Vantage FXWanzhi: Euro to USD1month16Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
Euro/The mid-term rebound of the US dollar55Encountering obstacles near the daily moving average, two consecutive trading days have received stocks with longer upward shadowskThe line limits the further expansion of the medium-term rebound space of the euro, and it is expected that the euro's rebound will be hindered and the medium-term weakness will continue. From the hourly chart trend, the euro/USD from1month3Since then, the euro has been operating in a fluctuating upward pattern, and last week it reached1.0685The position encountered obstacles and formed a high adjustment rhythm with a slope close to horizontal around the high point. After continuous adjustments, the euro continued its recent volatile upward trend and further set a new high for recent upward movement. Short line support1.0560。
Banda Asia:
Last Friday, the euro fluctuated upwards, with a slight daily increase. The spot exchange rate was traded at1.0630Nearby. except1.0600The technical buying caused by the checkpoint has provided some support for the exchange rate, while the weakening of the US dollar index under the pressure of uncertain concerns about Trump's new policy is the main reason supporting the rebound of the euro. However, the overall good performance of the US economic data during the period limited the rebound space of the euro. Follow Today1.0700Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.0550Near.
Industrial Investment:
The euro's trend fluctuated last Friday, with a brief upward trend after the release of US retail sales data1.0672Failed to reach a new high, then stepped back1.0596Low point, rebounded at the end of the day, and still included a bullish candlestick on the day. Data display, United States12Monthly retail sales growth rate0.6%, less than expected0.7%And the United States12monthPPIMonthly rate growth0.3%Annual growth rate1.6%, for2014year9The largest increase since the beginning of the month indicates that inflation is further approaching the Federal Reserve's target level, confirming Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's optimistic speech on the inflation outlook that day. Yellen also stated that the economy is currently performing quite well and there are no significant obstacles in the short term. Last Friday, Canadian rating agenciesDBRSIndicating that Italy's sovereign credit rating will be adjusted accordinglyAReduce toBBBMeans that Italy has lost the last international rating agencyAThe risk of the European banking industry may force the European Central Bank to reduce the scale of its easing policy, given its level of credit rating. Today, on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the US market is closed, and it is expected that the exchange rate may continue to maintain its recent high and strong volatility pattern.
The daily chart includes a long upward shadow with a positive line, still maintaining a short-term rebound trend, but still limited by resistance near last week's high point, lacking direction before effectively breaking through.4The hourly chart is bearish and saw through, maintaining overall strength but requiring a break above the previous high resistance to open up further upward space. The hourly chart failed to break the high point, but bulls still dominate. Within the day1.0610Long above, stop loss1.0565Look towards1.0710And seek opportunities for backhand shorting.
AustraliaGCG：
Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, the euro began a volatile upward trend. Last week, the overall trend of the euro was1.0350-1.0650The range fluctuates within the range, but from the market perspective,1.0350-1.05The short-term bottom position within the range provides support for the exchange rate, and this position is also a pull up after multiple fluctuations in the exchange rate. On the daily level, the exchange rate has also fluctuated upwards. Given the strong support from the bottom position, it is expected to continue to rise and consolidate in the future. The intraday strategy continues to buy on dips, seeking a position1.06Location of.
Yituo Finance:
After a strong rebound last week, the weekly structure of the euro against the US dollar should continue to rise this week. The resistance level above should be in the middle of the Bollinger Bands and early platform lows1.0820On the front line, you can try to short at this resistance level,1.0860Stop loss.
　　TeleTrade：
Euro/The US dollar continued to fluctuate and rise last Friday, with three consecutive bullish days recorded on the daily chart;The US index has fallen back to101.24Continuing the decline since last Wednesday. The better than expected retail sales in the United States announced on the day boosted the US Composite Index at one point40However, President elect Trump did not mention at the press conference that the impact of fiscal plans and economic policies continued to ferment, suppressing another decline in the US Composite Index. Data display, United States12Monthly retail sales growth rate0.60%, higher than expected0.6%And before value0.2%. There are numerous important economic events and data this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give a speech early on Wednesday, the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate resolution on Thursday, and President Draghi will attend a press conference;And Friday will welcome Trump's inauguration ceremony, from which investors hope to gain more details on the fiscal stimulus plan;This Monday, the US market coincided with Martin Luther King Jr.'s holiday closure, and market trading interest may decline. The European side can pay some attention to this11Monthly trade account, it is expected that the surplus of the unadjusted trade account will decrease from the previous value201Expand to billions of euros240Billion euros. Euro/The US dollar is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but investors need to be cautious of the weak market conditions leading to amplified fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Technically speaking, the exchange rate continues to fluctuate and rise, with three consecutive bullish days recorded on the daily chart. Currently, the daily chart is4The momentum indicators on the hourly chart are still bullish, and the exchange rate is expected to continue a volatile and bullish trend in the short term.4On the hourly chart, it is recommended to slightly decrease toMA(20)1.06Buy long near the checkpoint, with stop loss set at1.0550Target Look1.0660and1.0680。
Yahui China:
Euro/USD received in1.0600Above, for last year11For the first time since the beginning of the month, the press conference of President elect Trump has undermined market confidence in the United States.
Technically speaking, the daily chart shows the Euro/The recent rise of the US dollar has been hindered by11month-1Monthly decline trend38.2%Retreat position1.0710Below, there is a possibility of breaking through this critical resistance in the coming days to confirm further upward momentum, with long-term resistance located at1.0800/40. The exchange rate is still below the moving average, with technical indicators remaining active and moving upwards in positive areas, supporting the exchange rate to rise in the coming days. In the short term,4On the hourly chart, the risk still tends to rise, with intraday support at20SMA, currently located in1.0610Nearby, the kinetic energy index remains upward above the centerline.
Fumano:
　　GBPUSDToday's opening saw a similar downward jump200Point to1.1983Last year10For the first time since the sharp decline of the month, it has fallen below1.20. Regarding the trend of the pound, the author mentioned in last year's analysis and outlook that compared to other European currencies, it is more determined by politics rather than economy that determines the exchange rate. Therefore, until the situation of Brexit becomes clear, the pound still has the opportunity to fluctuate significantly.
Returning to the market, currently1.20Undoubtedly, it is a psychological defense line, and I believe there are good short-term opportunities nearby. Since there has been a sharp drop today, consider finding opportunities to buy. In practical operation, it is necessary to be flexible and adaptable. Rome was not built in a day, and the bottom was not built in a day. There will be an iterative process. Today's short-term support below1.2015.Consider taking a long position in a light position near here, once it falls below1.1990Stop loss, the target position of the rebound above is1.2070
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
EUR/USD：The euro was affected by the possibility of a hard exit from the UK on Monday morning, leading to a decline in the euro40Remaining points, currently located in1.0608Nearby, the overall trend shows that there are certain issues with the euro's upward mobility. There is significant upward pressure and there may be a reversal in the near future, which requires attention1.0700Resistance level, lower support1.0500。

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

18:00eurozone11Monthly adjusted trade account(100 million euros)+197Waiting

eurozone11Monthly and quarterly trade accounts adjustment(100 million euros)+201+240Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: UK Brexit or Hard Landing, GBP/USD Decline1.20level（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17011602/）

　　

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