Crossing the Sea 2016year11month28day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month28day

Focus this week:

11month28day(Monday)
U.S.A11Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month

11month29day(Tuesday)
美国第三季消费者支出修订
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
U.S.A9monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数月率
U.S.A9Monthly housing price index
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A11月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数

11month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly personal income‧支出月率
U.S.A10monthPCEprice index
U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

12month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMManufacturing Index

12month2day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A11monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy11月制造业商业信心指数‧Previous value103.0
17：00 eurozone10monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧forecast+5.0%‧Previous value+5.0%
17：00 eurozone10monthM3对家庭贷款‧Previous value+1.8%
17：00 eurozone10monthM3对非金融行业贷款‧Previous value+1.9%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Previous value0.55
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast106.6‧Previous value106.3
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧Predict negative0.4‧Negative front value0.6
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧Previous value12.0
18：00 eurozone11Final value of monthly consumer confidence index‧forecast-6.1‧Negative front value8.0
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value4.3
18：00 eurozone11月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value3.2
23：30 U.S.A11Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month‧Negative front value1.5



11month25day
LondongoldMorning order price:1187.50
London gold afternoon fixing price:1187.70



XAU London Gold - 金价超卖反弹，料受制千二关口

伦敦黄金上周五一度刷新九个半月低点1171level ，市场预期美国联邦储备理事会(FED)即将升息。金价本月以来下跌逾8%, and11month9日美国选后触及的高点相比，已下跌逾160美元，受创于强势美元及美债收益率涨势。美元指数周四创十三年半新高102.05，在清淡的交投下，美元大涨，其它货币对美元纷纷下跌，当中，印度卢比、土耳其里拉兑美元均创历史新低。美元指数在录得20个月最大两周升幅后 ，上周初段稍事喘息。但随着一系列强劲经济数据公布，以及美联储会议记录也直指即将加息，美元又再度飙升，兑日圆升至八个月高点，

自特朗普赢得美国大选以来，美元一路上攻，跟随美债收益率急升的走势。市场人士大量押注特朗普政府将增加财政支出，从而推升通胀与利率。上周公布的强劲数据显示，美国经济处于稳步成长的正轨，巩固了对美联储在12月和明年加息的预期。美联储公布的11月货币政策会议记录也直指即将加息 。根据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)ofFedWatch，市场现预计美联储12月升息机率接近100%。部分投资人预期，若经济动能持续，2017年还可能进一步升息。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已在超卖区域徘徊两周时间，或见短期有反扑倾向，向上阻力料为1195and1204美元，较大阻力预计在1234美元，为近期160美元跌幅的38.2%反弹水平。在中期走势而言，若仍是受制于1200美元关口，则金价仍会继续探低趋势。支持预估在1172USD, for2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率，上周五金价低位正是碰及此区后出现大幅反弹，较大支撑见预料于1164and1157USD.

London Gold11month28day – 12month2Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1190 – 1209 – 1240 – 1280
Support bit:1157 – 1139 – 1114 – 1088

London Gold11month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1171 – 1195
Resistance level:1205 – 1227 – 1240
Support bit:1160 – 1149 – 1138

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，银价过去两周亦是步步探低，暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，上周三及周五的低位均触及16.14美元。技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在16.80and17.20，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.64美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。相对强弱指标及随机指数在上周末段已自超卖区域出现回升迹象，有可能在本周初银价会先作持稳，下方支持预估在16.00and15.60，较大支持预料为15.00The US dollar barrier.

London Silver11month28day – 12month2Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.88 – 17.30 – 18.10 – 19.00
Support bit:15.70 – 14.90 – 14.50 – 14.00

London Silver11month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.90 – 16.90
Resistance level:17.40 – 18.00
Support bit:15.40 – 15.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

未来数月，欧元将面临一系列政治风险，包括一周之后的意大利修宪公投 , and明年法国和德国的大选 ，这些因素都可能驱动欧元走低。如果民调预示准确，意大利公投否决修宪，可能会导致总理伦齐下台并令欧元遭受重创。在法国保守派总统竞选提名人初选中，选民抛弃了前总统萨科齐，前总理菲永意外处于领先。本周日的第二轮投票中，菲永将与另一位前总理朱佩对决。此外，德国总理默克尔已宣布，她将在明年大选中寻求第四个总理任期。这被视为有利于欧元。

欧元兑美元上周四跌见至1.0515，创下的去年12月以来最低位。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。而只要1.05这个半百关口可守稳，则可望重展反弹势头。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，若1.05失守，下一级支持去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
11month28day(one): Italy11月制造业商业信心指数‧eurozone10monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧M3对家庭贷款‧M3对非金融行业贷款‧eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数
11month29day(two)：法国第三季GDPQuarterly rate final value‧France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Germany11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
11month30day(three): France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HIPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate
12month2day(five): Eurozone10monthPPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

美元兑日圆周五升至八个月高位，美债收益率恢复升势，提振美元。美国周四因感恩节假期休市。美元兑日圆触及八个月高位113.90日圆。美国可能升息以及可能实施贸易保护主义的阴影，令新兴市场股市和货币受到重创。美国总统当选人特朗普拥护贸易保护主义。技术图表所见，预料上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近见于110.80Horizontal.

下周将是数据密集的一周，重要数据包括美国11月非农就业报告、全球主要经济体通胀率和国内生产总值(GDP)数据，以及制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)。不过，美联储似乎很大机会在12月升息，故政治层面的消息可能将盖过数据主导市场。

Focus:
11month29day(two): Japan10All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧零售销售年率
11month30day(three): Japan10Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
12month1day(four)：日本第三季商业资本支出年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.

Focus:
11month29day(two): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(three): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(four): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧104.7
12month1day(four)Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
12month2day(five)Switzerland Season 3GDP

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 初步呈回弹

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75and0.76水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Focus:
11month30day(three): Australia11monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia10Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
12month1day(four): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Index‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出
12month2day(five): Australia10Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7435 – 0.7500 – 0.7600
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

由周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为250Balance moving average0.6950，较大支撑则会看至0.68To the extent that5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着0.70关口，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域多时，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.7220The next key material is0.74Horizontal.

Focus:
11month30day(three): New Zealand10Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand11monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZ高业活动指数
12month1day(four)：纽西兰第三季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

市场对于加拿大央行进一步降息的前景过于掉以轻心。North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) 的前景不明，恐将导致加拿大企业支出升温的预期落空。加拿大央行在10月预期，继最近几年令人失望的表现后，2017年企业投资将转为正增长。不过特朗普意外赢得美国总统选举，令NAFTA的前景出现不确定性；分析师称这将会挫伤投资积极性。围绕NAFTA的不确定性上升，尚未带动市场对加拿大央行降息的预期升温。尽管该央行在10月会议上考虑过降息，但还是决定维持政策利率在0.50%不变。上次降息还是在2015year7月。据隔夜指数掉期数据显示，市场认为直到2017年中利率都将保持不变。在11month8日美国大选前，降息机率还为30%。因美国联邦储备理事会(FED)加息机率增加有助于推高加拿大利率，自然会对加国利率预期产生影响。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：加拿大第三流动帐平衡
11month30day(three): Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Canada11monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820







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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)