Crossing the Sea 2017year1month17day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month17day

Focus this week:
1month17day(Tuesday)
U.S.A1New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
Speech by British Prime Minister Wen Cuishan

1month18day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A12Monthly industrial production‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing output
United States1monthNAHBHousing market index

1month19day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Monthly overall capital flow
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts
U.S.A1Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index
Yellen

1month20day(Friday)
Trump officially takes office as the President of the United States



Important economic data released today:        
17：00 Italy11Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value4.52Yiyi surplus
17：00 Italy11Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value42.99Yiyi surplus
17：30 britain12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：30 britain12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+1.2%
17：30 britain12Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：30 britain12Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.4%
17：30 britain12Monthly Retail Price Index(RPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.3%
17：30 britain12Monthly Retail Price Index(RPI)the annual rate‧forecast+2.3%‧Previous value+2.2%
17：30 britain12月扣除抵押贷款的零售物价指数(RPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.3%
17：30 britain12月扣除抵押贷款的零售物价指数(RPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+2.5%
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIMonthly rate of input prices‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value-1.1%
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIAnnual rate of input prices‧forecast+15.5%‧Previous value+12.9%
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIMonthly output price rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Front value remains unchanged
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIAnnual output price rate‧forecast+2.9%‧Previous value+2.3%
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIMonthly rate of core output prices‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
17：30 britain12Month not seasonally adjustedPPIAnnual rate of core output prices‧forecast+2.2%‧Previous value+2.2%
18：00 Germany1monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧Predict positive18.3‧Front value positive13.8
18：00 Germany1monthZEWCurrent situation index‧Predict positive65.0‧Front value positive63.5
21：30 U.S.A1New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month‧forecast9.0‧Previous value9.0



News of the Week

International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecast2017年全球经济增速为3.4%
IMF小幅上调2017年美国经济增速预估至2.3%，2018年预测升至2.5%
IMFup-regulation2017年中国经济增速预估至6.5%， 2018年预估维持在6.0%unchanged
IMFup-regulation2017年欧元区、日本和英国经济增速预估


1month16day
LondongoldMorning order price:1202.75
London gold afternoon fixing price:1203.00



Today's Introduction

IMF上调中国和美国经济成长预估，但下调印度预估

International Monetary Fund(IMF)周一将中国今年经济成长率预估上调0.3Percentage points to6.5%，因预期政策刺激将持续。该组织将印度经济成长率预估下调0.4Percentage points to7.2%，因近期印度政府决定废弃大额钞票，令该国消费受创。IMF警告称，中国经济面临大幅放缓或破坏性调整的风险，因政府在应对企业债务方面反应迟缓，而且资本外流亦可能加剧压力。IMF仍预测今明两年全球经济增长率分别增长3.4%and3.6%，2016年全年料增长3.1%。IMF上调美国2017and2018年经济成长率预估，因预期特朗普将推出减税及支出计划。但IMF表示，几个重要新兴市场国家的增速减弱，将大致抵销美国经济的提振效应。

美元周二走势疲弱，市场参与者正在调整头寸。市场目前聚焦英国首相文翠珊将于周二稍晚发表的讲话，以及讲话会对整体风险人气有何影响。根据文翠珊办公室公布的信息，特雷莎梅将发表演讲，提出12项退欧协商优先考虑事项，她将表示英国退欧不会寻求半留半退。几家报纸自周末以来报导，这些优先事项包括退出欧盟单一市场，并重新掌控英国边境的完全控制权。这加剧了投资者对“硬退欧”的担忧，这种担忧已经导致英镑大跌。投资者还关注本周美国联邦储备理事会(FED)官员的讲话，以及1month20日美国总统当选人特朗普的就职典礼，从中寻觅美元和亚币近期走势的催化因素。



XAU London Gold - 英国“硬退欧”疑虑激发避险买盘

黄金价格周二触及逾七周高位，受助于避险买盘，因英国首相文翠珊即将发表的讲话料讨论“硬退欧”计划。金价涨至接近1215dollar , for11month23日以来最高。受英国退欧担忧、中国汇率压力以及特朗普政策不确定性等因素影响，今年上半年金价表现强势。根据英国首相文翠珊办公室发布的信息，她将在周二的演讲中列出12项退欧协商优先考虑事项，她将表示英国不会寻求达成“半留半退”的退欧协议。市场还将关注周五就职之后的特朗普及其美国经济计划。

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25The Tianping moving average has shown a golden cross, indicating that the gold price median will be in an upward trend. However, in recent days, the relative strength indicators and random indices have been high in the overbought area, so caution should be taken against short-term consolidation. The following support estimates are on the upward trend line1200Next level can be seen in1192To the extent that1182美元。向上阻力方面，先看1214and1224美元。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算， 50%The rebound levels will be observed separately1230USD,61.8%Will reach1255Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1202 – 1214
Resistance level:1224 – 1236
Support bit:1192 – 1182

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month11Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month12Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month13Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month16Day - 807.96ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - High range consolidation

In terms of silver in London, since2011The annual silver price has experienced a long decline, reaching a historic high49.51The US dollar fell to2015Annual low13.60US dollars. stay2016In the year, silver regained stability and briefly7Monthly increase to21.11The US dollar, but subsequently, with the simultaneous rise of interest rates and the US dollar, silver prices plummeted,12Monthly low sighting15.59The US dollar, with silver prices continuing to rise in recent months, is currently a key factor to consider100Tianping moving average, last year11The upward trend in the first half of the month is also constrained by100Antenna, currently in operation17.56US dollars; Additionally, a set of extensions from last year7The large downward trend line of the month is located at18.29The US dollar is believed to break through these two zones in order to break free from the weak development of the past six months. Afterwards, the estimated resistance will be19USD is the gold ratio61.8%The rebound level. On the other hand, the support below is expected to be in the16.70and25Balance moving average16.29USD.

London Silver2017year1month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.70 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.20 – 17.90
Support bit:16.50 – 16.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month11Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month12Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month13Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month16Day - 10524.06ton



EUR euro - Under overbought pressure, eyeing this week's interest rate discussion

欧元兑美元自年初以来维持走高 ，至上周四升见1.0684的一个月高位。不过，今年德国、法国、荷兰都将举行选举，以及可能还有意大利，这都将会增强了政治的不确定性，从而限制了欧元的上涨幅度。技术走势而言，预估阻力则在1.08and100Balance moving average1.0850水平。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均高踞超买区域已达两周多的时间，短线呈回吐风险加剧；此外，欧元周一重新回落至50天平均线下方，目前50The antenna is in1.0580水平，若短线仍未可返回此区之上，料欧元将有更强烈之下滑倾向。下方支撑将回看25Balance moving average1.05and1.0360Furthermore, it can be seen that1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: France12Monthly budget balance‧Italy11Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧Germany1monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index
Wednesday: Germany12monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧eurozone12monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value‧
Thursday: Eurozone11Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net inflow of securities investment‧European Central Bank interest rate resolution
Friday: Germany12monthPPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0800 – 1.0850
support 1.0580 – 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250



JPY yen - Trump's First Press Conference Disappoints Dollar Bulls

围绕美国候任总统特朗普(Donald Trump)贸易保护主义政策的担忧，也打压了市场冒险意愿，扶助日圆升至逾五周来最高水平。美元兑日圆跌至113水平，创逾五周以来最低水准，因特朗普的保护主义言论令一些投资者感到不安。特朗普减税及加大基建支出的计划曾提振美元，推动美元兑日圆在12Monthly increase to10Month high118.66。International Monetary Fund(IMF) 在周一上调美国2017and2018年经济成长率预估，因预期美国下任总统特朗普将推出减税及支出计划。然而特朗普本月的保护主义言论，包括对从墨西哥向美国出口汽车车厂的攻击等，令众多投资者担忧不已。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The current resistance estimate is within114.20and25Balance moving average116.60. The support position will be reviewed first112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%的回调水平，进一步看至109.90。

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan1Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

Related news
Japan11Monthly industrial production revised to increase compared to the previous month1.5%
Japan11The monthly capacity utilization index has increased compared to the previous month3.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.20 – 116.60 – 120.00*
support 112.00 – 109.90



GBP pound - 关注文翠珊就英退欧发表讲话

英镑周二在三个月低点附近徘徊，市场担心今日稍晚英国首相文翠珊的讲话将表明，英国将走上舍弃欧盟单一市场准入的硬性退欧之路。英镑处于守势，周一跌至三个月低点1.1983美元。英国首相文翠珊的办公室称，英国不想要那种“一只脚在里、一只脚在外的状态。”她将在演说中阐述12项退欧协商优先考虑事项。据数家报纸报导，这些优先事项包括脱离欧盟单一市场和恢复对英国边境的完全掌控。英国央行的英镑贸易加权指数自去年公投以来已经累计下降逾14%，距离纪录低点并不遥远。

In terms of technical trends, it is estimated that the GBP/USD will continue to be weak in the short term, and upward resistance is expected to be50Balance moving average1.2430Last week, the exchange rate was restricted for two consecutive days50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.2590Level, last year12In the first half of the month, the exchange rate failed to break through this area and extended its decline for more than three weeks. Therefore, the exchange rate needs to break through this area in order to have a tendency to break free from weakness. As for the current trial support, it will be eye-catching compared to last year10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: UK12monthCPI&#8231PI‧RPI
Wednesday: UK12Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧UK as of11According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧Average weekly salary income in the UK
Thursday: UK12monthRICSPrice difference
Friday: UK12Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2430 – 1.2500 – 1.2600*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

The trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has recently been in a narrow range of sideways trading, and the multi day low also coincides with50天平均线，就如同上周四及周五。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，估计短线美元有回弹倾向。支持仍会瞩目于去年12At the beginning of the month, there was no permission to break through1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05Horizontal.

Related news
Vice President of the Swiss Central Bank: Negative interest rates are a key link in monetary policy

Focus:
Thursday: Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

So far this year, the Australian dollar has performed the best among major currencies, with the Australian dollar rising nearly against the US dollar4%to0.75Above the US dollar. Related to12At the end of the month, it was a magnificent turn around compared to the Australian dollar12Moon once touched0.7160The seven month low of the US dollar was driven by bets from various sectors that President elect Trump's policies will drive up US inflation, thereby driving the dollar higher. Due to Trump's recent press conference not mentioning the details of stimulus policies, this type of transaction related to the US stimulus economy has cooled down. At the same time, economic data in Asia and Europe has significantly improved, injecting new vitality into the prices of Australia's main resource export products. The current iron ore price is close to a two-year high, thermal coal price is close to a three-year and a half high, and coking coal price reached its highest level in five years last month.

In terms of technical trends, the Australian dollar has experienced12月下旬的横盘整理后，今年开局高涨。预估较大阻力在0.76and250Monthly average line0.7710Horizontal. The supporting materials below are0.74and25Balance moving average0.73Furthermore, attention will still be focused on last year5month24The low point of the day0.7145Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Australia12Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7600 – 0.7710
support 0.7400 – 0.7300 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

一家民间智库周二表示，纽西兰企业信心在第四季升至逾两年最高水平，受助于建筑行业炙热，家庭需求和奶制品行业反弹。纽西兰经济研究所(NZIER)的季度企业观点调查(QSBO)显示，凈28%的受访企业预期，总体业务状况将会改善，为2014year6月以来最高比率，上一季度的比率为凈26%。该调查的产能利用率指标从之前一季的92.5%略升至92.7%。

Regarding the technical trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, let's take a look at the estimated upward resistance first0.7250and0.74水平，进一步至0.75。相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超买区域回落，短期汇价料有继续探低倾向，支持位预估为0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: New Zealand12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7250 – 0.7400 – 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - The fourth quarter survey by the central bank shows an increase in corporate confidence

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30Pass, the next level is visible1.28. Estimated resistance at1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
1month18day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1month19day(four): Canada11Monthly manufacturing sales rate
1month20day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada11Monthly retail sales‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Related news
Canada12月成屋销售按月增长2.2%，按年跌5.0%，房价指数同比升14.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3090 – 1.3000 – 1.2800





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)