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凸显美国经济基本面强劲

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Huitong Network3month29Daily News - United States3月消费者信心指数劲扬至逾十六年高位,与此同时劳动市场益发乐观;2月商品贸易逆差大幅缩窄,表明经济在年初跌跌撞撞后重获动能。

Tuesday(3month28day)的其他数据显示,1月房价进一步上升,凸显美国经济基本面强劲。消费者信心稳健,以及房价上扬所致的家庭财富增长,暗示近期损及增长的消费者支出放缓或为短暂现象。
就业提振信心

虽然其他经济学家预测信心将在4月回落,但他们表示家庭的乐观情绪是受就业市场的良好状况驱动,而非特朗普的承诺。他们指出,就业市场坚挺可能会鼓励美联储在6Raise interest rates again on a monthly basis.

TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz称:“调查显示出现复苏,更重要的是,就业和收入方面的回答是基于当前的表现,而不是对特朗普将会或者不会做什么的预期。”

“如果现实情况如消费者和我们预期的那般发展,那么美联储年内可能还将加息三次。”

美联储在过去的三次会议上两度加息,加息幅度分别为25个基点,最近一次加息是在3月稍早。调查显示,消费者计划购买汽车和大件家电的意愿增强。但购房意愿在近期劲升后下滑。   

此外,商务部发布,2月进出口连袂下滑,商品贸易逆差减少5.9%to648亿美元。该部同时指称,2月零售及趸售(wholesale)库存双双增加0.4%。

这份数据促使巴克莱分析师将第一季GDP环比增长年率预估上调0.4Percentage points to1.6%。

摩根士丹利则将GDP成长预估值由1.0%,调高为1.5%。

Another report shows that the United States1Monthly standard and standard/Case Shiller 20The housing price index in metropolitan areas has increased compared to the same period last year5.7%,12After monthly correction, it will increase5.5%。房价受库存吃紧推动。
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