大有外汇联盟：风险规避仍是市场主题，黄金与日元强势依旧

在上周五的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈小幅震荡整理的走势，美元指数最高上涨到100.61，最低下跌到100.36, closing at100.48。欧美最高上涨到1.0631，最低下跌到1.0606, closing at1.0612。


　　金融市场上周五迎来美国重磅数据与备受关注的汇率报告的洗礼。公布的美国“恐怖数据”与CPI意外爆冷，暗示美国经济并不及软数据显示的那般强劲，美联储加息预期恐将降温。美国商务部公布的数据显示，受到汽车销量下滑的影响，美国3月零售销售连续第二个月下滑，3The monthly retail sales rate has decreased0.2%，预期为下滑0.2%, USA2月零售销售环比下降0.3%，这两个月零售销售创下逾2年来最大跌势。除此之外，今天的消费者物价指数报告也表现疲软，尤其是CPI月率下滑0.3%, for2016year2月来首次下滑。


　　美国劳工部数据显示，美国3monthCPI月率下跌0.3%，若不包括食品和能源，美国核心CPI较上月回落0.1%, for2010year1月以来首次下降。假如美国通胀数据出现降温，可能会缓解美联储更早加息的压力，这对于美元走势而言同样不利。


　　美国财政部周五晚些时候公布的外汇**半年度报告显示，特朗普**未将任何主要贸易伙伴列为货币操纵国，确认了其决定放弃给中国贴上这一标签的竞选承诺。


　　从技术上来看,美指上周五反弹仍然受阻在100.60之下，收盘在100.48，意味着美元短线空头能量得以释放。但美指5Daily moving average dead cross10日均线，也会给汇价的反弹带来阻力。美指就算今天突破100.70—100.75的阻力，反弹也有可能继续受阻在101.00之下，然后回落整理。美指后市只有有效跌破100.00，我们才会继续看空美元的后市走势。美指只有突破日线下降趋势线所在的位置101.30之上，我们才会转为看多美元的后市走势。今天美指短线阻力在100.70—100.75Short term important resistance100.95—101.00. Today, the short-term support of the US Index is on100.35—100.40Short term important support in100.20—100.25。欧美上周五反弹受阻在1.0630之下回落，短线企稳在1.0600之上，收盘在1.0612，意味着欧美短线多头能量得以释放。汇价重新跌破5、10日均线，令我们对欧美的反弹力度有所怀疑。欧美只有站稳在1.0700之上，汇价才有可能继续扩大上涨的空间。如果今天欧美今天回落在1.0590之上受到支持，汇价还有机会反弹到1.0640even to the extent that1.0660，但继续反弹的难度开始增加。如果今天欧美跌破1.0560的支持，向下延伸的目标在1.0520—1.0530。在汇价没有跌破1.0500之前，我们对欧美的走势还不会过于悲观。今天欧美短线阻力在1.0625—1.0630Short term important resistance1.0635—1.0640. Today, short-term support in Europe and America1.0590—1.0595Short term important support in1.0565—1.0570。


The US dollar is mainly short selling during high periods today, breaking levels to stop losses and making profits30Set a stop win for orders with more than one point, and withdraw all outstanding orders before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin trading and a firm offer can be used as a reference.


US dollar index: can be found in100.70—100.20Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit20Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.


Euro/USD: can be used in1.0640---1.0590Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.


GBP/USD: can be used in1.2550--1.2480Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.


USD/Ruilang: You can find1.0080----1.0010Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.


USD/Japanese yen: can be used in109.30----108.30Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.


AUD/USD: can be used in0.7600---0.7540Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.


USD/CAD: Can be used in1.3350—1.3290Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.


　　gold: Can be found in the1300.00—1282.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.


　　白银：可以在18.70—18.40Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.15USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.