Wu Shiyun: Market Focus on Fed Rate Resolutions 6.13Can gold recover lost land?

There is no right or wrong in the market, and all right or wrong is a change in people's hearts. When we lose money, many people say we did wrong, and when we make money, they say we made money. The market is just going that way. Our right and wrong are not related to it. We have not kept up with its pace and have not stepped on its footsteps accurately. Whether it's losing money or making money, we need to summarize and think about how we got to the right pace in the market, and why I didn't keep up with it. We need to ask ourselves a few more reasons. As long as people still have a breath, it's impossible to have problems. Some people are good at discovering and solving problems, so these people are generally leaders in a certain industry, and they take everything for granted, It's all the following of others, and we actually control which role you want to play.


goldMessage surface:


Golden Monday（6month12Prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, the trend remained stable, with the US market hitting its lowest point during the session1263.23dollar/ounce. The Federal Reserve's policy meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to provide clues on the timing and magnitude of future interest rate hikes. There were no major data releases during the day.

After breaking through the six year downward trend line, gold rose to11month4The highest level since the beginning of the year, with an increase of up to10.5%。 There are many reasons to explain the high demand for gold. Firstly, it is known as a tool for hedging inflation. Although there is currently no real inflation to speak of, it is more related to expectations, and there is evidence that funds are flowing into US inflation protected bonds and other inflation protection tools.

Secondly, like all global commodities traded in the US dollar, gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar. Due to growing market doubts about President Trump's successful launch of the pro growth agenda, the US dollar has2The depreciation has continued since the beginning of the month.

Thirdly, when interest rates are low, gold is seen as a substitute for fixed income assets. Most developed countries have low interest rates. The European Central Bank implements negative interest rates, and depositors in Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark also need to pay for storing their money in banks. JPMorgan Chase announced last week that the global number of negative yield bonds has once again increased, reaching as high as9.8Trillion US dollars.

Fourthly, gold appears to be the only commodity in the commodity sector showing signs of strength, making it attractive to commodity analysts. This also applies to volatility, which has broken through the downward trend of other commodity markets.

Fifthly, the US stock market is trading at a near record high, leading more market experts to warn investors that the stock market is overvalued and is expected to experience a crash. Unlike the stock market, gold does not have an inherent earnings per share value and is considered a safe haven asset.

Sixth, there is a significant amount of geopolitical risk supporting safe haven investment, from the spread of radical Islamic terrorism to unpredictable North Korea, the Philippines, and Russia, to the potential for Brexit by the UK and other EU countries, to the tense relationship between Gulf Cooperation Council members and Qatar, as well as the tense situation in the Middle East, which all raise concerns among investors. In addition, US intervention in Russia2016The investigation into the general election in also weakened Trump's hopes of launching a fiscal stimulus agenda.


6.13Analysis of Gold Technology


After the end of the UK election, a floating meeting has reappeared, and the election results have disappointed the market greatly. Last Friday, gold broke the limit1271Low closing, with the pessimistic and disappointed sentiment of the UK election on Monday and the expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Thursday, the gold US market once again fell below1264.5New low to1263.6Low income. And yesterday, it didn't break twice1271Although it fell below Friday1264.5Low point, set a new low. Even if the bears fall and the volatility increases, there is still1259The front is low on support, and without breaking the support, we are not strong bearish.


From the pre agricultural starting point,1259It is obvious not to break the support. Unbreakable1259It will rebound. However, the rebound strength is weak and has not broken through yesterday1271High point, low harvest in the early morning without breaking through1263.5A low point indicates that the bulls have some resistance, and it does not rule out a successful rebound.





Yesterday it fell, and gold closed at the negative cross star line, with some easing in strength. In the short term, gold seems to have bottomed out. But I think the premise of being bullish is that it's best to break through1271.5The high point position of the market can only continue to rise continuously if it breaks through. If it does not break through, it will only continue to malignant.


Also, the downward trend is the same. The strength is not enough, and the bottom horizontal trend is better. This way, the rebound and retreat will not be as strong, and the downward space and speed cannot keep up. In addition, the price is still closing at5、10Above the weekly line, it indicates that the market is still relatively strong and has not fallen behind1260Previously, it was estimated that this wave was just a correction in the market, and with the time coming for the Federal Reserve to negotiate interest rates, it is unlikely that gold will rise again on the night of the rate hike, just like the previous one.


We can rely on1259Low point, buy long orders first on dips. Dislocation1259Leave the venue later. Top Focus1271and1273.5Resistance. The most stable strategy is to wait for a rebound to become safer, and treat gold as a more volatile one. Below1259-1273.5Interval oscillation.


So let's organize our thoughts. Today, I think we should continue to be bearish and not break through the low point to rebound. hold1271.5and1276.5At high altitudes. Unbreakable1271.7We see a weak decline, not breaking1276Look at the oscillation being slightly empty. radical1268.5Going into the air or watching, steady1273Empty, stop loss only needs to be placed on1276.5, look at the goal1260, falling below1259Support, look1255low point.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


Moderate Suggestions Rebound1271-1273Empty, stop loss check4US dollars, target see1263.5


Radical suggestions1268-1270Empty, stop loss4US dollars, target see1263.5-1260


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