Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD2month8Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/美元日线图上行到4month19日以来的调整区间上沿遇阻升势暂缓，限制了中期涨势的进一步展开，中期上行过程中的阻力在0.7740。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元近期上行到0.7695遇阻一直以高位调整节奏运行，短线运行过程中表现出明显的反复。澳元/美元短线回调到0.7605获支撑围绕下落低点调整，这也使澳元日内仍有进一步回调压力。澳元受到2月初以来的涨势的影响，预计短线回调获支撑延续近期的涨势。短线支撑0.7570,0.7550;resistance0.7680。
　Industrial Investment:
　　受crude oil暴跌以及美元反弹影响，美元/加元连续两日强势拉升，最高上探1.3210一线。数据显示，加拿大12Monthly trade surplus9.23亿加元，好于预期的3.5亿加元，是加拿大两年多来首次连续出现月度贸易顺差。不过，美国页岩油产量强劲增长减弱OPEC等产油国的减产努力，原油向下跌破近期整理区间，拖累加元。
　　日图强势拉升，随机指标暗示有进一步上行的倾向，但仍受下降趋势线打压，需要向上突破才能打开进一步上行空间，4小时图短期均线向上发散，有望为汇价提供支持，小时图强势拉升后小幅回调，短线可能还有调整的空间。日内建议1.3140上方做多，或等待向上突破1.3220follow-up.
Support position:1.3140 1.3090 1.3020
Resistance level:1.3220 1.3260 1.3310
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/美元震荡走低，并刷新三日低点至0.7605，澳储行利率决议对澳元带来的利好不敌美元反弹的压力。隔夜澳储行维持利率在1.5%的历史最低水平，符合市场预期。澳储行随后表示，维持利率不变的决定符合澳洲经济增长和通胀目标。澳元/美元在短暂回落十余点后逆转上行，短线快速拉升近40Point to0.7675。不过自欧洲盘初起美元多头发力，澳元/美元自日高回落，在回吐稍早的全部涨幅后转为下行。澳储行在昨日的利率决议中按兵不动，可能会等到第四季度GDP数据公布后再作考虑，另外投资者将密切关注本周五的澳储行季度货币政策声明。
Key resistance:0.7660/0.7680/0.7700
Key support:0.7600/0.7570/0.7550
　　技术上看，汇价连续第二日震荡走低，并逼近0.76Gateway.4小时图上可见汇价在均线的打压下倾向于进一步下行，短期支撑水平看向昨低0.76and0.7570Looking towards rebound resistance0.7660and0.7680。
　AustraliaGCG：
　　昨日澳联储公布利率决议，本次会议老调重弹，澳币因此下探10点之后开始了迅速拉升50点，从盘面上来看，汇价在亚洲盘冲高后变开始了下行，日线级别上汇价承压于0.77而开始上行，H4级别上汇价目前来看依旧在0.76-0.77区间内震荡，H4级别上跌破0.76则确认顶部位置，日线级别上汇价形成反转形态，日内策略汇价有望继续下行，回调至0.7640入空单，跌破0.76则可顺势入空单。
　　FX168：
AUD/dollar
　　由于美元盘中获买需支撑，该货币对涨势缓解，但在触及0.7605之后随后很快反弹，表明多头依然占据主导地位。4小时图上上涨潜力有限，因汇价未能持稳于20温和看跌均线上方，动能指标在100水平下方转而走低，RSIIndicator in49附近盘整。美市盘中高位位于0.7646，需要突破这一水平才会再次测试0.7700Area.
Support position:0.7630 0.7590 0.7550
Resistance level:0.7650 0.7700 0.7735
　Dahua Bank:
AUD/美元：看涨，澳元进一步涨势料消退。澳元急切需要刺激因素突破主要阻力位0.7700，否则短期顶部形成的风险将迅速增加。换句话说，澳元上周五开始的看涨阶段将可能结束，除非其能在未来1-2日内重返0.7700上方。也就是说，澳元若跌破0.7595则意味着短期顶部形成。
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7610 0.7550 resistance 0.7700 0.7760
　　昨日在美元的强势回归以及中国外储意外跌破3万亿的情况下，澳元从顶部震荡的区间上轨跌落，不过仍守住了我们判断的0.76-0.77The oscillation range of.预计高位震荡的走势还会延续，在震荡过程中更偏空，所以更宜借助阻力位实行空头的入场，下方重点关注0.7600and0.7550的支撑。上方则是0.77and0.7760的阻力位。虽然昨日澳联储的表态对澳元有一定提振作用，但是外部环境有所恶化，美元的强韧和中国有可能的进一步管控使得澳元在近期较难见到大幅突破上行的走势。

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

04:00U.S.A12月消费信贷变动(USD100mn)+245.32+200.0+141.6

05:30Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)22750137

Last week in the United StatesAPI库欣地区原油库存变化(10000 barrels)(to0203)-90.662.4

Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)28686290

Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)5832381420

20:00Last week in the United StatesMBA30年期固定抵押贷款利率(to0203)4.39%Waiting

Last week in the United StatesMBA抵押贷款购买指数(to0203)229.60Waiting

Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Application Activity Index(to0203)384.7Waiting

Last week in the United StatesMBA抵押贷款再融资活动指数(to0203)1248.4Waiting

21:15Canada1月新屋开工(10000 households)20.7041Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)646.6238Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesEIARefinery equipment utilization rate(to0203)88.2%87.8%Waiting

Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)156.850Waiting

Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to0203)386.686Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：美元/日元价格水平再次修正（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17020802/）

　　

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