Looking at the Quantitative Characteristics Behind the Rise of the Growth Enterprise Market

stay5month17In an article titled "Quantifying the Truth behind the Big Rise of the ChiNext Index", Ri emphasized the quantitative characteristics behind the rise of the index at that time. The original text is as follows:“......Faced with the significant activity of the ChiNext index, various media have provided relevant reasons for this round of rise: from the perspective of valuation level, the current level of the ChiNext index with a deeper recent decline corresponds to the current level2016Annual P/E ratio is approximately38If we assume that the profit growth of the ChiNext board this year is doubled20%So2017The annual P/E ratio is approximately31times......”；“......From the relevant data on the Bohr Quantitative Platform, it can be seen that there has not been any significant change in the dominant momentum data of the index recently, and the characteristic of being bullish is not obvious. Therefore, the rise of the index is not driven by changes in the nature of funds. However, from the perspective of probability data of this index, there is a significant difference in5month11In the daily trading session, the index hit a high long probability for the week68%position......”。

At that time, from the perspective of quantitative data, it was pointed out that the rise of the index was a probabilistic increase, and as a Bohr user, special caution was needed. On the premise that the overall nature of funds has not changed, such an increase is often a short-term behavior. At the same time, when it rises to a high short selling probability position, attention should be paid to the risk of the index fluctuating and falling back. And after about a week, let's take a look at this together5month17In the future, the ChiNext Index（399006）The overall trend and quantitative data situation of.




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It is not difficult to see from the above figure that in the5month11After the index hit a high long probability level, the rebound triggered by this round has been maintained until5month17At that time, the index was close to a high short selling probability68%At this position, the probability of the index oscillating and falling back increases. Therefore, behind the probability based rise, it is reasonable for the index to experience fluctuations near this region.

Following this round of ChiNext Index（399006）From the perspective of probability data, the rise of the index is also caused by approaching a high long probability position. However, it is important to note that behind the rise, there is a dominant force of short covering. Although this force cannot drive the index to continue rising, once there is a long force to return after covering, the possibility of the index stopping its decline and rebounding will not only increase significantly, but also if the long force is not reduced, the space for sustained rise will be even greater.




Faced with the rise of the market, industry, and individual stocks, through Bohr's quantitative data, we can see not only the surface of the rise and fall, but also the quantitative data behind the rise or fall through the surface, so that we can adopt different operational strategies according to different situations.

Important note: By adding“bull591”By adding Bor's official WeChat account, you can timely understand the quantitative data of the market industry and individual stocks, and also check the changes in individual stock data.