Is the US interest rate hike a white swan? These few things in life are also affected!

Last night, something happened, and the issue of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates was left behind. A reader sent me a private message yesterday saying, "I don't need to say anything, it's all reflected in yesterday's market, but I don't think so.".

Yesterday, when it rose, almost all the wind was pointing towards the landing of the "interest rate hike boots". However, if it didn't rise yesterday, it would probably be said that the US raised interest rates, and the global stock market fell silent. The impact of interest rate hikes did start earlier, but it will never stop at this moment.

Simply put, a US interest rate hike would lead to a return of the US dollar (as I mentioned yesterday, encountering an unreliable US president would slow down the return), but the US interest rate hike has already started to accelerate. If I remember correctly, since15From the end of the year to16We only raised interest rates once at the end of the year, and now it's just3It started again in a few months.

The interest rate hike in the United States will naturally have an impact on our funds. Perhaps the central government will not immediately use interest rate tools directly (to be honest, the current monetary policy tools are really dazzling), but next we must have entered a cycle of interest rate hikes (the US dollar is much more powerful than the atomic bomb, which are the three major tools for the Americans to conquer the world).

The biggest impact is naturally on real estate. After rough calculation, if you buy one in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou500A house worth ten thousand yuan（500Wan seems to be the starting price, down payment30%That means we need a loan350Wan, which means you may have to put in more effort every year25The interest of ten thousand yuan (don't ask me how to calculate it, that's not the point), which is equivalent to a year's worth of food for many families, or even more.

The house is already at a high level, and strangely, the decline in housing prices is very slow because sellers like to hold onto the property, and if they don't sell it at all, they can rent it out. However, if buyers don't succeed, they will have to go out for real money and interest rate hikes. Therefore, the general estimate is that the decline in housing prices will not be so fast.

But the scarcity of real estate can already be predicted. If money doesn't buy a house, then what to buy? Buying stocks is a form of speculationgoldIt is possible (due to high risks and being controlled by Americans), and there is also the option of buying a car. This is very interesting. If you can't afford a house, then buy a car. Perhaps this will become a standard feature for the new generation in the city.

As an important component of supply side reform, the destocking of real estate drives the upstream and downstream industries, especially the destocking of cement and steel, which is evident. The market direction will also change in the future. You may still remember the emerging industries I mentioned to you a few days ago.

The background of the launch of emerging industries back then was to take over real estate as the driving force for a new round of economy. Lao Gai has already sorted out new energy vehicles, and friends who don't remember can take a look again. You can also check the concept lovers' WeChat official account if you haven't seen it. Next, Lao Gai will compile all the stocks related to the seven emerging industries, and also compile them.