Crossing the Sea2017year6month15day

Crossing the Sea2017year6month15day

Focus this week:
6month15day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A6New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A5Monthly import price rate
U.S.A5月出口物价月率
U.S.A6Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A5Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A5Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A5Monthly capacity utilization rate
United States6monthNAHBHousing market index

6month16day(Friday)
U.S.A4月整体资本净流动
U.S.A4月外国购买美国公债
U.S.A5Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A5Monthly housing construction starts
U.S.A6Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index

Important economic data released today:
19：00 britain6Monthly central bank interest rate decision‧forecast0.25%‧Previous value0.25%
19：00 britain6月量化宽松规模‧forecast4,350Billion‧Previous value4,350Billion
19：00 britain6月货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)‧forecast1-7-0‧Previous value1-7-0
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(6month10Day and Week)‧forecast24.2ten thousand people‧Previous value24.5ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(6month10Day and Week)‧Previous value24.200ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(6month3Day and Week)‧forecast192.3ten thousand people‧Previous value191.7ten thousand people
20：30 Canada4Monthly manufacturing sales rate‧forecast+0.7%‧Previous value+1.0%
20：30 U.S.A6New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month‧Predict positive4.0‧Negative front value1.0
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly import price rate‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value+0.5%
20：30 U.S.A5月出口物价月率‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A6Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index‧Predict positive24.0‧Front value positive38.8
21：15 U.S.A5Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+1.0%
21：15 U.S.A5Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+1.0%
21：15 U.S.A5Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast76.7%‧Previous value76.7%
22：00 United States6Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast70‧Previous value70

6month16day (Friday)
04：00 U.S.A4月整体资本净流动‧Net outflow of previous value7Billion
04：00 U.S.A4月外国购买美国公债‧前值净买入244Billion

News of the Week
U.S.A5The monthly budget deficit is880亿美元，财年迄今赤字为4,330USD100mn
U.S.A5Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIDecreased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A5Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.1%
U.S.A5Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.1%
U.S.A5Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIUp from the previous month0.3%
U.S.A5Monthly final demandPPICompared to the previous month, it remained stable and increased compared to the same period last year2.4%
U.S.A4月企业库存较上月下跌0.2%Last year10月来最大降幅
U.S.A5月扣除汽车的零售销售较前月减少0.3%
U.S.A5月零售销售较前月减少0.3%
U.S.A5Monthly CoreCPIIncrease over the same period of last year1.7%
U.S.A5monthCPIIncrease over the same period of last year1.9%
U.S.A5月民间部门每周平均实质所得上升0.3%
U.S.A5Monthly CoreCPIUp from the previous month0.1%
U.S.A5Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Decreased compared to the previous month0.1%

美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25Basis points, to1.00-1.25%
美联储宣布削减资产负债表计划细节
香港金管局上调贴现窗基本利率25Bps to1.50%

6month14day
LondongoldMorning order price:1268.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1275.50

XAU London Gold ─联储决议支撑美元

图表所见，金价于上周中受制于1296水平，而周三更出现较显著回吐，因此这区将为当前一重要阻力参考，至于1300关口更属关键。即市较近阻力会先看1265and1288美元。另一方面，较近支持会看至50Balance moving average1260USD, next level material is1248and1241美元，进一步看至1225。

      
London Gold2017year6month15day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1256- 1265
Resistance level:1273– 1288 - 1306
Support bit:1248– 1241 - 1225


6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton
  
XAG London Silver ─ 银价低位盘整

伦敦白银方面，上升趋向线目前在17.30美元，需防范若明确跌破此区，将引发较大下调压力，延伸支撑看至16.30and15.80美元。另一方面，向上阻力将参考17.20美元，较大阻力料为250Balance moving average17.90USD.
      
London Silver2017 year6month15day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.20
Resistance level:17.60 – 18.10
Support bit:16.30 – 15.80

EUR euro ─联储声明暗示将继续收紧政策，美元上扬

图表走势所见，需留意欧元此前曾多番受制于1.1260水平，而相对强弱指标及随机指数已见自超买区域回落，因此欧元若在短期内仍然未能明确破位，料将呈现回挫风险。以自四月起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1.1010and1.0925Expand to61.8%Then it is1.0840. In addition,4month24日欧元跳空高开，跟4month20Daily high1.0777形成裂口，此位置则视为另一重要支撑。至于欧元若可再作上破，进一步阻力可参考1.13and1.1430Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1260** -1.1300 – 1.1430
support 1.1000 - 1.0820 - 1.0770

Focus:
6month15day(four): Italy5monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone4Monthly trade balance
6month16day(five): Germany5Monthly wholesale price index‧Italy4Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone5monthHICPFinal value‧扣除食品和能源HICPFinal value


JPY yen ─Bank of Japan6月会议料维持政策不变

美元兑日圆走势，技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数暂见自超卖区域出现初步回升迹象，同时见美元兑日圆在上周尚未有跌破250天平均线，此指针具有一定启示作用，于四月份汇价已曾一度触碰250天平均线，但未有明确跌破此指标下，美元之后大举反扑，冲上114日圆上方，近日再度到迫近前位于109of250天平均线，若然再次未有跌破，恐防淡仓会趁机轧平离场，亦即美元兑日圆很大机会将重新反扑。较近阻力预估在112水平，下一级则参照五月份未能突破的114.40。另一方面，若然250天平均线意外失守，下延较大支撑预估为108and106.50Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 112.00 - 114.40 – 115.50
support 108.80 – 108.00 – 106.50



GBP pound ─ 英镑反弹，受助于通胀数据高于预期

图表走势所见，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655。当前较近阻力会先看1.29，另一个瞩目位置则见于1.3050水平，此前历经多日仍是难越雷池，若后市未能穿越此区，需防范回挫风险。下方留意上升趋向线1.2680，若持于此区下方，料英镑仍有进一步探低倾向，延伸支持可留意100Balance moving average1.2620Next level will see1.25and1.2360Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3050* - 1.3230 – 1.3500 – 1.3655
support 1.2730 – 1.2580 – 1.2360

CHF Swiss franc ─ 瑞士央行维持活期存款利率在负0.75%unchanged

美元兑瑞郎方面，技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其这两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,50%and61.8%的调整幅度为0.9710and0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9760，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考，较大阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9920Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9760 - 0.9850  0.9920
support 0.9600 - 0.9560 – 0.9251
                                                                  


AUD AUD ─ 澳元受乐观就业数据提振跳涨


As seen in the technical chart, from2016year12月，澳元兑美元多次下探0.7160支撑，未有破位下则引伸大规模反扑，至今年3month21Daily contact0.7750，之后澳元反复滑落。现阶段较近支撑预估在50Balance moving average0.7480and0.7330水平，关键支持则回看0.7160水平。向上则留意0.76水平，若未能更上一层楼，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈现初步回落迹象，或见澳元将迎来调整。至于较大阻力预估在0.7680and0.7750Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7600 –0.7680 – 0.7750
support 0.7480 -0.7330 - 0.7160



NZD New Zealand dollars ─ 纽元因疲弱数据走低

纽元兑美元周四承压，脱离上日所及四个月高位0.7319美元。新西兰第一季经济较前季增长0.5%，低于此前路透访查分析师预估的增长0.7%，亦远低于新西兰央行预估的增长0.9%。

技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，其中上周五更成功突破250天平均线，预估纽元倾向继续探高。预估纽元兑美元的关键支撑在0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。预期进一步支撑将参考0.65水平。上方阻力则瞩目于0.7250，22月下旬多番上探亦未能成功闯过，若今趟可成功破位，料纽元仍可望延续反扑进程，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7250 - 0.7380 - 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6690 – 0.6500
                                                                       
CAD Cad ─ 央行基调转变，加元大幅攀升element

美元兑加元走势，在四月低位1.3220，汇价跌势止步于200天平均线，随后一个月时间大幅走高至迫近1.38水平，至近月重新回挫，并于本周一同时跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，而下一个焦点将是1.3220，若再而跌破此区，将更为强化续跌机率。以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为1.3290Expand to50%and61.8%则分别看至1.3130and1.2970. In addition,1.3060为另一较长期上升趋向线所在位置，亦为瞩目支持参考。上方阻力则回看200Balance moving average position1.3330For materials with high resistance1.35and1.3550Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3330 – 1.3500 - 1.3550
support 1.3220 - 1.3130 – 1.3060 - 1.2970
                                                                  

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)