Crossing the Sea 2016year11month23day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month23day

Focus this week:
11month23day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A10Monthly durable goods orders
U.S.A9Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值
U.S.A10Monthly sales of new houses

11month24day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

11month25day(Friday)
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:
20：30 U.S.A10月建筑许可年率修订‧Previous value122.910000 households
20：30 U.S.A10月建筑许可月率修订‧Previous value+0.3%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly rate of durable goods orders‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value-0.3%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value+0.6%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-1.3%
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(11month19Day and Week)‧forecast25.0ten thousand people‧Previous value23.5ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States(11month19Day and Week)‧Previous value25.35ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(11month12Day and Week)‧forecast203.0ten thousand people‧Previous value197.7ten thousand people
22：00 U.S.A9Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value+0.7%
22：00 U.S.A9Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value+6.4%
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast53.4‧Previous value53.4
23：00 U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值‧forecast91.6‧Previous value91.6
23：00 U.S.A11月密西根大学现况指数终值‧Previous value105.9
23：00 U.S.A11月密西根大学预期指数终值‧Previous value82.5
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly New Home Sales Annual Rate‧forecast59.310000 households‧Previous value59.310000 households
23：00 U.S.A10月新屋销售月率‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+3.1%



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly housing sales increase2%，年率升至逾九年半高位的56010000 households
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank11The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive4



11month22day
LondongoldMorning order price:1217.55
London gold afternoon fixing price:1212.25



Today's Introduction

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)将于下周讨论除利比亚和尼日利亚外所有成员国减产4-4.5%的协议，但成功与否取决于伊拉克和伊朗是否加入，两国距离确定全面支持协议还相距甚远。三位OPEC消息人士告诉路透，OPEC专家周二在维也纳决定，建议11month30日的部长级会议讨论由成员国阿尔及利亚提出的按照上述比例减产的提议。但消息人士还称，伊朗、伊拉克和印度尼西亚代表已经对他们的参与程度表达了保留意见。如果此协议达成，将是2008Since the beginning of the yearOPEC的第一个限制供应协议。

U.S.A10月成屋销售年率升至逾九年半最高水平，因购房人在就业市场好转的支撑下，利用抵押贷款利率仍然较低的机会买进房产。夏季销售旺季时很多人未能买到房子。房屋销售激增进一步证明，第四季初美国经济增长加速。全美不动产协会(NAR)Announced on Tuesday, USA10Monthly housing sales increase2%At an annual rate of560万户，这是2007year2月以来的最高年率。NAR将销售上升归因于“未实现的积压需求”。夏季供应紧张引发了抢购战，把一些潜在购房者挤出了市场。秋季和冬季通常是房屋销售淡季，购房者的机会可能正在改善。上月房屋在市场上待售的时间通常为41天，高于9Of39天，但低于一年前的57天。分析师先前预测，10Monthly housing sales decline0.5%to543万户。销售较上年同期增长5.9%。上月所有四个地区的销售全部上升。上周公布的报告显示房屋开工大增。此前公布的零售销售和就业市场数据亦表现强劲，制造业调查结果改善，均显示美国经济在第四季初继续加快速度。房屋销售上升意味着经纪商的佣金增加，这会提高国内生产总值(GDP)报告中的住宅建设分项。亚特兰大联储预计，第四季GDPThe month on month annual rate is growth3.6%。第三季环比年率为增长2.9%。经济增长前景强劲，加上就业市场紧俏，均可能推动美国联邦储备理事会(FED)下个月加息。



XAU London Gold - 金价险守千二，或迎反扑机会

瑞士海关周二的数据显示，瑞士10月近一年来首次成为黄金的凈出口国，对印度的出口激增至1月以来最高，对香港出口触及年内高位。

特朗普当选美国总统刺激了欧洲市场对实货黄金的避险买盘 ，但美国国内惯于持有黄金的投资者这次却迟迟没有出手，他们当中许多人对特朗普选都持乐观态度。两个市场的投资者对特朗普胜选一事反应迥异，显示出他们对风险的评估相差甚大。在美国以外，特朗普承诺要重新谈判贸易协议和国际关系，刺激了防御性黄金买盘；而美国的投资者更多则抛售黄金，转战股债市场。

金价近日在1200上方的区间波动，市场等待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)本月稍早政策会议的会议记录，目前外界预期美联储12月升息。强劲的成屋销售数据是美国经济前景改善的最新迹象。根据CME GroupofFedWatch ToolFederal Funds RatefuturesDisplay, traders expect the Federal Reserve to12月升息机率为100%。另外，黄金上市交易基金(ETF)持仓量继续减少。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust称，周二其黄金持仓量下降0.42%to904.91吨，周一为908.77Tons.

技术图表所见，金价在今年5月底已曾探试1200美元关口，其时低位1199.60，之后的6月份金价则高歌猛涨，故留意若此趟下跌仍可守住此关口，则可望黄金可重新开展升势。较大支持预估在1181and1172USD, the latter being2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率。向上阻力料为1221and1229美元，较大阻力预计为250Balance moving average1245USD.

London Gold11month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1203 – 1221
Resistance level:1229 – 1244
Support bit:1196 – 1181

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton


12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价整理走势

伦敦白银方面，银价上周亦是连日走低，上周五低见16.42USD, for6month8日以来最低水平。技术上银价低位正好止步于100周平均线，而相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入严重超卖区域，或许迎来本周有机会稍作喘稳，较近阻力预估在17.10，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.63美元，在此前为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考，进一步将看至18美元关口。下方支持预估在16.20and15.80，较大支持预料为15.60USD.

London Silver11month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 17.10
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.90
Support bit:15.80 – 15.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton
11month4Day - 11148.60ton
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

美元周三接近13年半高位，美国强劲楼市数据进一步巩固了对美联储12月加息及明年继续收紧政策的预期，进而支撑美元。周二公布的数据显示，美国10月成屋销售年率升至逾九年半最高水平，帮助支撑美元。市场人士将关注周三公布的美国耐用品订单及美联储11Monthly policy meeting minutes.

欧元兑美元从上周五创下的去年12The lowest point since the beginning of the month1.0569美元回弹，周二升上1.0658。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。至于下方支持则瞩目于1.0540and1.05水平，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Germany11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
Thursday: Germany Season 3GDP‧France11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany11monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Italy10Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧薪资指数‧Germany12monthGfKConsumer confidence index
Friday: France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Retail sales

Related news
欧洲央行高官誓言持续支持欧元区经济
央行月报：德国第四季经济成长将明显加快

eurozone11月消费者信心指数初值升至负6.1

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0540 – 1.0500 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 央行购债打压日圆

美元周三徘徊在近期所及的13年半高位附近，在大涨后稍事歇息。在特朗普执政下财政刺激将扩大的前景，令外界预期美国利率将比先前预想的更进一步上升，这在之前推动美元走扬。美元指数持稳在101水平，距离周五高位101.48也不远，后者也是2003year4月以来最高点。周二公布的数据显示，美国10月成屋销售年率升至逾九年半最高水平，帮助支撑美元。美元兑日圆争持于111水平附近。日本股市周三因公共假日休市，市场交投淡静。美元兑日圆周二曾涨至111.35日圆，追平周一高点，此为5月底以来美元兑日圆的最高水平。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已高踞超买区域多日，需慎防美元随时出现回调机会。预料上方阻力先参考5month30Daily high111.43The next level will see112.50To the extent that100Monthly average line114.90水平。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，下一级则会是108and200Balance moving average106.40。可留意由9month27Daily low100.07至今的的累积涨幅计算，38.2%的调整幅度为106.75Expand to50%and61.8%Then they are respectively105.50and104.20Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
Friday: Japan10monthCPI‧Japan11monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 111.43 – 112.50 – 114.90
support 110.00 – 108.00 – 106.40



GBP pound - 技术超买

欧洲议会领导人周二对英国政府的退欧谈判代表称，一旦英国脱离欧盟，就要准备面对在该国重视的领域被排除在合作之外的局面。英国脱欧事务大臣戴维斯会见了欧洲议会的英退主要谈判代表维霍夫斯塔、以及德国总理梅克尔的保守派盟友韦伯(Manfred Weber)。韦伯是欧洲议会中最大党团的主席。英国的脱欧协议需提交欧洲议会批准。此次会面是为了英国首相梅翠珊启动脱欧谈判作准备；梅翠珊承诺将在3月底前根据欧盟条约第50条款启动谈判。与会者的讨论重点放在程序问题，但有迹象显示未来或将出现意见冲突。

英镑周二回落至1.24美元附近，流动性不足帮助英镑回吐了前日1%升幅的约一半。由于市场认为英国退出欧盟的过程将比先前预期来得缓慢且温和，上日激励英镑走高。英镑兑美元周一跳升至1.25美元上方，因英国首相梅翠珊承诺将处理企业的疑虑，暗示将有某种形式的过渡协议。

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑在十月份处于窄幅盘整，至本周初汇价升破了25Balance moving average, currently25The antenna is in1.23，只要英镑兑美元未有失守此区，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探50Balance moving average1.2650水平，上周五的高位正是受制于此技术指标；进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向面临着修正需要，较大支持位预估在1.2250and1.2180Horizontal.               

Focus:
Thursday: UK10monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
周五：英国第三季GDP修订‧企业投资初值‧britain10Monthly retail sales difference

Related news
britain10Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)by43.01Billion pounds, compared to the same period last year59.36Billion pounds
britain10The monthly public sector revenue and expenditure surplus is34.13£ 100 million, with a surplus in the same period last year20.78Billion pounds
britain10月扣除国有银行的公共部门凈债务(PSND)by1.6416万亿英镑创纪录高位，相当
toGDPof83.8%
British Industrial Alliance(CBI)11The difference in monthly total industrial orders is negative3, for6The highest in the past month

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2630 – 1.2800
support 1.2300 – 1.2250 – 1.2180



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Related news
Switzerland10The monthly trade surplus is26.78Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
周四：瑞士第三季工业订单年率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 初步呈回弹

澳元周二小涨，因美元在近期大涨后盘整，此外主要商品价格上扬也提供了支撑。澳元兑美元升至0.74水平，脱离周一触及的五个月低点0.7311。特朗普赢得美国总统大选，引发通胀预期和美债收益率上升，澳元最近两周仍下跌0.04美元。铜、煤和铁矿石价格上涨亦扶助了澳元。

澳元兑美元本周一下探至0.7311的五个月低位，但随着美元掉头回落，澳元之后亦见稍事反弹。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为0.74and250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Related news
澳洲第三季经季节调整的建筑完工额较前季下降4.9%

Focus:
周四：澳洲第三季资本支出‧建筑类支出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7435 – 0.7500
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

纽元兑美元方面，面对美元近期的持续强势，纽元由高位0.7403跌至上周五低见0.70。由周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为250Balance moving average0.6950，较大支撑则会看至0.68To the extent that5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着0.70关口，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域多时，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.7220The next key material is0.74Horizontal.

Related news
央行称通胀上升受阻，归咎谨慎支出及全球通胀放缓压力

Focus:
Friday: New Zealand10Monthly trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
Tuesday: Canada9Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)