Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month23Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/美元上行到去年4月以来的大型横盘区间上沿遇阻回落，中期的动荡持续。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元短线创新高0.7750遇阻反转向下，当前澳元已经突破了0.7660支撑，近期的涨势阶段性结束。从主次节奏来看，澳元/美元经过短线连续下落之后，当前围绕0.7640低点有构筑新的次要节奏的迹象，有助于短线弱势的持续，并进一步下落至0.7590. Short line support0.7640,0.7590;resistance0.7700,0.7750。
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/美元继续震荡回落，盘中刷新了一周以来的最低水平至0.7638，日图上录得一根带长下影线的细阴烛。汇价周二冲高受阻后转为震荡回落，之后多头平仓引发汇价进一步下行。今日澳大利亚和中国重要经济数据双双缺席，亚市盘初纽储行宣布维持利率在1.75%不变，并表示将维持宽松政策。之后纽元快速下行，对澳元构成部分拖累。今日晚间可关注下美国上周初请失业金报告和2月新屋销售，预计截至3month18日当周的初请失业金人数将自前值24.1万轻微降至24.0ten thousand;同时预计新屋销售年化月率将增长1.8%to56.5万户，前值为增长3.7%to55.5Ten thousand households.
Key resistance:0.7690/0.7710/0.7740
Key support:0.7630/0.7600/0.7570
　　技术上看，汇价继续震荡回落，录得带长下影线的细阴烛，可见下方存在一定的支撑。不过今日亚市汇价继续走低并试图测试MA(10)支撑，跌破后将进一步指向昨低0.7630and0.76关口，反之若能守住该支撑不破则有望重测昨高0.7690and0.7710。
　　标准foreign exchange：
　　当日内: Down trend.
　　转折点: 0.7695
　　交易策略： stay 0.7695 Below, bearish, target price is 0.7650 , and then 0.7635 。
Alternative strategy: stay 0.7695 On the upside, the target price is set at 0.7720 , and then 0.7750。
　　FX168：
AUD/dollar4小时图上显示，汇价上行潜力有限，因该货币对仍位于20看跌均线0.7700下方，而技术指标小幅反弹，但仍位于消极区域之内。尽管如此，该货币对可能仍会位于0.7600关口上方，获利了结导致汇价在升至0.7700上方之后快速逆转。
Support position:0.7640 0.7600 0.7570
Resistance level:0.7700 0.7740 0.7770
　Dahua Bank:
AUD/美元：中性，交投于0.7600/0.7730区间内。报告称，我们继续坚持此前观点，即澳元当下运动是在0.7600/0.7730区间整固的一部分，即使短期偏向于交投在预期整固区间0.7600/0.7730下端。目前来看，只要澳元未持续性跌破0.7600，预计当前整固将会转向上行。
　　Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7650 0.7600 resistance 0.7750 0.7780
　　澳元昨日波动幅度不大，在我们判断的支撑位之上窄幅波动，预计今日受到失望情绪的影响仍有下行的压力。下方的支撑首先是0.7650的前期支撑，突破后更下方的支撑是0.7600，上方的阻力不变，仍是昨日0.7750的阻力，突破现有的阻力位之后在0.7780的去年阻力位。

AUD to USD
Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0318)24.124.0Waiting

20:30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0318)23.725Waiting

Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to0311)203.0204.0Waiting

21:45Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index for the Week in the United States(to0319)51.0Waiting

22:00U.S.A2Monthly sales of new houses(Annualized monthly rate)+3.7%+1.8%Waiting

22:00U.S.A2Annualized total monthly sales of new homes(10000 households)55.556.5Waiting

22:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to0317)-530-1500Waiting

23:00eurozone3Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index-6.2-5.9Waiting

23:00U.S.A3Kansas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Output Index for the Month+11Waiting

U.S.A3Kansas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Composite Index for the Month+14+14Waiting

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