Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month7Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

　Deng Fute:
AUD/美元在日线图去年4month18日开始构筑的大型整理区间上沿遇阻回落，限制了中期涨势的进一步展开。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元经过上周的连续下落之后，上一个交易日反弹到0.7610遇阻回落，当前围绕昨日下落低点0.7570缓慢调整，经过连续调整将会进一步跌向0.7540. Short term resistance0.7610, support0.7540。
Industrial Investment:
　　澳元隔夜表现相对坚挺，震荡走高上探0.7608Step back0.7570附近水平，收录十字星阴线。中国政府工作报告指出，2017年我国GDP目标增速为6.5%左右，并将今年的货币政策定调为"稳健中性"，澳洲依赖商品及中国需求，澳元在经济增长预期上似乎已经走得太远。今日亚市午盘，澳储行将宣布利率决议，预计澳储行将按兵不动，但若声明立场鸽派，将有望打压澳元，反之，澳元将有望上探0.7620一线，但总体趋势仍将可能受到美元的主导。
　　日图继续受MA5/10死叉打压收录十字星，下行风险犹存。4小时图反弹力度不大，反弹将可能提供逢高做空机会。小时图震荡上行在0.7600一线受阻，但尚未宣告反弹结束。日内0.7610下方做空，关注0.7550-40支持区域表现。
Support position:0.7540 0.7500 0.7460
Resistance level:0.7600 0.7620 0.7640
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/美元冲高受阻后小幅收跌，日图上录得一根带上影线的细阴烛。稍早澳元受到空头回补的支撑一度反弹至两日高位0.7608，不过美元反弹令汇价承压回落。美元维持坚挺，因市场越发认为美联储将在3月加息。澳储行将于周二北京时间11:30公布利率决议及政策声明，预计将维持现金利率在1.5%不变，政策声明或老调重弹缺乏新意：将保持中性立场，重申通胀依旧低迷，当前政策符合经济持续发展;或直到第三季度才会转变中性立场。另外日内中国方面还将公布1monthforeign exchange储备，稍晚将迎来美国1Monthly trade account data.
Key resistance:0.7610/0.7630/0.7650
Key support:0.7570/0.7540/0.7510
　　技术上看，汇价冲高受阻后小幅收跌，录得带上影线的细阴烛。今日亚市汇价试图反弹并测试MA(20)阻力，进一步阻力水平看向0.7610and0.7630，若跌破昨低0.7570支撑将看向0.7540and0.7510。
AustraliaGCG：
　　受美元走低影响，澳币昨日最高触及0.76的高位。随后受此位置的压制而开始下行整理。今日悉尼时间下午2点半，澳联储将会公布最新的利率决议，势必会对汇价有一定的影响，但从盘面上来看，汇价上方0.76为目前第一重要的多空分界线，或今日受利率决议影响而强势拉升并突破0.76则顺势做多。上方继续看向0.77，或阴线下行，则有望测试澳币最为重要的0.75的位置，因此今日观测0.76位置的K线表现。
Dahua Bank:
AUD/USD: Neutral, expected to further decline to0.7510。正如上日所说，只要0.7645位置依旧完好，从上周尾段的大幅下滑似乎有跌向0.7510的空间，强劲支撑位于0.7545。目前来看，我行将澳元当前的走弱视为修正回撤，预计不会持续跌穿0.7510。
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7510 0.7460 resistance 0.7630 0.7690
　　今日我们将迎来澳洲央行的利率决议，预计本次澳储行将按兵不动。不过根据近期较为强劲的经济数据，澳储行很有可能在会后言论中表现的乐观，从而对澳元提供进一步支撑。维持判断不变，目前澳元的震荡区间是0.7510-0.7630，大周期上我们也是持澳元坚挺的观点。在目前矿业有所复苏、中国和美国经济发展都较为强劲的情况下，澳洲作为很大程度上受外部环境影响的经济体也会得到较好的提振，在近期的震荡结束之后仍有望上攻0.78一带的阻力。短期内来看，如果下方0.7510The support level has been broken through, and the lower target is at0.7460;The first position above is0.7630The resistance level is also an important support level for early volatility, and the starting position for the decline is further above it0.7700Resistance level.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:45Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(Compared to last week)(to0304)-0.3%Waiting

Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(the annual rate)(to0304)+0.5%Waiting

21:30U.S.A1Monthly trade account(USD100mn)-443-470Waiting

21:30U.S.A1Monthly export(USD100mn)2349.50Waiting

U.S.A1Monthly imports(USD100mn)1906.88Waiting

21:55Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(the annual rate)(to0304)+1.4%Waiting

Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(Monthly rate)(to0304)+0.7%Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：政治因素暂时引领走势，本周迎来欧、澳央行决议（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17030701/）
　　

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