Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD2month13Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/美元日线图近期上行到4month20日以来的调整区间上沿下方遇阻高位调整，经过近期的调整澳元将会进一步攀升至0.7735。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元上周突破了2month2日以来的调整区间上沿，短线的阻力转变为支撑。当前澳元在短线高点0.7695下方遇阻回调，预计澳元日内回调到前期区间上沿0.7660附近获支撑延续前期的涨势。短线支撑0.7630Resistance0.7695。
Industrial Investment:
　　澳元在近期震荡区间底部寻得支持强势走高，并在纽约盘美元回调时快速扩大涨幅，重新指向0.7700一线。此前市场预期，纽储行或比澳储行立场强硬，但事实证明，纽储行倾向于进一步降息而澳储行中性偏乐观的态度为澳元提供支持。此外，大宗商品表现强势，也提振作为商品货币的澳元。
　　日图维持高位震荡，0.7700-0.7600区间不破不立。4小时图上行在0.7700下方再次遇到阻力，但中期上行势头维持完好，小时图震荡偏强，或重新测试0.7700一线。日内建议0.7700-0.7635Sell high and buy low.
Support position:0.7635 0.7600 0.7550
Resistance level:0.7700 0.7730 0.7770
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/美元大幅反弹收高，并创下了2month3日以来的最高水平，商品货币澳元继续保持坚挺，盖过了美元反弹的打压。亚洲时段公布的中国1月贸易帐顺差扩宽至513.Billion US dollars, higher than the previous value407.1亿美元和预估值485亿美元。澳元/美元在数据公布后短线上冲近20点，并在纽约时段美元收窄涨幅之际持续反弹。本周除了美联储主席耶伦将在美国参众两院发表半年度货币政策证词、美国零售和通胀数据以外，中国通胀数据、澳大利亚就业报告也值得投资者关注。
Key resistance:0.7670/0.7700/0.7720
Key support:0.7640/0.7600/0.7570
　　技术上看，汇价大幅反弹走高，日图上录得一看涨外包线，不过汇价目前仍受制于0.76-0.77区间，只有上行突破后才能进一步走高。4小时图上汇价倾向于回落走低，初步支撑看向MA(20)0.7640，进一步支撑看向区间底部0.76。
　　TMGforeign exchange：
　　上周澳元4Hour chart from0.7695遇阻后回调，受20日均线支持0.7605,1小时图价格突破下跌通道，日内将沿下通道震荡上行，上方阻力0.7700Below0.0650。
　　FX168：
AUD/美元：技术面日线图表明，汇价未突破向上的20日均线，目前该均线维持在周图震荡区间底部0.7600Near.4小时图显示汇价呈中性至看涨倾向，汇价突破持平的20SMA，技术指标失去上升动能，维持在积极区域。
Support position:0.7650、0.7605、0.7570
Resistance level:0.7710、0.7745、0.7790
　Dahua Bank:
AUD/美元：看涨，进一步上涨的概率降低，尽管澳元上周五日线和周线均收高利好当前看涨观点，但澳元必须尽快明显突破主要阻力位0.7700，否则短期顶部形成的可能性继续增加。澳元只有明显突破突破0.7700才可能进一步指向0.7735as well as0.7780。
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7610 0.7550 resistance 0.7700 0.7760
　　与上篇报告判断的相一致，澳元周五仍在我们判断的0.76-0.77的震荡区间内运行，短期内预计仍会在这一区间内进行震荡。本周将迎来澳洲的1月就业数据，虽然此前几个月的就业数据波动较大，但是澳联储对就业的信心仍然较足，本周公布的这一数据也可以帮助判断澳联储的信心是否能够得到支持。对于澳元走势来讲，在周四的数据公布前大概率还是在目前的区间内进行震荡，下方重点关注0.7600and0.7550的支撑是否会被突破。上方则是关注0.77and0.7760Resistance.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:45Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(Compared to last week)(to0211)-2.4%Waiting

Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(the annual rate)(to0211)+1.3%Waiting

21:30U.S.A1Monthly Producer Price Index(the annual rate)+1.6%+1.5%Waiting

21:30U.S.A1Monthly Core Producer Price Index(the annual rate)+1.6%+1.1%Waiting

U.S.A1Monthly Core Producer Price Index(Monthly rate)+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%Waiting

U.S.A1Monthly Producer Price Index(Monthly rate)+0.2%+0.3%+0.3%Waiting

21:55Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(the annual rate)(to0211)+0.7%Waiting

Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(Monthly rate)(to0211)+0.3%Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：crude oil上扬趋势持续，交易机会频现（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17021302/）

　　

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