Industrial Investment Gold Weekly Review: Gold Thousand Two to be Estimated Trump may continue to ignite the market this week

Industrial InvestmentgoldWeekly review: Gold Thousand Two to be estimated Trump may continue to ignite the market this week
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International spot gold has slightly rebounded after a stable non-agricultural sector in the United States, and has resumed its upward trend with almost no pause, reaching its highest level of upward exploration1206.90And maintained a strong fluctuation at a high level, recording three consecutive weeks of gains. Will the gold bulls continue to achieve overwhelming victories in the battle for the thousand two checkpoint?The answer may not be so certain.
Firstly, it should be noted that the recent strong rise in gold prices may be more due to short covering rather than the entry of new bulls. According to the US Securities and Exchange CommissionCFTCReport, the proportion of speculative short positions reached37%(At normal levels20%below)As of1month10During the current week, the long positions in gold increased8,325This contract is the first since Trump's election. Furthermore, since the beginning of the year, this round of gold rebound has not been accompanied by goldETFThe increase in holdings is only a temporary suspension of selling. From these data, it can be seen that most investors in the market are still choosing to wait and see.
The reason for this phenomenon is closely related to the contradiction between the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the optimistic expectations of the market for accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes, as well as the unclear policies of US President elect Trump. Last week, several officials from the Federal Reserve expressed optimism about the outlook for the US economy and raised interest rates this year3Second and even faster expressions of support, following the United States12According to monthly non farm payroll data, after accelerating salary growth, last week in the United States12Monthly retail sales also indicate signs of acceleration in US consumption, which may further stimulate rising inflation. However, at Trump's first press conference after winning the election last Wednesday, he disappointed the market and avoided discussing tax cuts and spending increases. The uncertainty in the implementation of his fiscal policy has kept the market cautious. Before the clarification of fiscal and monetary policies, long or short positions were unwilling to increase their holdings and adjusted their positions, resulting in a huge amount of front short positions and forming a strong replenishment market.
However, in the1200Near the checkpoint, the upward momentum has slowed down, which may also mean that the market will face a new direction of choice. Although Monday is Martin, USA, this week?Luther?Gold Day, but the next four days will be followed by heavyweight events. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen delivered two speeches on Tuesday and Friday, the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday, and Trump will officially take office at the White House and deliver his inauguration speech on Friday. In terms of importance, as the source of uncertainty lies in Trump's new policies, Trump's speech may be of utmost importance this week. Whether Trump can provide a detailed statement on his new policy this week and satisfy the market is expected to determine the direction of gold prices in the future. As for Yellen and the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting, the former may continue to express confidence in the economic outlook, but given their shared observation of Trump's new policies, their speech may have limited impact. Despite data showing a rebound in inflation and Germany's resurgence of voices about the ECB starting to tighten quantitative easing, the ECB is12After adjusting monetary policy on a monthly basis, there may not be significant changes this time. If ECB President Draghi maintains a loose stance at the post meeting press conference, it may briefly suppress the euro, putting pressure on gold denominated in US dollars, and vice versa.
Technically, gold prices have been rising for three consecutive weeks, with random indicators indicating further upward potential, but effective stability is needed1200Only through the checkpoint can further upward space be opened, pointing towards1225-30. The daily moving average system is arranged in multiple positions, but1200The upward trend at the checkpoint has slowed down, and it is necessary to confirm a breakthrough before being bullish. This week's trend5If the daily moving average does not break, then go long with a pullback, 1206.90Short selling in a weak position on the front line, and follow up after confirming the retracement when breaking up. support1193/1187/1177,resistance1207/1215/1225。