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Before Trump was elected as the President of the United States, there were two candidates in the election. Everyone said, one was a scammer and the other was a madman, but it was a pain for the American people. I don't know who to choose?
Both of them are tough on China. The scammer Hillary is the American "returning to Asia", and the madman Trump is "raping the United States in trade". In the future, they will impose heavy taxes on Chinese products.
So, regardless of who is the president now, who is elected in favor of China?
Hillary Clinton: a sharp critic and hawker of China; Are you also a fan of Chinese leaders?
From the First Lady to the Senator, and then to the Secretary of State, Chinese diplomats and Hillary have been dealing with each other for many years and are quite familiar with their positions. In their eyes, Hillary is very tough, and even when seeking diplomatic reconciliation and compromise, she is still a sharp critic of China. She is at the forefront of the South China Sea dispute, trade, and human rights issues.
2010In, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raised the South China Sea issue to the top of the regional and US security agenda,To Beijing's great anger, it opened the prelude to US intervention in the South China Sea issue.
At the ASEAN Regional Forum held in Hanoi that year, Hillary Clinton made a statement about her involvement in the South China Sea dispute, saying that her public involvement in the South China Sea is in line with the United States"National interests", for"Regional security is crucial"Encourage small Asian partner countries to confront China.
China's diplomacy and military are also closely monitoring the US presidential election."Clinton's attitude towards China is fierce"。"Clinton will be a tricky partner"When it comes to the US election, several senior diplomats and military officials have expressed this to Western media.
However, some people also defended her and she did some things that were friendly to China, but many people were unaware of it.
For example, as the Secretary of State at the time, she vigorously promoted the establishment of the US Pavilion at the Shanghai World Expo, repeatedly inquired and showed great concern. This tells us that she is not always hostile towards China.
On the South China Sea and East China Sea issues, her attitude is stronger than Obama's, but this does not mean that she advocates for conflicts with China. She also doesn't want direct conflict.
Trump: Unpredictable madman, profit oriented businessman?
Hillary's opponent Trump also made us angry. When talking about the US China trade deficit, Trump once said,"We cannot allow China to continue raping our country."
Trump internationally'Everyone curses'Seems to dare to take it seriously, even'Those who dare to use nuclear weapons'Internationally, there are people constantly comparing him to'Mussolini'perhaps'Hitler'。
The rise of a racist in American politics has also brought unease to the world. American politics are usually predictable, but Trump represents'Various possibilities'and'Unpredictability'。
However, despite Trump's many"Unpredictability"However, due to Hillary's stronger stance, she seems to be less favored in China. Trump, let people see some opportunities.
Trump is a businessman who seems to be more able to negotiate with him. Trump is a real estate tycoon who seems to lean more towards calculating the economy in his campaign.
On how to handle relations with China, Trump also pays considerable attention to the economic aspect, while geopolitical and military issues should serve the economy more.
On human rights issues, Trump's criticism of China is not as strong. On certain sensitive historical issues, Trump even expressed his understanding of the Chinese government. This is still a relatively rare pragmatic attitude among Western politicians.
▋"Two harms"Which is the lesser of relative power?
In terms of their attitude towards China, neither candidate seems to be considered friendly. During the election, Trump repeatedly criticized China on trade issues, stating that"China uses the United States as a piggy bank","Stealing American Jobs"Or even say that the United States is being raped by China......
Compared to Trump, Hillary is a veteran of diplomacy and also the United States'Asia Pacific Rebalance'One of the main drivers of policy. In her opinion, being tough with the outside world may better highlight the American concept of'leadership'。 If Hillary is elected, she will continue to be tough.
Trump, on the other hand, holds a conservative attitude towards the world situation and hopes that the United States can step back from hot spots in the world and focus on improving its own economy and addressing immigration issues. In this way, it gives countries such as China and Russia a geographical gap and an international space.
If Trump is elected, the intensity of the South China Sea and East China Sea disputes may be greatly alleviated, and the international situation around China will also tend towards peace and development.
Trump's advisor, University of California economist Navarro(Peter Navarro)Once boasted that the difference between the Trump administration and the current US or Hillary administration lies in respect. Mr. Trump respects the leaders of China and Russia, and the leaders of Russia and China will also respect Mr. Trump and the United States.
However, from an economic perspective, Trump's conservative economic policy may launch a trade war, tariff war, increase the cost of exporting Chinese products to the United States, and increase barriers to the US market. As China is a major international trading country, international trade is the primary engine for China's economy. If the US market is hindered, it will also have great harm to the Chinese economy.
The famous American think tank, the Brookings Institution, believes that who is elected is more advantageous to China, depending on what aspects you are concerned about?
If you think that the relationship between China and the United States is a zero sum game, that is to say, if the United States has major problems, it is good for China. Then, after Trump's election, the foreign relations and domestic politics of the United States are more likely to undergo earth shattering changes. The United States withdraws from hot spots in the world political landscape, and China's international space will be greatly improved.
However, if you think that the relationship between the two countries is very complex, with me and you in each other, it is not a zero sum game. That is to say, if the United States has a major problem, China will also suffer. Therefore, maintaining the status quo ante, stable development, and Hillary Clinton's election are more advantageous for China."
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang once3Yue stated that the US election"It's lively and eye-catching, but no matter who gets the flowers and who becomes the president in the end, I believe the overall trend of the development of China US relations will not change."
Premier Li's statement means that China and the United States need each other and must cooperate closely.
Because the relationship between China and the United States is the most important bilateral relationship in the world, China needs the United States, and vice versa.
At present, the Chinese government, as well as the Chinese people, may be most concerned about security issues in the surrounding regions, such as the South China Sea and East China Sea issues. If Trump is elected, it may withdraw American influence from Asia, which will lead to short-term tension and chaos in US Japan relations, which is good for China.
However, it should be noted that ultimately, the interest groups in the United States will make policy adjustments and use various means to force Trump to change his foreign policy. This ambiguous and constantly changing situation, once it occurs, may make the situation in Asia more unstable, but instead may cause a stronger rebound, ultimately exacerbating the United States' investment in Asia.
No matter who is elected, we cannot take it lightly. No pie will fall from the sky. In the process of the rise of a great power, we cannot rely on the active concessions of previous world hegemons, but must forge ahead and strengthen ourselves, accelerate development, and steadily develop. Only in this way can we have the confidence to prioritize ourselves, no matter who becomes the President of the United States.
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