Crossing the Sea 2017year1month13day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month13day

Focus this week:
1month13day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget  
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值

1month17day(Tuesday)
U.S.A1New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month

1month18day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A12Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)
U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A12Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A12Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing output rate
United States1monthNAHBHousing market index

1month19day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A11Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A12Monthly housing construction starts
U.S.A1Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index‧



Important economic data released today:
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.6%‧Previous value+1.3%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.4%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIthe annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.6%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.8%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIMonthly rate‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.7%‧Previous value+0.1%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.2%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-0.2%
23：00 U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值‧forecast98.5‧Previous value98.2
23：00 U.S.A1月密西根大学现况指数初值‧forecast111.5‧Previous value111.9
23：00 U.S.A1月密西根大学预期指数初值‧forecast90.2‧Previous value89.5



News of the Week

China12Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase2.1%
China12monthCPIMonth on month increase0.2%
China12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase5.5%，涨幅创2011year9The highest since the beginning of the month
China12monthPPIMonth on month increase1.6%
China2016yearCPIYear-on-year increase2.0%，PPIYear-on-year decrease1.4%
U.S.A11月批发库存较前月增加1.0%
U.S.A11月批发销售较前月增长0.4%
美国劳工部职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)display11月经季节调整后职位空缺为552.2ten thousand
China12Monthly trade surplus2754.18RMB 100 million/408.18USD100mn
China12月以美元计价出口同比下降6.1%，进口同比增3.1%
China12月以美元计价进口同比增长3.1%
China12月以人民币计价出口同比增长0.6%
China12月以人民币计价进口同比增长10.8%


1month12day
LondongoldMorning order price:1206.65
London gold afternoon fixing price:1205.05



Today's Introduction

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)主席耶伦在为教师准备的演讲稿中，未评论美国经济前景及货币政策。她表示，改善美国的教育能够帮助提高生活水平。之后她在与教育人员的会议上表示，美国经济表现良好，短期内没有重大障碍，劳动市场看来相当强劲。美联储官员周四谨慎表示，即将上任的特朗普政府所提出的扩大财政支出及减税计划可能在短期内提振经济，但他们或许不得不应对更长期的通胀和债务问题。多位美联储地区联储总裁在不同场合表示，原则上同意当选总统特朗普可能实施的政策将通过减税刺激直接支出、消费和投资，从而促进经济增长，而放松监管也会对企业有利。

市场翘首以待的特朗普当选后首场记者会未谈及经济政策，令美元多头大失所望，美元周四触及五周低点后持稳。美元周三曾因预期特朗普首个记者会上将透露减税等刺激政策细节而上涨，但市场期待落空后，美元指数应声落至12month8日以来最低。与此同时，美元回调减轻了人民币压力，人民币汇率周四开始大幅上涨。下周将迎来欧洲央行和加拿大央行的利率决议，美联储将发布经济状况褐皮书，可略窥全球经济状况，并推测未来货币政策差异。此外，美国新总统特朗普将于1month20日入主白宫，成为第45任美国总统。数据方面，欧美多个国家将公布通胀数据，将展示全球央行难解的问题是否有所进展。



XAU London Gold - 金价遭遇技术性修正

伦敦黄金周五走低，回见至1190水平，因美元小升，且金价遭遇技术性修正，金价上日曾触及七周高位1206.98美元。美联储主席耶伦在为教师准备的演讲稿中，未评论美国经济前景及货币政策。美联储官员周四谨慎表示，即将上任的特朗普政府所提出的扩大财政支出及减税计划可能在短期内提振经济，但他们或许不得不应对更长期的通胀和债务问题。

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25天平均线处于交迭，预示着金价中线强势即将展开 ，但连日来相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1187and1180Next level can be seen in1164and1155US dollars. Estimated resistance above1198and1204。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，50%的反弹水平将会见至1230USD,61.8%Will reach1255Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1187 – 1198
Resistance level:1204 – 1214 – 1230
Support bit:1180 – 1164 – 1155

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month11Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month12Day - 805.00ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - High range consolidation

伦敦白银方面，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已陷入严重超买区域，并暂见出现回落迹象，故需留意潜在调整风险。阻力会看至17.20and17.50The larger resistance is200Balance moving average17.83美元。另一方面，下方支持预料在16.40and15.50美元，较大支持预料为15.00USD.

London Silver2017year1month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40 – 17.20
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.80
Support bit:15.50 – 15.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month11Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month12Day - 10524.06ton



EUR euro - test50MA

周四公布的一项路透调查显示，近来对于欧元区经济增长和通胀形势终已好转的乐观看法，恐面临考验；而且唯有几个国家今年的选举不出现重大意外打击，那样的观点才能维持。调查回复者预估2016年第四季及2017年第一、二季欧元区经济料各增长0.4%，今明两年全年平均各增长1.5%，通胀率料各为1.4%。欧元区去年第三季经济增长0.3%，增幅同于第二季，所有成员国经济均有扩张，即便是希腊等非核心国家亦然。但此后有迹象显示增长增强。例如11月欧元区工业生产跳增，德国去年底创五年来最快经济增速。然而路透本周对逾65名经济分析师的调查显示，分析师对增长和通胀的预估基本与前次调查的变动不大，回复者称因英国公投退欧及特朗普当选美国总统后，保护主义心态抬头造成的不确定性所致。今年德国、法国、荷兰都将举行选举，以及可能还有意大利。意大利上个月的宪法公投，掼压欧元兑美元跌至21个月低位；尽管其对金融市场的影响不若英国2016year6月的英国退欧公投，但它的确增强了政治不确定性。上周路透调查预测，分析师平均预测欧元/dollar12个月后将从现在的1.06贬值到1.04美元，同时受访者的预测中值显示，2017年降至或跌破平价的可能性为50%。欧洲央行已斥资逾1.4万亿欧元主要买进主权债，上个月还意外表示，自4月起将缩减每月购债规模至600亿欧元。目前为每月800亿欧元。此举令金融市场大感意外，因为欧元区的通胀率仍仅为欧洲央行略低于2%的目标水准的一半左右，尽管数年来大举印钞，而且推行了零政策利率和负存款利率。尽管欧元区12月通胀达到三年半来最高水平，但通胀前景仍然偏弱。受访的超过60名分析师中，没有人预估今、明两年通胀率为2%。受访分析师一致表示，在4月开始调降月度购债计划规模后，欧洲央行的下一步举措将是进一步削减量化宽松规模。至于欧洲央行1month19日的会议，所有分析师皆预估该央行将维持政策稳定。最新的调查中，欧元区许多主要国家的长期成长预估都出现下调。德国至2018年中将维持每季经济成长。2017年平均通胀率料为1.6%。调查发现，2017年法国经济成长率料为1.1%、意大利为0.8%，爱尔兰则为3.5%。

技术走势而言，预估下方支撑将回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0620，过去一个多月高位亦见受制50天线，故短期仍无法破位下，将增加欧元回吐的风险，预料较大阻力料为1.08and1.10Horizontal.

Focus:
1month16day(one): Italy12monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone11Monthly trade balance
1month17day(two): France12Monthly budget balance‧Italy11Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧Germany1monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index
1month18day(three): Germany12monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧eurozone12monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value‧
1month19day(four): Eurozone11Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net inflow of securities investment‧Europe1Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate1month20day(five): Germany12monthPPI

Related news
eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index rose18.2
eurozone11月失业率持稳于9.8%
Italy11The monthly unemployment rate has risen11.9%，为近一年半来最高
Germany12月批发物价较前月上升1.2%, up from the same period last year2.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0620 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000*



JPY yen - Trump's First Press Conference Disappoints Dollar Bulls

一项日本央行的调查显示，10-12月日本家庭的信心下滑，通胀预期触及四年低点，突显出消除根深蒂固的通缩思维充满挑战。这一表现黯淡的数据暗示，对于日本央行的大规模货币刺激能否使该国通胀率升至2%的目标水平，日本家庭仍心存疑虑，这使日本央行仍面临采取更多措施来刺激增长的压力。日本央行周五公布的季度调查显示，12月时预期未来一年物价将上涨的家庭所占比例为64.7%Below9Of65.1%And create2012year12月以来最低水准。该比率已连续第六个季度下滑，尽管为了提高公众对未来物价上升的预期，日本央行三年多来推出了大规模货币刺激措施。周五公布的调查显示，在接受调查的家庭中，有77.6%预计通胀将在未来五年上升，低于9Monthly80.1%。衡量日本家庭对经济信心的另一项指数在12Month is negative24.8，9Month is negative23.1。该指数是认为经济形势已好转家庭的占比减去认为形势已恶化家庭的占比。负值表示更多家庭认为经济形势已恶化。

美元兑日圆周五从五周低点小幅走升，美元指数则持稳。中国出口数据弱于预期，并未明显影响市场。美元兑日圆周四挫至五周低位113.73，因美国候任总统特朗普在周三的记者会上未详细阐述财政刺激计划的内容，令人大感失望。由于美国因假日休市，交易员不太可能在长周末前新增头寸，不过今晚将公布的美国数据可能令美元出现本周的最后一次波动。路透调查预估12Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.7%，11Monthly growth0.1%。上周公布的美国就业报告显示，美国12月薪资增幅为2009year6月以来最大，点燃对特朗普料将推行的财政支出与减税政策可望提振美国通胀的预期。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The current resistance estimate is within116.20. The support position will be reviewed first50Balance moving average113.50Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
1month16day(one): Japan12Monthly Commercial Price Index‧Japan11Monthly machinery orders
1month17day(two): Japan11Monthly industrial production revision‧Capacity utilization index monthly rate
1month19day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
1month20day(five): Japan1Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

Related news
Japan as of12At the end of the monthforeign exchangeReserve decreases1.217Trillion US dollars
Central Bank Survey: Household Inflation Expectations Hit a Four Year Low

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 116.20 – 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 113.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - Political tension dealt a heavy blow to the pound

英镑则仍受着政治面打压，整周走势低迷，纵然脱欧尚未冲击到实体经济，但英镑则首当其冲下跌。英国首相讲话加剧“硬脱欧”的担忧，苏格兰独立威胁再现，重压下英镑一蹶不振，市场人士等待未来几日最高法院是否维持去年高等法院的裁决。

In terms of technical trends, it is estimated that the GBP/USD will continue to be weak in the short term, and upward resistance is expected to be50Balance moving average1.2430Last week, the exchange rate was restricted for two consecutive days50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.2590Level, last year12In the first half of the month, the exchange rate failed to break through this area and extended its decline for more than three weeks. Therefore, the exchange rate needs to break through this area in order to have a tendency to break free from weakness. As for the current trial support, it will be eye-catching compared to last year10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
1month17day(two): UK12monthCPI‧coreCPI‧RPI‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI&#8231PIInput price&#8231PIOutput price&#8231PI核心产出物价
1month18day(three): UK12Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧UK as of11According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧Average weekly salary income in the UK
1month19day(four): UK12monthRICSPrice difference
1month20day(five): UK12Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy

Related news
britain12monthBRC零售支出较上年同期上升1.7%
britain12monthBRC同店零售销售较上年同期上升1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2430 – 1.2500 – 1.2600*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

The trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has recently been in a narrow range of sideways trading, and the multi day low also coincides with50The moving average is like last Thursday and Friday. The relative strength index and random index have both fallen into oversold areas, indicating that the US dollar is likely to rebound in the short term. at present50The balance moving average is at1.01Level, considered as a reference for closer support, greater support will still focus on last year12At the beginning of the month, there was no permission to break through1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland12月经调节失业率为3.3%
Switzerland12月未经调节失业率为3.5%

Focus:
1month19day(four)Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0100 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

So far this year, the Australian dollar has performed the best among major currencies, with the Australian dollar rising nearly against the US dollar4%to0.75Above the US dollar. Related to12At the end of the month, it was a magnificent turn around compared to the Australian dollar12Moon once touched0.7160The seven month low of the US dollar was driven by bets from various sectors that President elect Trump's policies will drive up US inflation, thereby driving the dollar higher. Due to Trump's recent press conference not mentioning the details of stimulus policies, this type of transaction related to the US stimulus economy has cooled down. At the same time, economic data in Asia and Europe has significantly improved, injecting new vitality into the prices of Australia's main resource export products. The current iron ore price is close to a two-year high, thermal coal price is close to a three-year and a half high, and coking coal price reached its highest level in five years last month.

In terms of technical trends, the Australian dollar has experienced12After the sideways consolidation in the second half of the month, this year started with a high rise. If calculated based on the cumulative decline in the past two months, 50%The rebound level will be0.7470Expand to61.8%by0.7540. Estimating significant resistance in0.76and250Monthly average line0.7710Horizontal. The supporting materials below are0.74and25Balance moving average0.73Furthermore, attention will still be focused on last year5month24The low point of the day0.7145Horizontal.

Related news
Australia11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments0.2%
澳洲截至11月的三个月职位空缺增长2.1%, creating2011年中来高位

Focus:
1month17day(two): Australia12Monthly sales rate of new cars‧Australia11Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing
1month19day(four): Australia12Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7470 – 0.7540 – 0.7600 – 0.7710
support 0.7400 – 0.7300 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

Regarding the technical trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, let's take a look at the estimated upward resistance first200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal. The relative strength index and random index have both fallen from the overbought area, and the short-term exchange rate is expected to continue to decline. The support level is estimated to be0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.

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New Zealand12月大宗商品价格指数受乳品推动上涨0.7%，为连续第八个月上涨

Focus:
1month16day(one): New Zealand12Monthly Food Price Index
1month17day(two)：纽西兰第四季NZIERBusiness confidence index‧NZIERCapacity utilization rate
1month19day(four): New Zealand12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - The fourth quarter survey by the central bank shows an increase in corporate confidence

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30Pass, the next level is visible1.28. Estimated resistance at1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:        
1month18day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1month19day(four): Canada11Monthly manufacturing sales rate
1month20day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada11Monthly retail sales‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Related news
Canada12The annual rate of housing construction adjusted by the menstrual season has increased20.710000 households

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3090 – 1.3000 – 1.2800




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)