Crossing the Sea 2017year1month5day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month5day

Focus this week:
1month5day(Thursday)
U.S.A12monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A12monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A12monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value

1month6day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision



Important economic data released today:
17：00 意大利第三季公共预算赤字与GDPRatio‧Previous value0.20%
17：30 britain12monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧forecast54.7‧Previous value55.2
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.8%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value-0.4%
20：30 U.S.A12monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value26,936individual
21：15 U.S.A12monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.0Ten thousand‧Previous value increase21.6Ten thousand
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(12month31Day and Week)‧forecast26.0ten thousand people‧Previous value26.5ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States(12month31Day and Week)‧Previous value26,300ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(12month24Day and Week)‧Previous value210.2ten thousand people
21：30 Canada11月生产者物价月率‧Previous value+0.7%
21：30 Canada11月生产者物价年率‧Previous value+0.8%
21：30 Canada11月原材料价格月率‧Previous value+3.3%
21：30 Canada11月原材料价格年率‧Previous value+1.5%
22：45 U.S.A12monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.4
22：45 U.S.A12monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.7
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturingPMI‧forecast56.6‧Previous value57.2
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)商业活动分项指数‧forecast61.0‧Previous value61.7
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value58.2
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value57.0
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value56.3



News of the Week

American Supply Management Association(ISM)12The monthly manufacturing index is54.7, for2014year12Monthly highest
U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure increases0.9%to10Annual high
U.S.A12monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.3, for2015year3The highest in the past month
中国财新2016year12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to53.4, creating17Month high



1month4day
LondongoldMorning order price:1165.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1164.25



Today's Introduction

美联储会议记录指特朗普财政刺激或推升通胀，联储可能需加速升息

美联储周三发布的12月会议记录显示，几乎所有联储决策者都认为，特朗普政府的财政刺激政策，可能促进经济加速成长，很多与会委员预计，联储将会以更快的步伐升息。会议记录显示，候任总统特朗普作出的减税、基建支出和放松监管承诺，引发联储内部观点普遍发生转变。会议记录指出，“绝大多数与会委员都表示，其经济成长预估所面临的上档风险加大。”不过，会议记录显示，决策者可能暗示，如果通胀压力增加，联储将会更加积极地加息。



XAU London Gold - 美元走软助燃金价续涨

伦敦黄金周四触及四周高位，因美元从本周稍早触及的14年高点回落；技术性反弹也给予金价支撑。金价逼近1180Horizontal.The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF )--SPDR Gold Trust周三黄金持仓持平于813.87Tons.

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25天平均线正处于交迭，或预示着中线强势即将展开，但同时相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1162and25天平, Line1151美元，较大支撑见预料于1139US dollars. Estimated resistance above1175and1187美元，较大阻力为50Balance moving average1193To the extent that1198。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD.

London Gold2017year1month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1162 – 1175
Resistance level:1187 – 1198
Support bit:1150* – 1139

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 回升至三周高位

伦敦白银周四触及近三周高位16.70美元。图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，要留意潜在回吐风险。阻力预估在16.70To the next level17.10To the extent that200Balance moving average17.79美元。另一方面，下方支持则预料在16.30and16.00美元，较大支持预料为15.70USD.

London Silver2017year1month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 16.70
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.70
Support bit:16.00 – 15.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton



EUR euro - 美元兑人民币急剧下滑，拖累美元全线走低

法国极右翼民族阵线主席玛琳娜.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)周三称，法国应该退出欧元区并改用新货币，但可能需同步实施与欧元时代之前欧洲货币单位(ECU) 类似的框架。总统候选人勒庞称，她若当选总统，法国国家债务将以新的本国货币定价。在主要总统候选人中，唯有勒庞支持脱离欧元区。不过她迄今没有说过如何脱离。

eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.1%Almost11月涨幅的两倍，而且是逾三年来的最大涨幅。消费者物价是衡量经济状况的一个关键指针。法国、德国以及整个欧元区的综合采购经理人指数(PMI)也都高于路透访问的任何一个分析师的估值。这显示企业扩张情况好于预期。欧洲央行可能对最新数据表示欢迎，认为这证明其超宽松货币政策终于在推动通胀率升向约2%The target level.

美元兑一篮子货币周四进一步脱离14年高位，人民币兑美元连续两天快速上涨，触及近两个月高位。美元兑人民币意外大幅下挫对美元兑主要货币汇率产生多米诺骨牌效应，如美元兑日圆和欧元，因交易员也争相削减美元兑这些货币的仓位。离岸人民币兑美元涨逾1%to6.7845高位，中国当局提高中间价并进行市场干预，试图支撑人民币。尽管中国人民币兑美元中间价周四符合市场预期，但人民币空头回补操作在持续。财新/Markit周四联合公布，中国12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Refresh2015year7月以来最高，支撑了市场风险偏好。

美元指数周四低至101.71，即三周低点，而周二还曾触及14Annual high point103.82，当天公布的美国制造业调查报告表现强劲，对美元构成支撑。欧元兑美元上涨至1.0570水平上方，在周二触及14Annual low point1.0339后扩大反弹之势。投资者在美元自特朗普胜选以来上涨两个月后锁定获利，也是导致美元回落的原因。美元此前曾飙升，因特朗普计划减税并增加财政支出，还发表保护贸易的言论，这些均被认为会推升通胀率，并提振美债收益率。市场人士在他1month11日新闻发布会前了结对美元的押注。特朗普将于1month20日就任美国总统。

技术走势而言，下方支撑回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0680and1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
周四：意大利第三季公共预算赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone11monthPPI
Friday: Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧France11月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales

Related news
Germany12monthHICPInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%，触及逾三年最高水平
Germany12monthCPIInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month0.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month1.0%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
eurozone12月扣除食品和能源的消费者物价调和指数(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year0.9%
eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.1%
eurozone12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.7
eurozone12Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.4

法国总统候选人勒庞建议法国弃用欧元

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0680 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

美元兑日圆周三下滑，兑一篮子主要货币从14年高位回落，因在没有有关美国经济和升息时机新线索的情况下，投资人对增加美元押注持谨慎态度。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first115.50and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly overtime pay

Related news
Japan12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is52.4
Japan12Monthly service industryPMIAscend to52.3, for11个月以来高位

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 115.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - 弱势盘整

英镑兑美元周三录得今年首日上涨，重回1.23美元之上，强劲的制造业和消费者数据以及美元升势暂歇，一道将英镑从两个月低点拉回。退欧后英国公布的经济数据继续好于许多分析师的预期，周三公布的建筑业和消费者信贷数据均胜预期，带动英镑兑美元高见1.2306美元。周二公布的一项制造业调查显示，该行业增长速度为两年半最快。

预估英镑兑美元本周仍会延续弱势，上试阻力在50Balance moving average1.2420and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2650，在去年12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply‧britain12monthMatkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK12monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI

Related news
BRC: UK12月商店物价较上年同期下跌1.4%, for2015year8月以来最小跌幅
britain12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by56.1, for2014year6The highest since the beginning of the month
britain12Monthly Purchasing Managers Index for the Construction Industry(PMI)by54.2，升至九个月高点
britain11月抵押贷款批准件数升至67,505件并创3The highest in the past month
britain11Increase in monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount31.57亿英镑创8Lowest since month
britain11Monthly increase in consumer credit19.26亿英镑并创2005year3月以来最大月度增幅
britain11monthM4The supply of goods has increased compared to the previous month0.4%, increased compared to the same period last year6.4%
britain11月对非金融企业贷款减少7.67亿英镑并创3月来最大降幅

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2420 – 1.2500 – 1.2650*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - 呈技术超买

即市较近阻力可先留意1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。至于下方支持料为25Balance moving average1.02，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Switzerland12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: Switzerland12monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 –  1.0500
support 1.0200 –  1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - 受中国购汇新规提振小幅上涨

澳元周四跳涨至逾两周高位，因一轮获利了结抑制了美元走势，一系列乐观的全球经济数据支撑了大宗商品价格。财新/Markit周四联合公布，中国12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to17个月高点，呼应了欧美一系列调查的强劲表现。澳元也从近来澳洲主要大宗商品价格走强获得直接支撑，特别是铁矿石和煤价。澳洲央行本周公布的12月商品指数较前月上升9.3%，较上年同期上升将近40%。

在经历12月上旬的大幅滑落后，在此前澳元处于横盘状态，市场正瞩目于两个位置，一个为5month24The daily low reached0.7145，上周多日低位已见逼近此区，仅未有作进一步跌破；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口，倘若后市总见跌破此区，预料澳元将迎来更大幅度的下跌空间，延伸重要目标则为在去年一月中旬多日稳守着的0.68水平。阻力位则预估在0.7280and25Balance moving average0.7330For larger resistance0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Australia11Monthly products/Service trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7280 – 0.7330 –  0.7500**
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** –  0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - 失陷250MA延续弱势

技术走势而言，纽元兑美元上月失陷250天平均线，后市短期有着持续下试倾向，下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 延续走弱

美元兑美元方面，位置上，较近支持仍会先参考50Balance moving average1.34and1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090水平。预估阻力在1.36Next level can be seen in1.3750and1.38Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Canada11月生产者物价‧原材料价格
Friday: Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3600 – 1.3750 – 1.3800
support 1.3400 – 1.3200 – 1.3090*






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)