Crossing the Sea 2017year1month18day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month18day

Focus this week:
1month18day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A12Monthly industrial production‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing output
United States1monthNAHBHousing market index

1month19day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Monthly overall capital flow
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts
U.S.A1Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index
耶伦发言

1month20day(Friday)
Trump officially takes office as the President of the United States



Important economic data released today:        
15：00 Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+1.0%
15：00 Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+1.7%‧Previous value+1.7%
15：00 Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+0.7%‧Previous value+0.7%
15：00 Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate final value‧forecast+1.7%‧Previous value+1.7%
17：30 britain12Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧Forecast increase5.0Thousand people‧Previous value increase2.4Thousand people
17：30 UK as of11According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧forecast4.8%‧Previous value4.8%
17：30 Average weekly salary income in the UK(包括奖金)the annual rate‧forecast+2.6%‧Previous value+2.5%
17：30 Average weekly salary income in the UK(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧forecast+2.6%‧Previous value+2.6%   
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+1.1%‧Previous value+1.1%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPMonthly rate final value‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate final value‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.8%
21：30 U.S.A12Menstrual seasonally adjustedCPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 U.S.A12月未经季节调整的CPIthe annual rate‧forecast+2.1%‧Previous value+1.7%
21：30 U.S.A12月经季节调整的核CPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 U.S.A12月未经季节调整的核心CPIthe annual rate‧forecast+2.2%‧Previous value+2.1%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week‧Previous value-0.3%
22：15 U.S.A12Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value-0.4%
22：15 U.S.A12Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast75.4%‧Previous value75.0%
22：15 U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.1%
23：00 United States1Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast69‧Previous value70
23：00 Bank of Canada Rate Resolution

1month19day (Thursday)
05：00 U.S.A11Monthly overall capital flow‧Net inflow of previous value188Billion
05：00 U.S.A11Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds‧Net sales of previous value635Billion



News of the Week

International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecast2017年全球经济增速为3.4%
IMF小幅上调2017年美国经济增速预估至2.3%，2018年预测升至2.5%
IMFup-regulation2017年中国经济增速预估至6.5%， 2018年预估维持在6.0%unchanged
IMFup-regulation2017年欧元区、日本和英国经济增速预估

美联储理事布雷纳德警告，特朗普财政刺激政策有加剧通胀风险
联合国料今年全球成长加速，但特朗普政策和英国退欧带来风险



1month17day
LondongoldMorning order price:1217.50
London gold afternoon fixing price:1216.05



Today's Introduction

习近平于达沃斯论坛发表主旨演讲，充分展现中国领导力       

中国国家主席习近平发表演讲倡导自由贸易，突显出在美国将目光转向内部之际，北京方面希望在全球事务中扮演更重要角色。他还告诫其它国家不要只顾追求本国利益，这明显针对特朗普的“美国优先”政策。习近平表示，中国不会靠压低人民币汇率来增加贸易优势，并呼吁所有去年巴黎气候协议的签署国遵守协议。他表示，中国经济已进入“新常态”，但长期向好的基本面没有改变。他并称，2016年中国经济成长率料为6.7%。

联合国在其年度世界经济展望报告中表示，继2016Annual growth2.2%后，预计今明两年全球经济成长将加快至2.7%and2.9%。不过，美国当选总统特朗普提议的税务政策可能给全球经济造成负面影响。英国公投退欧带来不确定性，英国经济2016年估计增长2.0%，今年预计放缓至1.1%，2018年预计成长1.3%。

美联储理事布雷纳德表示，如果特朗普政府实施赤字支出财政政策迅速提振经济，联储可能以更加积极的步伐升息。她自2014年出任美联储理事后一直呼吁对升息采取谨慎态度。她亦表达了与越来越多联储决策者相同的意见，警告在美国经济已然接近全速运行的情况下，预算赤字长期不断扩大可能刺激通胀。

旧金山联储总裁威廉姆斯呼吁未来几年逐步升息，以防经济过热及最终陷入衰退。威廉姆斯称，随着失业率降至4.7%，美国经济已实现充分就业，并称通胀率有望在未来几年达到美联储2%The goal of.



XAU London Gold - 英国“硬退欧”疑虑激发避险买盘

金价周三从上日触及的八周高点回落，因美元从低点反弹，以及投资者在特朗普于本周晚些时候就任美国总统前获利了结。金价上日触及八周高点1,218.64美元。前一日美元指数曾一度触及12month8The lowest in recent days100.26，因之前华尔街日报刊登的特朗普讲话称，强势美元正在“扼杀我们”。此外，市场另一个焦点则在美联储今年数次升息之上。几位美联储官员已经列出了应该逐渐加息的理由。本周三和周四，美联储主席耶伦将就货币政策发表讲话 ，有机会透露其想法。

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25The Tianping moving average has shown a golden cross, indicating that the gold price median will be in an upward trend. However, in recent days, the relative strength indicators and random indices have been high in the overbought area, so caution should be taken against short-term consolidation. The following support estimates are on the upward trend line1200Next level can be seen in1180To the extent that1175美元。向上阻力方面，先看1247and1258美元。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算， 50%The rebound levels will be observed separately1230USD,61.8%Will reach1255Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1212 – 1230
Resistance level:1247 – 1258 – 1265
Support bit:1196 – 1180 – 1175

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month11Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month12Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month13Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month16Day - 807.96ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - High range consolidation

In terms of silver in London, since2011The annual silver price has experienced a long decline, reaching a historic high49.51The US dollar fell to2015Annual low13.60US dollars. stay2016In the year, silver regained stability and briefly7Monthly increase to21.11The US dollar, but subsequently, with the simultaneous rise of interest rates and the US dollar, silver prices plummeted,12Monthly low sighting15.59The US dollar, with silver prices continuing to rise in recent months, is currently a key factor to consider100Tianping moving average, last year11The upward trend in the first half of the month is also constrained by100Antenna, currently in operation17.56US dollars; Additionally, a set of extensions from last year7The large downward trend line of the month is located at18.29The US dollar is believed to break through these two zones in order to break free from the weak development of the past six months. Afterwards, the estimated resistance will be19USD is the gold ratio61.8%The rebound level. On the other hand, the support below is expected to be in the17.00and16.50，下一级指向25Balance moving average16.29USD.

London Silver2017year1month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 – 17.60
Resistance level:18.00 – 18.70
Support bit:16.50 – 16.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month11Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month12Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month13Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month16Day - 10524.06ton



EUR euro - Under overbought pressure, eyeing this week's interest rate discussion

美元跌势在周二加剧，因美国交易员结束长周末假期返回市场，对美国候任总统特朗普周末评论作出反应。特朗普在华尔街日报的一篇专访中表示，美国企业无法与中国竞争，是因为受到强势美元影响。欧元兑美元周二曾触及12month8The highest level since the beginning of the day1.0718。美元在2016年底时劲升，因市场预期特朗普提议的财政刺激将提振经济增长及通胀。但另一方面，特朗普也持续对中国当局采取强硬口吻，他的保护主义谈话现在开始对投资人预期心理造成较大影响 。美国总统当选人特朗普的高级顾问Anthony Scaramucci，周二就美元走强带来的风险提出警告，称“我们需要对美元升值保持警惕。”

The euro against the US dollar has continued to rise since the beginning of the year and saw a rise last Thursday1.0684的一个月高位。不过，今年德国、法国、荷兰都将举行选举，以及可能还有意大利，这都将会增强了政治的不确定性，从而限制了欧元的上涨幅度。技术走势而言，预估阻力则在1.08and100Balance moving average1.0850水平。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均高踞超买区域已达两周多的时间，短线呈回吐风险加剧；此外，欧元周一重新回落至50天平均线下方，目前50The antenna is in1.0580水平，若短线仍未可返回此区之上，料欧元将有更强烈之下滑倾向。下方支撑将回看25Balance moving average1.05and1.0360Furthermore, it can be seen that1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Germany12monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧eurozone12monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value‧
Thursday: Eurozone11Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net inflow of securities investment‧European Central Bank interest rate resolution
Friday: Germany12monthPPI

Related news
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较前月上升1.0%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较上年同期上升1.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较前月上升0.7%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较上年同期上升1.7%, for2013year7月来最高增幅

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0800 – 1.0850
support 1.0580 – 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250



JPY yen - 避险情绪主导日圆涨势

美元周三暂作喘息，此前兑日圆跌至七周低位，投资者在等待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦针对货币政策的演讲。美元兑日圆涨至113水平上方，此前曾触及七周低位112.55。日圆此前已连续七个交易日走强。Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)主席耶伦周三稍晚将在旧金山对Commonwealth Club发表讲话 ，料提供有关政策走向的线索。美国旧金山联储总裁威廉姆斯周二称，即便没有财政刺激，2017年也可能有理由加息三次，如果经济增长和通胀加速，可能有必要加快加息步伐。美国联邦储备理事会理事布雷纳德周二警告称，预算赤字持续扩大可能加剧通胀风险。投资者还等待周三晚些时候发布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)。根据路透调查的经济学家，美国12monthCPI可能上升0.3%，11The monthly increase is0.2%。

图表走势所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数落入超卖区域，要慎防短期美元出现反扑。倘若以去年11month9Daily low101.15to12month15Daily high118.66Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为112，接近于目前汇价水平；若扩展至50%Will reach109.90。向上阻力预料在115.50，进一步则会看至25Balance moving average116.60and118Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan1Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

Related news
Japan11Monthly industrial production revised to increase compared to the previous month1.5%
Japan11The monthly capacity utilization index has increased compared to the previous month3.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.20 – 116.60 – 120.00*
support 112.00 – 109.90

GBP pound - 关注文翠珊就英退欧发表讲话

英国首相文翠珊周二首度公布脱欧计划的概略框架，她表态英国脱欧时将退出欧盟单一市场，不会为了保有部分利益而寻求妥协方案，这与多数英国政坛观察家的预期如出一辙。不过也许意识到最高法院的裁决或将横生枝节，文翠珊梅表示，国会将拥有脱欧协议的表决权，对于脱欧的新安排，企业也会有一段过渡时期进行适应。其言论彻底浇灭了英国为留在世界最大贸易区域，将寻求达成妥协性协议的臆测。文翠珊直言不讳地表达了将会彻底脱离欧盟的态度，即“硬脱欧”。她允诺将寻求最大限度的欧盟市场准入，但她也表示，英国将寻求与欧盟以外的国家签订自由贸易协议，并将限制欧洲大陆移民。

英镑兑美元周二录得至少1998年以来的最大单日百分比涨幅，此前英国首相文翠珊列出了她的“退欧”计划。文翠珊承诺国会将拥有脱欧协议的表决权。一如预期，文翠珊表示英国脱欧时将退出欧盟单一市场，不会为了保有部分利益而寻求妥协方案。英镑兑美元周二上涨约3%Touching1.2416美元，为近两周高位。不过，相对于去年9Month and12月触及的高位而言，英镑仍处于下行趋势。英镑在2016year9Month and12月分别触及1.3445and1.2775美元的高位。

In terms of technical trends, it is estimated that the GBP/USD will continue to be weak in the short term, and upward resistance is expected to be50Balance moving average1.2430，本月初汇价连续两日受制50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.2590Level, last year12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展三周多的跌势，因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。至于当前下试支持则仍会瞩目于1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18and1.1720Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK12Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧UK as of11According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧Average weekly salary income in the UK
Thursday: UK12monthRICSPrice difference
Friday: UK12Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2430 – 1.2500 – 1.2600*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

The trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has recently been in a narrow range of sideways trading, and the multi day low also coincides with50天平均线，就如同上周四及周五。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，估计短线美元有回弹倾向。支持仍会瞩目于去年12At the beginning of the month, there was no permission to break through1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05Horizontal.

Related news
Vice President of the Swiss Central Bank: Negative interest rates are a key link in monetary policy

Focus:
Thursday: Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

澳元周三持于两个月高点附近，因美国候任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表达对美元走强的担忧之后，交易员解除美元多仓。澳元兑美元升见0.7569, for11month14日以来最高。澳元1月迄今已上涨近5%，成为年内表现最好的主要货币之一。澳元走势较12月末发生大逆转，当时兑美元曾触及七个月低点0.7160。投资者将密切关注周四将公布的澳洲12月就业数据，以判断澳洲经济状况。周三数据显示，一项衡量澳洲消费者信心的指数1月几无变动。

In terms of technical trends, the Australian dollar has experienced12月下旬的横盘整理后，今年开局高涨。预估较大阻力在0.76and250Monthly average line0.7710Horizontal. The supporting materials below are0.74and25Balance moving average0.73Furthermore, attention will still be focused on last year5month24The low point of the day0.7145Horizontal.

Related news
Australia1monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index rising0.1%to97.4

Focus:
Thursday: Australia12Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7600 – 0.7710
support 0.7400 – 0.7300 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

一家民间智库周二表示，纽西兰企业信心在第四季升至逾两年最高水平，受助于建筑行业炙热，家庭需求和奶制品行业反弹。纽西兰经济研究所(NZIER)的季度企业观点调查(QSBO)显示，凈28%的受访企业预期，总体业务状况将会改善，为2014year6月以来最高比率，上一季度的比率为凈26%。该调查的产能利用率指标从之前一季的92.5%略升至92.7%。

Regarding the technical trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, let's take a look at the estimated upward resistance first0.7250and0.74水平，进一步至0.75。相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超买区域回落，短期汇价料有继续探低倾向，支持位预估为0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: New Zealand12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7250 – 0.7400 – 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - The fourth quarter survey by the central bank shows an increase in corporate confidence

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30Pass, the next level is visible1.28. Estimated resistance at1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
1month18day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1month19day(four): Canada11Monthly manufacturing sales rate
1month20day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada11Monthly retail sales‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Related news
Canada12月成屋销售按月增长2.2%，按年跌5.0%，房价指数同比升14.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3090 – 1.3000 – 1.2800







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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)