Crossing the Sea 2017year1month9day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month9day

Focus this week:
1month9day(Monday)
U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index

1month10day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit
United States12monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate

1month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

1month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
美国续请失业金人数人
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率

1month13day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget  
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
06：30 Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数‧Previous value46.6
08：30 Australia11Monthly Building Permit‧Previous value-12.6%
08：30 Australia11月民间住宅建筑许可‧Previous value-3.4%
15：00 Germany11Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.3%
15：00 Germany11月经季节调整出口月率‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.5%
15：00 Germany11月经季节调整进口月率‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value+1.3%
15：00 Germany11月经季节调整贸易平衡‧forecast214Yiyi surplus‧Previous value205Yiyi surplus
16：15 Switzerland11Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value-0.5%
16：30 britain12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧Previous value+0.2%
16：30 UK as of12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧Previous value+6.0%
17：00 Italy11Monthly unemployment rate‧Previous value11.6%
17：30 eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧forecast12.0‧Previous value10.0
18：00 eurozone11Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast9.8%‧Previous value9.8%
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value130.0

1month10day (Tuesday)
04：00 U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase186.0Billion‧Previous value increase160.2Billion


1month6day
LondongoldMorning order price:1178.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1175.85



XAU London Gold - 非农数据稳健，金银呈回吐压力

美元兑一篮子主要货币上周四一度跌至三周低位，人民币的强劲升势成为市场焦点，离岸人民币兑美元周四升至近两个月最高水平，并录得2010年被推出以来最大两日涨幅，这引发投资者对美元获利了结，令美元跌至12month14日来最低的101.30。美元指数急跌是资者降低或逆转对美元的押注所致，而民币上涨引发了雪崩效应，让年初的美元多头遭遇逼仓。美联储的会议纪录亦未能阻止美元跌势 ，周三晚发布的12月会议记录显示，几乎所有联储决策者都认为，特朗普政府的财政刺激政策前景仍不明朗，不过，一旦实施，则可能推升通胀，从而促使联储更加激进地上调借贷成本。至周五，美元显著反弹，受助于美国稳健的就业数据。虽然12月就业增长数据放缓，但10Month and11月数据被上修，同时，薪资增加，为美联储(FED)进一步升息奠定了基础。数据显示，12Monthly increase in non farm employment in the United States15.6Ten thousand,12Monthly average hourly wage increase0.4%。迎来本周，除了经济数据以外，又一焦点将是美国候任总统特朗普周三的新闻发布会，市场将瞩目于其对华政策以及有关美国经济政策的想法。

伦敦黄金上周四触及12month5The highest in recent days1184.90美元，因美元从本周稍早触及的14年高位进一步回落。尽管大环境并未发生改变，美国经济增长加速，但在过去数月急升后，加之未来经济政策调整的不确定性，令美元涨势受限。技术图表所见，10Tianhe25天平均线处于交迭，或预示着金价中线强势即将展开，但同时相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1166Next level can be seen in25Balance moving average1151and1131US dollars. Estimated resistance above50Balance moving average1191To the extent that1201。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD,50%Will reach1230Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month9 – 13Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1193 – 1209 – 1228 – 1248
Support bit:1168 – 1152 – 1129 – 1109

London Gold2017year1month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1162 – 1175
Resistance level:1186 – 1197 – 1209
Support bit:1151 – 1141 – 1129

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton


2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 测探50MA

伦敦白银方面，上周四触及近三周高位16.715美元。图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，并暂见出现回落迹象，故需留意潜在调整风险，尤其要特别留意上方位于16.80of50天平均线，去年12月份银价试高亦曾受制50天线，故若果一再未能此技术阻力，将进一步增加出现回调的机率。至于下一级阻力则会看至17.30To the extent that200Balance moving average17.80美元。另一方面，下方支持预料在16.20and15.80美元，较大支持预料为15.50USD.

London Silver2017year1month9 – 13Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.80 – 17.30 – 18.20 – 18.80
Support bit:16.30 – 15.50 – 14.60 – 14.00

London Silver2017year1month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.40 – 17.90 – 18.20
Support bit:15.50 – 15.10 – 14.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton



EUR euro - 美元止跌回稳，欧元续呈弱势   

欧元兑美元上周最高曾触及1.0621，随着意大利，法国和德国建筑业和零售业Purchasing Manager Index(PMI) 数据大多好于预期，支撑了欧元的升势。欧元区12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIset up2011year4月以来最高，综合PMI也升至五个月高位。然而，美国非农数据止住了美元跌势，促使欧元兑美元回落至1.0520水平。技术走势而言，预估下方支撑将回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0650，过去两周高位亦见受制50天线，故短期仍无法破位下，将增加欧元回吐的风险，预料较大支撑将为1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
Monday: Germany11Monthly industrial production rate‧出口月率‧进口月率‧trade balance‧Italy11Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone11Monthly unemployment rate
Tuesday: France11Monthly industrial production rate
Thursday: France12monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2016yearGDP‧Italy11Monthly industrial production‧eurozone11Monthly industrial production

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000*



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first115.50and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
Tuesday: Japan12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
Wednesday: Japan12monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan11Monthly simultaneous indicators‧Leading indicators
Thursday: Japan12月银行放款余额年率‧服务业景气判断指数‧Japan11Monthly current account
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 115.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - 弱势盘整

预估英镑兑美元短线仍会延续弱势，上试阻力在50Balance moving average1.2440and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2650，在去年12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Monday: UK12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
Tuesday: UK12monthBRC同店零售销售年率
Wednesday: UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2440 – 1.2500 – 1.2650*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

美元兑瑞郎周四低位1.0083，刚好止步于50Balance moving average, currently50The antenna is in1.0080，视为较近支持参考，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。

Focus:
Monday: Switzerland11Monthly retail sales annual rate
Tuesday: Switzerland12Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0080 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

技术走势而言，在经历了12月下旬的横盘整理后，今年开局高涨，目前正考验着100Balance moving average0.7320，倘若可明确突破，相信将见澳元继续走高。倘若以过去两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%and50%The rebound level will be0.74and0.7470Expand to61.8%by0.7540。下方支持仍会瞩目于去年5month24The low point of the day0.7145；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口。

Focus:
Monday: Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数‧Australia11Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
Tuesday: Australia11Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7470 – 0.7540
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

纽元兑美元触及三周高点0.7040，该货币对本周上涨1.1%。技术走势而言，支持预估为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Focus:
1month10day(two): New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 美元呈技术超卖

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30关口。预估阻力在1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Canada11Monthly building permit rate
Wednesday: Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
Thursday: Canada11Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3200 – 1.3090 – 1.3000





QR Code      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)