张祥说金：现货沥青投资中稳步盈利的方法

分析师张祥说金从事现货沥青投资相关领域工作数年，实战经验丰富，对于行情分析和操盘策略有独特见解。从业至今，熟知现货沥青投资行业的风险和利润管理。希望对广大投资者投资方向有所指引！不管你是做实仓，还是模拟，新手还是老手，套单、亏损、还是爆仓都请您调整好心态，尊重市场，跟上我的思路，让你在现货沥青投资市场重拾信心，一展风采。我们不求一天翻仓、更不求一夜暴富，只求稳健盈利、落袋为安，稳健给单，诚信做人！

  

  大家肯定是很想知道crude oil价格究竟有哪些因素在背后起作用了吧，下面张祥说金老师就为大家介绍一下影响原油价格变动的四因素。

  

  原油需求与原油价格成正比例关系；

  

  原油供给与原油价格成反比例关系；

  

  美元指数与原油价格成反比例关系；

  

  地缘冲突与原油价格成正比例关系。

  

  Factor 1: Crude oil demand

  

  原油的需求主要由世界经济发展水平及经济结构变化，替代能源的发展和节能技术的应用决定。

  

  1、全球石油消费与全球经济增长速度明显正相关。全球经济增长或超预期增长都会牵动国际原油市场价格出现上涨。而反过来，异常高的油价势必会阻碍世界经济的发展，全球经济增长速度放缓又会影响石油需求的增加。

  

  2The cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil prices. When the price of oil is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will ease the supply-demand imbalance in the global oil market. At present, countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will inevitably have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.

  

  目前原油需求方面的数据主要看美国等大型工业国的用油需求量，如工业产出月率、制造业PMIValue, etc.

  

  Factor 2: Crude oil supply

  

  影响供给的因素主要包括世界石油储量，石油供给结构以及石油生产成本。

  

  1Oil supply must be based on oil reserves. In the past few decades, the proven reserves of world oil resources have been continuously increasing. However, due to the non renewability of oil resources, the International Energy Agency predicts that world oil production will be2015The peak was reached before the year, and the global oil supply gradually entered a phase of decline.

  

  2、世界石油市场的供给特点也对石油供给具有重大影响。目前世界石油市场的供给方主要包括石油输出国组织（OPEC）And nonOPECcountry.OPECHaving the vast majority of the world's proven oil reserves, its production and pricing policies have a significant impact on global oil supply and prices. rather thanOPECThe state primarily exists as a price taker, adjusting production based on prices.

  

  3、石油生产成本也将对石油供给产生影响。石油作为一种不可再生能源，其生产成本会影响生产者跨时期的产量配置决策，进而影响到市场供给量，间接地引起石油价格波动。

  

  目前供给上的影响主要通过美国EIACrude oil inventoryAPIQuantify the impact of crude oil inventory and the production of some major international oil exporting countries on data.

  

  Factor Three: US Dollar Index

  

  原油价格历来都是和美元紧密挂钩的，其交割和计价都是用美元来结算，所以美元指数也会对原油价格产生影响。

  

  石油价格变动和美元指数变动成一定的反相关关系。比如美元若持续贬值，以美元标价的石油产品的实际收入下降，导致石油输出国组织就需要通过提升原油价格作为应对措施来保持其价值的相对稳定。同理，若美元升值，则油价会有所下调。

  

  Factor Four: Geopolitical Conflict

  

  在影响油价的因素中，地缘政治是不可忽视的重要因素之一。在地缘政治中，世界主要产油国的国内外发生革命或者暴乱，中东地区爆发战争，包括恐怖分子在世界范围内的暴动等等，都会对油价产生重大的影响。

  

  最快的脚步不是跨越，而是继续，最慢的步伐不是缓慢，而是徘徊，最险的道路不是陡坡，而是陷阱，最好的行情不是单边，而是止盈!Without a clear mind, even the fastest pace will go awry;Without careful steps, even the smoothest road will fall. Taking a step forward, even the longest road is easy, stagnant, and even the shortest road is difficult to reach.

  

   缘聚缘散，云卷云舒，不忘初心，方得始终★笔者 VX:zxsj85 Penguins:2509510269★

  

★文/Writing   Zhang Xiang said gold