Crossing the Sea 2016year12month12day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month12day

Focus this week:
12month13day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11Monthly federal budget
United States11monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11Monthly import prices‧出口物价月率

12month14day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A11Monthly industrial production‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing output rate

12month15day(Thursday)
U.S.A12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
美国联邦基金利率目标   
U.S.A11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A11Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第三季流动帐平衡
U.S.A12New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
United States12monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A11Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI
U.S.A10Monthly overall capital flow‧外资购买美国公债

12month16day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts



Important economic data released today:        
07：50 Japan10Monthly mechanical order rate‧Previous value-3.3%
07：50 Japan10Annual rate of monthly mechanical orders‧Previous value+4.3%

12month13day (Tuesday)
04：00 U.S.A11Monthly federal budget‧Previous value440A deficit of one billion yuan



12month9day
LondongoldMorning order price:1168.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1163.60



Today's Introduction

OPECAnd nonOPEC产油国达成2001年以来首次全球性减产协议

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)成员国与非OPEC产油国周六达成2001年以来首次的协议，将协同减产以缓解全球供应过剩。在此前的两年多里，低油价让许多国家财政入不敷出，并加深了一些国家的动荡局面。克服了将近一年来OPEC内部的争吵以及对非OPCE产油国俄罗斯减产意愿的怀疑，这份得来不易的协议终于签订，现在市场的目光将转向协议的遵守情况。OPEC素来有在产量配额上做手脚的不良纪录。这次尼日利亚和利比亚两国因内部动乱导致石油生产受影响，因而被排除在减产协议外，这就进一步加大了沙特阿拉伯的压力，该国需要承担减产计划中的绝大份额。俄罗斯在15年前未能兑现与OEPC同步减产的承诺，但这一次的减产估计会是实打实的。不过分析师怀疑其它许多非OPEC产油国会不会想拿产量的自然下降充作自己对减产协议的贡献。上周OPECAgree to proceed from1month1日开始减产12010000 barrels/日，头号产油国沙特减产幅度高达48.610000 barrels/日。非OPEC产油国周六同意减产55.810000 barrels/Day, slightly lower than6010000 barrels/日的最初目标，但仍为非OPEC国家历来为减产作出的最大贡献。其中俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)表示，该国将减产3010000 barrels/日。他补充说，减产将会逐步实施，最晚明年3月底，俄罗斯的产量将会比2016year10月时达到的迄今最高纪录1,124.710000 barrels/日，减少2010000 barrels/日。他表示，六个月后俄罗斯的产量会降至1,094.710000 barrels/日。除俄罗斯外，出席周六谈判、或对会议发表讲话或作出承诺的非OPEC产油国有：阿塞拜疆、巴林、玻利维亚、文莱、赤道几内亚、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、墨西哥、阿曼、苏丹以及南苏丹。出席本次会议的OPECAnd nonOPEC国家共占全球产量的55%；共同减产承诺约为18010000 barrels/日，相当于全球石油供应量的2%about.  墨西哥和阿塞拜疆等许多非OPEC国家本身就面临石油产量的自然下降，一些分析师质疑这些降幅应不应该被算作减产。阿曼表示将减产4.510000 barrels/日，哈萨克斯坦称明年力争减产210000 barrels/Day.

根据路透计算和美国商品futuresTrading Committee(CFTC)周五公布的数据，汇市投机客连续第三周增持美元凈多仓，持仓规模增至1月初以来最高。截至12month6日当周，美元凈多仓从前一周的248.2亿增至281.4亿美元。由于预期在特朗普执政下通胀升高且基建支出扩大，因此美元凈多仓持续增加并不出人意外。包括11月非农就业报告在内的美国经济数据更为乐观，外界普遍预期美联储下周料将升息。这样的预期在过去七周支撑美元，今年迄今美元上涨了3%。关注焦点如今转向美联储在周三会议结束时可能暗示升息几次。另外，投机客的日圆凈空口升至33,937口，为去年12月以来最高。投机客在数月作多日圆后，于上周转为凈空仓。欧元凈空仓降至114,556Mouth, for10月中以来最低。欧元兑美元仍然疲弱，周四欧洲央行决定将量化宽松政策延长九个月，欧元随后急跌。



XAU London Gold - 关注联储议息，金价料续承压

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust称，周五其黄金持仓量下降0.38%to857.45吨，周四为860.71吨。以盎司计算，黄金持仓量从27,672,565.61盎司降至27,567,719.68ounce.

美国劳工部上周公布的数据显示，美国12month3The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits after quarterly adjustments for the current week is25.8万人，为连续92Zhou is in30万人门坎以下，预估为25.810000 people, the former value is26.8万人。美国当周初请人数从上周的5个月高位下滑，为连续92Zhou is in30万人门坎以下，同时亦为1970年以来最长连续周期，预计初请人数今年将持续波动，但仍与劳动力市场趋紧的趋势相符；而劳动力市场良好态势将进一步促进经济可持续的动能。接下来市场的注意力会放在美联储货币政策会议上，该会议将在本周二及周三召开，市场普遍预期美联储在此次会议将会再度提高利率 。本周将召开央行利率会议的国家还有英国、瑞士。数据方面，将迎来欧美英法德的通胀资料，中国将发布11月国民经济运行情况。经济数据和央行政策将为汇市未来走势提供更多指引。

伦敦黄金周五滑落，并录得连续第五周周线跌幅，受美元走强以及美国联邦储备理事会(FED)即将升息的预期拖累。芝加哥商业交易所（CME)ofFedWatch显示，利率期货走势暗示，交易员认为美联储下周会议上升息的机率为95%。

技术图表所见，在前一周早段多番受制1200美元关口后，金价上周又见维持走低；同时，亦见10天平均线压制着金价，目前10The balance moving average is at1175水平，可作为较近阻力参考，下一级关键瞩目于1183and1193美元，较大阻力料在1200美元关口。反之，倘若金价仍是受制于1200美元关口，则预料金价仍会继续探低趋势，下方支持预估在1150and1140美元，较大支撑见预料于1128USD.

London Gold12month12day – 12month16Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1166 – 1174 – 1197 – 1213
Support bit:1141 – 1132 – 1117 – 1100

London Gold12month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1149 – 1166
Resistance level:1178 – 1194 – 1206
Support bit:1143 – 1132 – 1127

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton
12month2Day - 870.22ton
12month5Day - 869.90ton
12month6Day - 869.90ton
12month7Day - 863.67ton
12month8Day - 860.71ton
12month9Day - 857.45ton


12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month28day
1Monthly goldoptionDue date:12month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈筑底形态

伦敦白银方面，在金价接连下挫之际，银价表现明显较为稳健，尤其过去两周见温和回升，上周三曾高见17.24美元，至周五稍见回落，尾盘见于16.84水平。图表所见，银价暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，11month23Daily and25日的低位均触及16.14美元。较近阻力预估在200Balance moving average17.72美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考，进一步看至18.30and18.88. On the other hand, the following support estimates that16.50and16.20美元，较大支持预料为15.30USD.

London Silver12month12day – 12month16Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.71 – 18.50 – 18.88 – 19.91
Support bit:16.00 – 15.20 – 14.90 – 14.00

London Silver12month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.40
Support bit:16.10 – 15.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton
11month30Day - 10766.50ton
12month1Day - 10766.50ton
12month2Day - 10761.66ton
12month5Day - 10761.66ton
12month6Day - 10761.66ton
12month7Day - 10761.66ton
12month8Day - 10664.32ton
12month9Day - 10664.32ton



EUR euro - 联储议息在即，欧元维持弱势

美国联邦储备理事会政策会议即将召开，周三会议上美联储料将作出一年来首次升息的决定，市场接近百分百地消化了这样的预期，相信联储将把指针利率目标区间上调25个基点。数据方面，周四主要经济体的Purchasing Manager Index(PMI) 初值以及美国的各种企业信心调查将会提供线索，揭示临近年底时的信心情况。美国的零售销售数据将于周三公布，投资者将特别留意，是否有迹象说明减税和刺激的前景已经在推升信心。另外，投资者还将把目光集中到美国当选总统特朗普上月计划的12month15日记者会上，探究他是否对经济政策计划有所暗示。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已闯进了超过80水准的严重超买区域，有机会经过近日的整理走势后，或许又重启跌势。1.05关口在周一勉力守稳，但若果1.05这个半百关口于后市还是出现失守，将会加剧欧元弱势发展。预估较近阻力先参考1.08及十月份低位1.0848，50Balance moving average1.0905则为另一依据。反之，倘若失守1.05，延伸下一级支持为去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380and1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
12month13day(two): Germany11monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧Italy10Monthly industrial production‧欧元区第三季就业人口‧Germany12monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index
12month14day(three): France11monthHICPFinal value‧Italy11monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly industrial production
12month15day(four): France12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧eurozone12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧comprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
12month16day(five): Germany11Monthly wholesale price index‧France12Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Italy10Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance

Related news
Germany10Monthly industrial orders increased compared to the previous month4.9%，创逾两年来最大升幅
Germany10Monthly industrial production has increased compared to the previous month0.3%
France10月经季调贸易逆差拓宽至52.02100 million euros
France10Monthly industrial production has declined compared to the previous month0.2%，制造业产出下滑0.6%
Germany10月经季节调整出口较前月增加0.5%
Germany10月经季节调整贸易顺差为205100 million euros
Germany10月经季节调整进口较前月增加1.3%

意大利总理伦齐提交辞呈，总统将与各政党讨论后续行动
穆迪确认意大利BAA2发行人评级，展望下调至负面

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0800 – 1.0848 – 1.0905
support 1.0500* – 1.0456 – 1.0380 – 1.0250



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

技术图表所见，预料美元兑日圆上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近支撑见于110.80Horizontal.

Focus:
12month12day(one): Japan10Monthly machinery orders
12month14day(three)：日本央行第四季制造业景气判断指数‧Non manufacturing business sentiment assessment index‧商业资本支出预估‧Japan10Monthly industrial production revision‧Capacity utilization index monthly rate
12month15day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
12month16day(five): Japan12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBPpound - 首相梅翠珊的退欧时间表获得议会支持  

英镑兑美元走势，进一步攀升目标料为1.28and1.30水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.25，较大支持位预估在1.2380and1.23Horizontal.

Focus:
12month13day(two): UK11monthCPIMonthly rate‧coreCPI‧RPIMonthly rate‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI&#8231PIInput price&#8231PIOutput price&#8231PI核心产出物价
12month14day(three): UK11Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧平均每周薪资所得年率‧UK as of10According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
12month15day(four): UK11Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy‧britain12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Central bank interest rate determination‧Scale of quantitative easing‧货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)
12month16day(five): UK12monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2800 – 1.3000
support 1.2500 – 1.2380 – 1.2300



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
12month14day(three)Switzerland11Monthly Producer/Import prices‧Switzerland12monthZEWInvestor confidence index
12month15day(four)：瑞士第四季利率目标区间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 再度考验0.75Gateway

澳元兑美元方面，技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数开始自超买区域出现回落，同时，澳元兑美元上周连续三日受制于0.75关口，连同本周一亦恰好亦是止步于此区，故若本周依然没可出现突破，澳元亦将面临回落风险。较近阻力预料为100Balance moving average0.7575水平，下一级看至0.7740。支持位则会下望0.7380and0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145。

Focus:
Tuesday: Australia11monthNABBusiness Status Index‧NABBusiness confidence index‧Australian Q3 House Price Index
Wednesday: Australia11Monthly sales rate of new cars
Thursday: Australia11Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate
Friday: Australia12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500** – 0.7575 – 0.7740
support 0.7380 – 0.7290 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - test250MA

纽元兑美元走势方面，纽元前期浮沉在0.70区间上，在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹，但基于美元强势，纽元升幅受限。估计纽元在250Balance moving average position0.6965将会备受考验，倘若下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250天平均线，技术上有机会组成双底型态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看100Balance moving average0.72and0.7265水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Related news
12month13day(two)：纽西兰第三季制造业销售季率
12month15day(four): New Zealand11月制造业表现指数
12month16day(five): New Zealand11月海外投资者持有新西兰公债比例

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7200 – 0.7265 – 0.7400
support 0.7000 – 0.6965 – 0.6800 – 0.6676



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
Thursday: Canada12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada10Monthly manufacturing sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)