Crossing the Sea 2017year2month2day

Crossing the Sea 2017year2month2day

Focus this week:
2month2day(Thursday)
U.S.A1monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Fourth quarter unit labor costs in the United States‧非农业生产率初值
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

2month3day(Friday)
U.S.A1Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A1Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A1Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A1Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A1Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A1Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A1monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value  
U.S.A1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A12Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A12Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision   
U.S.A1monthISMNon manufacturing index



Important economic data released today:
17：30 britain1monthMarkit/CIPS建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧forecast53.8‧Previous value54.2
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.3%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：00 英国央行利率决定‧forecast0.25%‧Previous value0.25%
20：30 U.S.A1monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value33,627individual
21：30 美国第四季单位劳工成本初值‧forecast+1.9%‧Previous value+0.7%
21：30 美国第四季非农业生产率初值‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+3.1%
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(1month28Day and Week)‧forecast25.0ten thousand people‧Previous value25.9ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States(1month28Day and Week)‧Previous value24.55ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(1month21Day and Week)‧forecast206.5ten thousand people‧Previous value210.0ten thousand people



News of the Week

U.S.A:ISM-1The monthly manufacturing index rose56.0, for2014year11The highest in the past month
U.S.A12Monthly construction expenditure decreases0.2%
U.S.A1monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.0, for2015year3The highest in the past month


2month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1210.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1203.65



Today's Introduction

美联储决议令鹰派失望，但对经济的看法仍乐观

美元周四跌至11月中旬以来的最低水准，此前美国联邦储备理事会(FED)令期待更为强硬政策立场的投资者失望；美元指数下跌至99.43, for11month14日以来最低水准。美联储周三就美国经济发表了相对乐观的看法，但决策者称一些基于市场的通胀指标仍较低。尽管美联储没有给出明确的升息或下次行动时间的信号，但表示就业增长仍然强劲，通胀已上升，而且经济信心在增强。不过外界担心特朗普贸易保护立场的潜在影响，以及他最近有关汇率的言论。周二特朗普及其一名高级经济顾问强烈谴责日本、中国和德国，称他们使本币贬值以获得竞争优势。周三公布的数据强化了对经济在好转的预期。美国1月工厂活动加快增长，升至逾两年高位。ADP全国就业报告显示，民间雇主在1月新增了24.6万个就业岗位，高于12Of15.1万个。根据路透对102名分析师的调查结果中值，周五将公布的非农就业数据料将显示，1Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities17.5万个。美联储之前预计在2017年会升息三次。虽然经济好转可能会促使美联储升息，但CME GroupofFedWatch Tool显示，市场认为美联储在6月政策会议前升息的可能性不到50%。

周五，美国劳工部将发布备受关注的1Monthly non farm employment report.2月中，美联储主席耶伦将在国会作半年度证词陈述，届时她可能也会提供美联储想法的更清晰线索。



XAU London Gold - 避险买盘支撑金价反弹

金价周四因美元疲软而触及逾一周高点1217.17USD, previously美联储决议维持利率不变打压了美元 。美联储周三在总统特朗普上任后的首次会议上维持利率不变，但对美国经济的评估相对乐观，暗示其在今年收紧货币政策的计划并未改变。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust称，周三其黄金持仓量增加1.34%to809.74Tons.

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域回升，预示金价将续呈反扑。价位方面，上周五低位碰及25天平均线后呈反弹，目前25The antenna is in1192水平，将视为较重要支撑依据，进一步支撑料为1181and1170美元，为最近一轮涨势的38.2%and50%回吐比率；较近支持则会见至1206and1200水平。向上阻力方面，先看100Balance moving average1223USD, next level material is1239and1248USD.

London Gold2017year2month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1206 – 1218
Resistance level:1224 – 1239 – 1248
Support bit:1200 – 1190 – 1175

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month11Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month12Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month13Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month16Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month17Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month18Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month19Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month20Day - 809.15ton
2017year1month23Day - 807.07ton
2017year1month24Day - 804.11ton
2017year1month25Day - 799.07ton
2017year1month26Day - 799.07ton
2017year1month31Day - 799.07ton
2017year2month1Day - 809.74ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
4Monthly goldoptionDue date:3month28day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year1month5day)

Global:33248.5ton(+67.2ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1615.2ton(+32.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 技术背驰，回吐压力增

伦敦白银方面，相对强弱指标及随机指数再呈现背驰现象，回吐风险犹存。下方关键在位于16.80的上升趋向线，若然明确跌破，将更可确认银价短期的调整需要。黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is16.82and16.58Expand to61.8%To achieve16.34美元。即市支撑见于17.40and17.10美元。上方阻力则指向17.90。另外，一组延伸自去年7The large downward trend line of the month is located at18.10美元，相信要升破此两区，才可望摆脱过去半年的弱势发展，延伸阻力可参考18.50and18.80USD.

London Silver2017year2month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.40 – 17.90
Resistance level:18.20 – 18.50 – 18.80
Support bit:17.10 – 16.80 – 16.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month11Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month12Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month13Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month16Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month17Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month18Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month19Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month20Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month23Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month24Day - 10494.58ton
2017year1month25Day - 10494.58ton
2017year1month26Day - 10420.88ton
2017year1month31Day - 10444.47ton
2017year2month1Day - 10414.99ton



EUR euro - 1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI终值创下近六年最高

1月欧元区制造业活动提速至近六年最快，制造业者信心创至少是2012年中期以来最高 。这突显了通胀压力的上升。IHS Markiteurozone1Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value from12Of54.9Ascend to55.2。产出分项指数持稳于12Of56.1, for2014year4月以来最高水平。德国1Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value increases56.4，制造业增速触及三年最高；法国1Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is53.6，创近六年高位；意大利1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI略微下滑至53.0，连续第五个月在50upper.

美元走势受抑，之前美国联邦储备理事会(FED)维持对经济的温和乐观看法不变，但并未发出近期升息的暗示。虽然美国和其它地方的强劲经济数据支撑风险资产，但围绕美国总统特朗普政策的不确定性和担忧情绪令市场不安。美国联邦储备理事会(Federal Reserve/FED)周三维持利率不变。这是在特朗普上任后美联储首次召开的政策会议。尽管美联储在声明中，为美国经济描绘出一副相对乐观的景像，但并未对下次利率行动的时间提供稳固的信号，因美联储决策官员仍等待进一步厘清特朗普经济政策可能的影响。美联储亦未对是否计划削减4.5万亿美元资产负债表规模给出任何暗示。这在美联储的政策圈已是愈来愈热门的话题。美联储公布决议后，美国利率期货削减跌幅，日内基本上持平，反映今年可能升息两次。市场反映3月调整利率的机率仅约20%，低于一周前的约30%。

技术走势而言，预估当前阻力在100Balance moving average1.08水平，下一级将看至下降趋向线1.0980。 becauseMACD指标已呈调头回落，并与讯号线距离收窄，短期或会出现利淡交叉，故后市欧元料会迎来较具规模之调整。较近支持料为1.0720；另外，目前50The antenna is in1.0590水平，若汇价回落此区下方，料欧元将有更强烈之下滑倾向，进一步支撑将回看1.05and1.0360，关键则留意1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Italy1monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Germany1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Italy1monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone12Monthly retail sales

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0800 – 1.0830 – 1.0990
support 1.0720 – 1.0580 – 1.0500



JPY yen - 避险情绪支撑日圆走势

日圆延续涨势，因日本指标10年期公债收益率涨至0.115%, for2016year1月以来最高，此前10年期日债标售所获需求疲弱。与此同时，美元走势低迷，投资者因美国总统特朗普的贸易保护主义政策愈发倾向于避险 . The Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三在总统特朗普上任后的首次会议上维持利率不变，但对美国经济的评估相对乐观。这在一定程度上支撑了美元。

图表走势所见，在一月份，汇价已四度到访112.50水准，但均未能够明确下破，而在目前美元兑日圆又再出现回跌下，倘若依然无法下跌此区，料将会酝酿反扑动能。向上阻力预估在114.20，进一步则会看至25Balance moving average115.20and118水平。至于支持位除了112.50，倘若以去年11month9Daily low101.15to12month15Daily high118.66Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为112；若扩展至50%Will reach109.90。

Related news
日本央行周二维持货币政策不变

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.20 – 115.50 –118.00
support 112.50* – 112.00 – 109.90



GBP pound - 关注英国央行决议

自英国公投退欧以来的英镑跌势，导致英国1月制造业成本增速创下纪录最高，但对出口的提振不大，否则2017year1月制造业增长会更为强劲。Markit/CIPSbritain1Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)小跌至55.9Below12月指数触及的两年半高点56.1，但与市场预估相符。这项调查表明，继去年超越其它竞争国之后，英国经济继续以坚实步伐增长，制造业PMIThe output index is2014year5The highest since the beginning of the month.

英镑兑美元周三触及一个半月高位1.2680美元，因英国经济数据稳健及围绕英国退欧进程的政治确定性增大，激励投资人削减英镑空仓。英国央行今晚将公布通胀数据 ，预计该央行将维持中性政策立场。英国经济的强劲增长迹象，已令金融市场将英国今年升息的可能性提高到了40%。

技术走势而言，在去年12月上旬，汇价没能向上突破100天平均线后而延展三周多的跌势，目前100The antenna is in1.2510，因此，在周四终成功破位后，若短期汇价仍可企稳于此水准之上，将可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向，进一步上望去年12month6Daily high1.2774as well as1.28，关键将指向1.30关口。至于当前下方支持料在1.25and50Balance moving average1.24To the next level1.2250Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: UK1monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI‧Central bank interest rate determination
Friday: UK1monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK1Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.2%, up from the same period last year4.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2774 – 1.2800 – 1.3000
support 1.2500 – 1.2400 – 1.2250



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

美元兑瑞郎走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，估计短线美元有回弹倾向。支持料为0.9950水平，下一级则参考250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.01and1.0350Further, we will see that1.04Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0100 – 1.0350 – 1.0400
support 0.9950 – 0.9840*



AUD AUD - 受贸易数据提振上扬

Australia12月贸易顺差创纪录高位，因大宗商品价格飙升大量创汇，这一意外福音或能减轻该国AAA级债信评级被下调的风险。澳洲统计局周四的数据显示，12The monthly trade surplus is35.1亿澳元，远超预期的22亿澳元。前月数据也大幅上修至顺差20亿澳元。出口跃升5.3%To record breaking326亿澳元，煤炭和铁矿石取得两位数增长；进口则仅增长0.7%。12月当季，澳洲录得48亿澳元贸易顺差，自前一季的38亿澳元逆差惊人转向。那亦将使第四季经常帐赤字大幅收窄。由于标普全球评级(S&amp Global Ratings)曾表示澳洲过于依赖海外融资，因此可能调降澳洲的顶级债信评级，因此经常帐情况的改善可谓相当及时。周四公布的另一份报告显示，12月新屋建设许可下滑1.2%，为五个月来第四个月下降。

澳元上扬，数据显示澳洲上月贸易顺差创纪录新高。澳元飙升至0.7656USD, for2016year11月以来最高位。澳洲统计局周四的数据显示，12The monthly trade surplus is35.1亿澳元，远超预期的22亿澳元，因大宗商品价格飙升大量创汇。

技术走势而言，预估澳元兑美元较大阻力在250Monthly average line0.7710水平，进一步将指向0.78。相对强弱指标及随机指数年初至今一直盘踞于超买区域，在目前有初步回落迹象，并与汇价呈现技术背驰，需防范澳元将有调整风险。下方支持料为100Balance moving average0.75and25Balance moving average0.7460，进一步则仍会瞩目于0.7350Horizontal.

Related news
Australia12月经季调商品/Service trade balance is a surplus35.11AUD 100 million
Australia12月经季节调整后建筑许可较前月降1.2%，较上年同期减11.4%

Focus:
Friday: Australia1monthAIGService Industry Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7800 – 0.8000
support 0.7500 – 0.7460 – 0.7350



NZD New Zealand dollars - 失业率上升打压纽元下跌

纽元兑美元周三略有下跌，因该国失业率上升且薪资增长依旧缓慢。数据显示，纽西兰第四季失业率自八年低点4.8%Ascend to5.2%，因劳动参与率升至纪录高点。

In terms of technological trends, since last year12month23Daily low0.6863至上周四高位，纽元兑美元已录得约450点涨幅；并令至相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，但在目前出现回落的情况下，似乎短期纽元将有延续调整的倾向。若果以此轮的升势计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7145and0.7090Expand to61.8%则会是0.7040。预估关键支撑在0.6950水平。上方阻力将参考去年11Monthly high0.7403，进一步则会看至0.75and50Monthly average line0.7590Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7270 – 0.7400 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 央行总裁波洛兹：重视经济模式，但不可过度

技术走势而言，相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈上扬，示意着美元兑加元可望在短期内重新扬升。向上阻力预估先为1.3350and1.3460，关键阻力则为去年11Month and12月均曾探试未果的1.36关口。支持位则仍会瞩目于1.30关口，若然后市意外失守，则有机会以双顶型态延伸跌势，下一级支撑可看至1.28and1.2720Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3460 – 1.3600
support 1.3000* – 1.2800 – 1.2720



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