   
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value417.4
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,396.2
19：30U.S.A6monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value51,692individual
20：15U.S.A6monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase18.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase25.3Ten thousand
20：30U.S.A5Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast462A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value476A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30U.S.A5Revised monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value659.0A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(7month1Day and Week)‧forecast24.3ten thousand people‧Previous value24.4ten thousand people
20：30Four week average in the United States(7month1Day and Week)‧Previous value24.225ten thousand people
20：30Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(6month24Day and Week)‧forecast193.9ten thousand people‧Previous value194.8ten thousand people
20：30Canada5Monthly building permit rate‧forecast+2.6%‧Previous value-0.2%
20：30Canada5Monthly trade balance‧forecast5.3A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value3.7A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30Canada5Monthly export‧Previous value476.9Billion
20：30Canada5Monthly imports‧Previous value480.6Billion
21：45U.S.A6monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.0
21：45U.S.A6monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.0
22：00U.S.A6Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast56.5‧Previous value56.9
22：00U.S.A6Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)商业活动分项指数‧forecast60.8‧Previous value60.7
22：00U.S.A6Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value57.8
22：00U.S.A6Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value57.7
22：00U.S.A6Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value49.2
   

Today's Introduction

会议记录：美联储决策者对通胀前景及其对升息步幅的影响分歧加重

本周市场一度受到朝鲜半岛紧张局势的冲击，此前北韩发射了一枚导弹到日本水域，美国官员称这枚导弹为洲际弹道导弹。美国周三警告称，如果为了阻止朝鲜核导弹计划而必须使用武力，将会这么做。但美国同时表示，更希望针对朝鲜不顾外界劝阻而发射导弹的行为采取全球性外交行动。

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Published6month13-14日政策会议记录显示，决策者对通胀前景，及其可能对未来升息步幅造成何种影响的分歧加重。会议记录显示，几位联储官员希望在8月底前就宣布，开始缩减美联储所持大量公债和抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)组合，但其他决策者则希望等到今年晚些时候。委员会对近期升息后为何金融市场状况并未收紧提出了疑问，几位委员还表示股价偏高。美联储会议记录发布后，美元兑一篮子主要货币变动不大。



7month5day
LondongoldMorning order price:1221.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1220.30


XAU London Gold - 金价陷于争持，候待非农数据


金价周四盘初持稳，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)上日公布会议记录显示，其内部对通胀可能如何影响升息速度的看法存在分歧。美联储会议记录公布后，美元指数周三几无变动。另外，美国周三警告称，如果为了阻止北韩核导弹计划而必须使用武力，将会这么做。但美国同时表示，更希望针对北韩不顾外界劝阻而发射导弹的行为采取全球性外交行动。

图表走势所见，由于金价跌破200Balance moving average position1233水平，后市应倾向继续探低，下一级将关注今年5月所及低位1213水平，若然后市进一步跌破此位置，形态上有机会以双顶破颈线继续滑落，延伸目标看至1207and1200关口，中期目标则料为1176Horizontal. Looking back at the resistance above200Balance moving average1233，较大阻力预估为1237and1249。


  
        
London Gold7month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1224 - 1237
Resistance level:1249–1255 - 1267
Support bit:1212–1201 - 1193

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
6month12Day - 867.00ton
6month13Day - 867.00ton
6month14Day - 854.87ton
6month15Day - 853.68ton
6month16Day - 853.68ton
6month19Day - 853.68ton
6month20Day - 853.68ton
6month21Day - 853.68ton
6month22Day - 853.98ton
6month23Day - 851.02ton
6month26Day - 853.68ton
6month27Day - 853.68ton
6month28Day - 853.68ton
6month29Day - 853.68ton
6month30Day - 852.50ton
7month3Day - 846.29ton
7month4Day - 846.29ton
7month5Day - 840.67ton

6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton




XAG London Silver - 银价低位盘整

伦敦白银方面，银价于六月大幅滑落，将原先于五月的反弹幅度全数吐回，七月初更挫跌至16美元关口，倘若明确下破，延伸下方支持预估在15.60and15.20美元。向上首要阻力先指向16.30and50Balance moving average16.80美元，延伸上涨目标将看至17.32and6Monthly high17.75USD.      


London Silver7month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.80 –16.30
Resistance level:16.50–16.90
Support bit:15.60–15.20


iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
6month12Day - 10562.91ton
6month13Day - 10562.91ton
6month14Day - 10562.91ton
6month15Day - 10457.00ton
6month16Day - 10457.00ton
6month19Day - 10457.00ton
6month20Day - 10504.07ton
6month21Day - 10504.07ton
6month22Day - 10571.73ton
6month23Day - 10571.73ton
6month26Day - 10571.73ton
6month27Day - 10571.73ton
6month29Day - 10551.14ton
6month30Day - 10562.90ton
7month3Day - 10562.90ton
7month4Day - 10562.90ton
7month5Day - 10558.43ton



EUR euro - 欧元窄幅盘整

美联储周三发布的6month13-14日政策会议记录显示，决策者对通胀前景，及其可能对未来升息步幅造成何种影响的分歧加重。美联储会议记录发布后，美元兑一篮子主要货币变动不大。会议记录显示，几位联储官员希望在8月底前就宣布，开始缩减美联储所持大量公债和抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)组合，但其他决策者则希望等到今年晚些时候。美联储在6月会议上再度加息。市场人士密切关注将于周五公布的美国6月非农就业报告，以期从中寻找美联储政策走向的线索。

图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数于超买区域均呈现初步回落迹象，需防范在一轮的高歌猛涨后，迎来调整理格局，较近支持先回看1.13and1.11水平。若果以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1.1025and1.0895。至于向上阻力则续会留意1.1450and1.15关口，下一级参考去年5Monthly high1.1614。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1430 –1.1500
support1.0930 - 1.0820 - 1.0770 –1.0700


Focus:
7month6day(four): Germany5Monthly industrial order rate
7month7day(five): Germany5Monthly industrial production rate‧France5Monthly budget balance‧流动帐‧工业生产月率‧trade balance‧Import‧Export‧Italy5Monthly retail sales



Related news
eurozone6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.4
eurozone6Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.3
Germany6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.0
Germany6Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.4
France6Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.9
France6Monthly comprehensivePMIThe final value is56.6
Germany5月工业订单较前月增加1.0%



JPY yen - 美元涨势稍缓

根据美联储周三公布的6month13-14日会议记录，决策者对通胀前景，及其可能对未来升息步幅造成何种影响的分歧加大。美联储最新会议记录表明，耶伦正为年底调整资产负债表做准备，市场预计现阶段不会大幅度加息。美元没见有太变化。在美国就业数据公布之前，市场情绪保持谨慎，这些数据包括ADP就业数据、美国供应管理协会(ISM)Non manufacturingPMI以及初请失业金报告；周五亦将公布非农就业数据。投资人也将关注旧金山联邦储备银行总裁威廉姆斯和美联储理事鲍威尔讲话，因可能对美债收益率产生影响。

美元兑日圆走势，技术图表所见，较近支持先参考25Balance moving average111.10，关键则在位于109.50of250天平均线，六月中旬已见汇价守稳250天线，且于四月份汇价亦曾一度触碰，但未有明确跌破此指标下，美元之后大举反扑，冲上114日圆上方。MACD指针已上破讯号线，中短期而言，仍会预计有延续走高的倾向。原先较近阻力预估在112水平，不远处亦见有位于111.85of100天平均线，在上周破位后，料短线仍可延续升势；上向目标则参考五月份未能突破的114.40To the extent that115关口，进一步则看至115.60Horizontal.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.00 - 114.40 –115.00
support110.80 - 109.20


Focus:
7month6day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
7month7day(five): Japan6monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan5Monthly overtime pay


Related news
Japan6Monthly service industryPMIAscend to53.3, for2015year8The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan6Monthly comprehensivePMIfall to52.9


GBP pound - 英镑探试顶部

英镑周三稳步接近一周低位，因最新公布的英国服务业数据加入了近期一系列表现疲弱的数据行列，这可能阻碍英国央行进行10年来首次升息。包括总裁卡尼在内数字英国央行决策者近期发言，支持在短期内升息。英国央行曾在去年公投退欧后不久降息。这些鹰派讲话帮助英镑逆转6month8日大选出现悬峙议会以来累积下跌2%的跌势。不过，在英国与欧盟展开退欧磋商之际，英国的经济数据可能支持，尽管通胀远超英央行设定的2%目标，但升息时机仍不成熟的观点。周三公布的数据显示，6月英国服务业增长放缓至四个月低位，企业信心也降至近一年最低。数据公布后，英镑兑美元一度下跌，至一周低位1.2894美元，后小幅反弹。

英镑兑美元走势，在近日持续探高的形势下，当前瞩目位置见于1.3050水平，在上周历经多日仍是难越雷池，因此，倘若此趟终可成功突破，料会巩固其上行格局，甚至以旗形的形态再往上冲高。黄金比率计算，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Meanwhile,MACD指针已告上破讯号线，示意着英镑更倾向维持走高。至于下方支持先会参考50Balance moving average1.2860To the next level1.2690水平，较瞩目的支持则估计为200Balance moving average1.2545，上周英镑曾下探此指标，但未有跌破。建议可待回位至1.29水平下方再行买入英镑兑美元，以1.2830作止损点，短期获利目标设于1.3030Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3050* - 1.3230 –1.3500
support1.2690 –1.2625 –1.2500 - 1.2360

                                                

Focus:
7month5day(three): UK6monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
7month7day(five): UK6monthHalifaxHouse Price Index‧britain5月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡




CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞双顶下跌


The Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that Switzerland6Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Decline compared to the previous month0.1%Increase compared to the same period last year0.2%。

美元兑瑞郎方面，技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其近两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,61.8%的调整幅度为0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150水平。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9770，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9770 - 0.9850  0.9920
support0.9600 - 0.9560 –0.9251

                                                                        
Related news
Switzerland6monthCPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%Increase compared to the same period last year0.2%

Focus:
7month7day(five)Switzerland6Monthly unemployment rate








AUD AUD - 央行维持鸽派立场，澳元冲顶失败

澳元可能录得4月初以来的最大周线跌幅。跌幅主要来自周二，当时多头因澳洲央行坚持中性利率立场而抛售。周四数据显示，澳洲5月贸易顺差大幅回升，出口料将促进第二季经济成长。澳洲5月贸易顺差升至24.7亿澳元，高于4After monthly repairs9,000万澳元，而且是市场预估值11亿澳元的逾两倍。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD6month30日触及高位0.7712，但一如过去一年的走势，在0.77区间仍是遇到强大阻力。2016year8month11日澳元触高于0.7760，11month8Daily high0.7778，今年2month23日见高位于0.7741，3month21日则是0.7750；澳元多番上闯0.77区间亦是无功而还，无巧不成话，此次又再度于0.77区间功败垂成，大有机会加剧澳元短期的回挫压力。同时，图表亦可见到相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域回落，示意着汇价延续走低的倾向，初步下探目标料为250Balance moving average0.7530，另一重要支持为上升趋向线0.7410，5month9Daily low0.7329则为关键参考。上方阻力将会继续留意0.77and0.7760Horizontal, with high resistance material0.7840。策略上建议可在0.77水平附近沽出澳元兑美元，上破0.7760止损，获利目标放于0.7550。


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7640* –0.7680 –0.7750
support0.7480 - 0.7330 - 0.7160


Related news
The Bank of Australia maintains interest rates at1.50%的纪录低位不变
Australia5Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%
Australia5月经季调商品/Service trade balance is a surplus24.71AUD 100 million
Australia5月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增长9%Import growth compared to the previous month1%


Focus:
7month7day(five): Australia6monthAIG建筑业指数



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽元维持持稳走势

技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数均告上扬，预估纽元仍会倾向继续探高。纽元兑美元的关键支撑料为0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。另一方面，上方阻力则瞩目于上周高位0.7320，若可破位走高，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7320 - 0.7380 - 0.7500
support0.6800 –0.6690 –0.6500


Related news
New Zealand6月住宅价格指数同比上升8.1%, for2015year3月以来最小升幅




CAD Cad - 央行维持鹰派语调

加元隔夜受油价拖累跌落小幅回调；美元兑加元周二曾触及1.2910, for2016year9月以来最低水平，加拿大央行总裁波洛兹的言论让市场更有理由认为央行最快将在下周升息。

由于汇价已跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price, 61.8%The level of callback will be seen as1.2970；此外，2月汇价曾低见至1.2967，目前此区失守，则有望形成双顶型态，并延伸弱势发展，下一级目标将看至1.28And last year5Monthly low1.2458。另一方面，上方阻力则回看1.3050and200Balance moving average position1.3340For materials with high resistance1.35Horizontal.

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3330 –1.3500 - 1.3550
support1.3060 - 1.2970 –1.2800

        

Focus:   
7month6day(four): Canada5Monthly building permit rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import
7month7day(five): Canada6Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)