【敏金之道】1.16油价多头乏力，美原油、白银日内走势分析

International News
  US goodsfuturesTrading Committee(CFTC)Friday(1month13day)The weekly report released states that as of1month10日当周，对冲基金及其他基金经理连续第二周减持美国crude oilFutures andoptionNet long position, previously net long position increased for four consecutive weeks. Data shows that the New York Mercantile Exchange(NYMEX)Crude oil and London Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)WTINet long decrease in crude oil futures and options5151Hand, to327057Hand.
  Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(BakerHughes)Friday(1month13day)According to published data, as of2017year1month13The number of active oil wells in the United States decreased during the current week7Seat to522Seat12The first decline in the past week, and also the second decrease in seven months.
  油价在过去一个半月里保持区间波动，买家受到主要产油国减产消息鼓舞，但对这些国家过去减产幅度小于协议减产量的做法保持谨慎。石油输出国组织(OPEC)于去年11月达成从年初开始减产的协议，旨在缓解过去两年多来打压油价的过剩状况。有人认为市场目前处于盘整模式，随着越来越多的迹象显示，产油国正在落实减产协议，油价将再次测试55美元，市场努力上行，并对这些国家是否挂羊头卖狗肉持观望态度，沙特能源大臣法力赫称，沙特已经将产量减至近两年来最低。
  总结：沙特已经完全执行减产计划，并喊话油市需求增速乐观，伊拉克油长亦表示下周将会增加减产力度亦到达完全执行减产，这令市场此前对产油国减产力度的质疑明显减弱，为油价支撑，但油市供剩局面仍然存在，投资者仍需提防空头的反扑。
【美原油技术分析】
  从四小时走势图来看，目前油价呈现短线暴跌，有跌穿布林带中轨及MA20Situation, trading in52.5Near the US dollar, with downward support looking towards52.1USD, looking towards short-term resistance above53美元整数关口附近。从指标来看，KThe line oscillates above the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, as shown in the attached figureRSIThe indicators converge and extend downwards.MACD双线交死叉向下运行。敏金之道认为可观望至高点附近空单进场，一旦有效下破52美元关口，油价短期很难有大的反弹。综合来看，短线油价下行充足，操作上本人建议反弹做空为主，防守多单为辅！

  Suggestions for US crude oil operations:
upper53-53.2美元附近布局空单，止损0.4US dollars, look at the target52.1-52美元附近，破位持有！
Follow Below52美元关口破位情况布局多单，止损0.4US dollars, look at the target53.1Around the US dollar.
Silver Technology Analysis
  白银昨日收取一个十字阳线，昨日收盘16.739dollar/盎司，今日开盘16.749dollar/盎司，技术面上，从日线图来看布林带持平，KThe line runs between the upper and middle tracks in the Bollinger Belt,MA5Upper dressingMA10，MA5/MA10Upper dressingMA20形成银山谷"形态，四小时图来看，布林带向上运行，K线运行于中上轨之间，MA5/MA10均线拐头向下，小时图来看布林带张口，KThe line runs between the middle and lower rails,MA5/MA10向下运行，综合来看，敏金之道建议白银低多为主。

  Suggestion for Silver Operation:
proposal16.5Multiple orders entering near the US dollar, stop loss0.3USD, target17.2USD;
proposal17.2美元附近空单进场，止损0.3USD, target16.6USD;
   笔者敏金之道（微信：mjzd168，公众号：minjinzd）是金融投资分析师，从事金融行业多年，研究国际局势和热点事件。金融领域博大精深，每天行情波折不断，我所能做的就是用我多年的研究经验，给大家帮助。