Crossing the Sea 2016year12month15day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month15day

Focus this week:
12month15day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A11Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第三季流动帐平衡
U.S.A12New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
United States12monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A11Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI
U.S.A10Monthly overall capital flow‧外资购买美国公债

12month16day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts



Important economic data released today:        
17：00 eurozone12monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast53.8‧Previous value53.7
17：00 eurozone12monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast53.8‧Previous value53.8
17：00 eurozone12monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value53.9
17：30 britain11Monthly retail sales rate‧Previous value+1.9%
17：30 britain11Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value+7.4%
17：30 britain11月扣除能源的零售销售月率‧Previous value+2.0%
17：30 britain11月扣除能源的零售销售年率‧Previous value+7.6%
19：00 Germany12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value53.40
19：00 France12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value40.00
19：00 britain12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value48.90
19：00 Italy12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value35.50
20：00 britain12Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution
21：30 U.S.A11Menstrual seasonally adjustedCPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.4%
21：30 U.S.A11月未经季节调整的CPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.6%
21：30 U.S.A11The core of menstrual season adjustmentCPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
21：30 U.S.A11月未经季节调整的核CPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+2.1%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week‧Front value remains unchanged
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(12month10Day and Week)‧Previous value25.8ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States‧Previous value25.25ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(12month3Day and Week)‧Previous value200.5ten thousand people
21：30 美国第三季流动帐平衡‧Previous value1,199A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 U.S.A12New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month‧Predict positive3.00‧Front value positive1.50
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index‧Predict positive9.0‧Front value positive7.6
21：30 Canada10Monthly manufacturing sales rate‧Previous value+0.3%
23：00 United States12Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast63‧Previous value63

12month16day (Friday)
00：30 U.S.A11Monthly Cleveland Fed Consumer Price Index(CPI)‧Previous value+0.2%
05：00 U.S.A10Monthly overall capital flow‧Net outflow of previous value1,529Billion
05：00 U.S.A10Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds‧Net sales of previous value766Billion



News of the Week

U.S.A11The monthly budget deficit is1,370USD100mn
U.S.A2017The budget deficit for the fiscal year is1,810USD100mn
U.S.A11月出口物价较前月下降0.1%，进口物价较前月下降0.3%
U.S.A10月企业库存较上月减少0.2%
U.S.A11Monthly industrial production decreased compared to the previous month0.4%
U.S.A11月制造业产出较前月下降0.1%
U.S.A11The monthly capacity utilization rate is75.0%
U.S.A11Monthly final demandPPIUp from the previous month0.4%, up from the same period last year1.3%
U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIUp from the previous month0.4%, up from the same period last year1.6%
U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIUp from the previous month0.2%, up from the same period last year1.8%
U.S.A11Monthly deduction of retail sales of automobiles increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.1%



12month14day
LondongoldMorning order price:1160.95
London gold afternoon fixing price:1162.25



Today's Introduction

美联储升息25个基点，预计明年升三次

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三升息25个基点，且暗示明年将加快升息步伐，预计升息三次，以适应新政府的政策。即将上任的特朗普政府承诺，将通过减税、增加基建支出和放松监管等举措来提振成长。美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25Basis points, to0.50-0.75%。美国经济数据整体表现强劲，这次升息完全在市场预料之中。在美联储委员一致作出的政策决定公布后，美国公债收益率上涨，美元指数走强。美股小跌，但在美联储主席耶伦举行记者会期间抛售加速，标普500指数收盘创10month11日来最大单日百分比跌幅。耶伦指出，特朗普当选美国总统后，美联储进行了相应的微调，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的“部分与会委员”开始调整财政政策假设。

香港上调基本利率25Basis points

香港金融管理局周四宣布，将贴现窗基本利率上调25Bps to1%，跟随美联储稍早宣布加息25基点，为一年来首次加息。金管局总裁陈德霖表示，美元利率正常化步伐仍存在颇大不确定性，虽然港美息差扩阔有可能导致港元资金流走，但估计港元利率上升步伐将会渐进。



XAU London Gold - 金价维持探低

伦敦黄金周四跌至逾10个月最低，因为在Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)实施今年来首次升息并暗示2017年可能升息三次后 ，美元飙升至14年最高。金价触及1134.70USD, for2month3日以来最低水平。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金(ETF)SPDR Gold Trust黄金持仓量自11月以来已减少约10%，周三减少0.80%to849.44吨。美元指数之前一度触及102.620, for2003year1月以来高点。美联储周三升息25个基点，且暗示明年将加快升息步伐，因即将上任的特朗普政府承诺，将通过减税、增加基建支出和放松监管等举措来提振成长。部分因预期经济前景会发生改变，美联储决策者对2017年升息次数的预估中值，从9月的升息两次，每次25个基点，上调至升息三次。

技术图表所见，金价近月走势持续受压于10Balance moving average, currently10The balance moving average is at1168水平，可作为重要阻力参考，下一级关键于1174and1200美元，即市较近阻力料在1149and1185美元。预料金价仍会继续探低趋势，下方支持预估在1131and1121美元，较大支撑见预料于1109and1096USD.

London Gold12month15day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1131 – 1149
Resistance level:1158 – 1174 – 1200
Support bit:1121 – 1109 – 1096

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton
12month2Day - 870.22ton
12month5Day - 869.90ton
12month6Day - 869.90ton
12month7Day - 863.67ton
12month8Day - 860.71ton
12month9Day - 857.45ton
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
1Monthly goldoptionDue date:12month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价或再探16level

伦敦白银方面，图表所见，银价上月在16美元关口上方持稳，11month23Daily and25日的低位均触及16.14美元。较近阻力预估在17.00and200Balance moving average17.74美元，后者在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考，进一步看至18美元。另一方面，下方支持则预估在16.30and15.80美元，较大支持预料为15.20USD.

London Silver12month15day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.50 – 18.00
Support bit:15.80 – 15.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton
11month30Day - 10766.50ton
12month1Day - 10766.50ton
12month2Day - 10761.66ton
12month5Day - 10761.66ton
12month6Day - 10761.66ton
12month7Day - 10761.66ton
12month8Day - 10664.32ton
12month9Day - 10664.32ton
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton



EUR euro - 美联储提高2017年升息次数预期，提振美元走势

美元指数周四升至14年高点附近，在Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)improve2017年预计升息次数后获得极大提振 ，从而为特朗普胜选后持续一个月的涨势再度提供动能。美联储周三升息25个基点，这一行动符合金融市场的广泛预期。但美联储还暗示明年将加快升息步伐，从9月会议上暗示的2017年升息两次提高到升息三次，这让投资者感到些许意外。此前美国总统当选人特朗普承诺透过减税、支出与放宽监管规定等手段提振经济成长。美元指数延续隔夜涨势，一度触及102.620, creating2003year1月以来高位。欧元兑美元则下滑至1.0468, for21Month low point.

As seen in the technical chart,1.05出现失守，将会加剧欧元弱势发展；延伸下一级支持为去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380and1.0250水平。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.08，十月份低位1.0848将为下一依据，同时亦是50天平均线所在位置。

Focus:
Thursday: France12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧eurozone12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧comprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Germany11Monthly wholesale price index‧France12Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Italy10Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance

Related news
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较前月持平
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较上年同期上升0.7%
Germany11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较前月上升0.1%
Germany11monthCPIThe final value is an increase compared to the same period last year0.8%，创两年最大同比升幅
Germany11月批发物价较前月上涨0.1%, up from the same period last year0.8%
France11month HICPThe final value remained unchanged compared to the previous month and increased compared to the same period last year0.7%

意大利总理真蒂洛尼组建新政府，但中右翼小党威胁退出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0800 – 1.0848
support 1.0456 – 1.0380 – 1.0250



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

周四公布的日本央行调查报告显示，日本企业的长期通胀预期在12月小升，表明日圆疲弱和消费者支出增强可望拉抬物价。上日日本央行甫公布“短观”大型制造业信心调查。该调查显示，由于海内外需求改善，信心升至一年高位。央行调查显示，日本企业预计未来一年的消费者物价指数(CPI)平均料上升0.7%，高于三个月前预估的上升0.6%。接受日本央行访查的企业预计，未来三年消费者物价年增率为1.0%，与三个月前预估相同。企业还预计，未来五年消费者物价年增率将达到1.1%, higher than9Monthly estimated1.0%涨幅。据熟悉日本央行思路的四名消息人士透露，日本央行倾向于在12month20日的会议上调经济预估 ，因央行官员越来越相信，全球贸易已经走出低谷。他们还看到民间消费有初步复苏迹象，服务业景气触及近三年高位。民间消费多年来一直是日本经济的一个薄弱点。

美联储周三升息25个基点，这一行动符合金融市场的广泛预期。但美联储还暗示明年将加快升息步伐，从9月会议上暗示的2017年升息两次提高到升息三次，这让投资者感到些许意外。美国10年期公债收益率在美联储会后涨至逾两年高位，两年期美债收益率也创下七年高点。自11月初以来，美国公债收益率一直是美元涨势的主要推动力，因市场预期特朗普的新政府将实施大规模财政支出政策来推高通胀。美元兑日圆周四稍早创10Month high117.86。技术图表所见，较近支撑先看117and10Balance moving average115水平。至于向上延伸阻力将指向118and120Level.

Focus:
Friday: Japan12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
Japan12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value increased to51.9, for1The highest since the beginning of the month

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 115.30 – 116.00 – 118.00
support 114.30 – 112.00 – 110.00 – 109.60



GBP pound - 处整理走势

英镑兑美元走势，在上周连日下跌后，本周早段重新攀升，但预料向上可能仍是会受制于100天平均线，上周英镑升幅正是受限此技术指标，目前100The balance moving average is located at1.2770，倘若破位，进一步攀升目标料为1.2890and1.30水平。至于向下支撑则瞩目于起延自10月下旬的上升趋向线，至今位于1.2480，较大支持位预估在1.2380and1.23Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧平均每周薪资所得年率‧UK as of10According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
Thursday: UK11Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy‧britain12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Central bank interest rate determination‧Scale of quantitative easing‧货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)
Friday: UK12monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2800 – 1.3000
support 1.2500 – 1.2380 – 1.2300



CHF Swiss franc - 政府称经济前景仍正面

瑞士政府周四维持该国今明两年经济增速预估不变 ，同时不再预计明年能重新出现物价上涨。瑞士联邦经济总局在最新发布的季度经济预估中称，预计今年瑞士经济增长1.5%, and9月预估一致。2017Annual economic growth1.8%，亦与9月预估相同。瑞士政府首次对2018年经济增长做出预估，预计增幅为1.9%。今年通胀率预计为负0.4%，2017年预计为零，9月预估分别为负0.4%and0.3%。2018年物价料上涨0.2%。

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1month29Daily high1.0257Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Related news
瑞士联邦经济总局：瑞士2017年经济增速料为1.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0257 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 再度考验0.75Gateway

Australia11月就业数据意外强劲，因经过十分艰难的一年后，全职就业人口实现反弹。这一利好数据缓解了近期发布的第三季疲弱经济增长数据带来的阴霾。澳洲统计局周四发布的数据显示，11Monthly increase in employment population3.91万人，远远超过预估的增加210000 people.10月的数据被上修至增加1.52万人。失业率从三年低位5.6%Ascend to5.7%，但这只是因为有更多人在找工作。关键是全职就业人口增加了3.93万人，从而使9月以来的全职就业人口总共增加了8万人之多，几乎弥补了1月以来的所有降幅。

周四澳元兑美元下跌，之前美国联邦储备理事会(FED)宣布一年来的首次升息；美联储暗示将以比投资者之前预期更快的速度收紧政策。澳元之后寻获支撑，之前澳洲公布了好于预期的就业报告，缓解了近期的第三季经济增长疲弱阴霾。澳洲统计局周四发布的数据显示，11Monthly increase in employment population3.91万人，远远超过预估的增加2万人。利率期货市场对澳洲央行降息概率的预估略有回落，暗示到2017年年中降息一次的概率为10%，就业报告公布前为14%。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数开始自超买区域出现回落，同时，澳元兑美元走势近两周亦多番受制于0.75关口，故若本周依然没可出现突破，澳元兑美元或将面临回落风险。较近阻力预料为100Balance moving average0.7575Horizontal, visible to the next level0.7740。支持位则会下望0.7380and0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145。

Related news
Australia11Monthly increase in employment population3.91ten thousand people
Australia11月经季节调整后失业率为5.7%

Focus:
Friday: Australia12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500** – 0.7575 – 0.7740
support 0.7380 – 0.7290 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - test250MA

纽元兑美元走势方面，纽元前期浮沉在0.70区间上，在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹，但基于美元强势，纽元升幅受限。估计纽元在250Balance moving average position0.6965将会备受考验，倘若下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250天平均线，技术上有机会组成双底型态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看100Balance moving average0.72and0.7265水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Related news
Friday: New Zealand11月海外投资者持有新西兰公债比例

Focus:
纽西兰第三季制造业销售量较前季增长2.1%，乳品和肉类销量增1.6%
New Zealand11月经季调制造业PMI连跌两个月，至13个月低54.4

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7200 – 0.7265 – 0.7400
support 0.7000 – 0.6965 – 0.6800 – 0.6676



CAD Cad - 1.30关口再受考验

过去两周美元兑加元均处于下行走势，主要是受到油价大涨所牵动，汇价目前来到1.31水平，预计将进一步挑战1.30Pass, at10month19日，汇价已曾触近1.30关口，但在其时未有跌破的情况下，随后大幅度回升，因此，目前再临此区关口，美元可能仍会获一度程度的技术支撑。此外，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已横盘于超卖区域多时，故需慎防汇价随时超卖反弹。位置上，较近支持先参考1.30and1.2820；关键则指向1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区。预估阻力在1.3360Next level can be seen in1.35and1.36Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Canada12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada10Monthly manufacturing sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3360 – 1.3500 – 1.3600
support 1.3000* – 1.2820 – 1.2650*





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)