Crossing the Sea 2016year11month22day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month22day

Focus this week:
11month22day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A11Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

11month23day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A10Monthly durable goods orders
U.S.A9Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值
U.S.A10Monthly sales of new houses

11month24day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

11month25day(Friday)
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:        
17：30 britain10Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧forecast60Billion‧Previous value106.13Billion
17：30 britain10Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)‧Previous value101.18Billion
17：30 britain10Shortfall in monthly public sector revenue and expenditure(PSNCR)‧Previous value132.85Billion
19：00 britain11monthCBITotal industrial order difference‧Predict negative8‧Negative front value17
23：00 eurozone11Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative7.8‧Negative front value8.0
21：30 Canada9Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30 Canada9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.5%‧Front value remains unchanged
23：00 U.S.A10Annual sales rate of monthly completed houses‧forecast54210000 households‧Previous value54710000 households
23：00 U.S.A10月成屋销售月率‧forecast-0.9%‧Previous value+3.2%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index‧Negative front value4



11month21day
LondongoldMorning order price:1214.95
London gold afternoon fixing price:1214.25



Today's Introduction

联储副主席费希尔：提高生产率的政策将提振美国经济潜能

美联储副主席费希尔加入大选后讨论美国新政府将采取何种政策的行列，称提振生产率的支出和其它措施将帮助降低美联储支撑经济的重担。“某些财经政策，尤其是提高生产率的政策，将提振经济潜能，并帮助应对长期经济挑战，”费希尔称。他说，改善公共基础设施、更好的教育、鼓励民间投资，以及更有效的监管，这些可能将促进生产率和生活条件的快速提高。



XAU London Gold - 金价险守千二，或迎反扑机会

suffer美元走软 及亚洲实货买盘提振，金价周二上扬，一度跨过1220Horizontal.金价已从11month9日美国大选后的高位跌逾120dollar 。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(SPDR Gold Trust)周一称其黄金持有量下降0.71%to908.76吨；本月已下降3.6%。

技术图表所见，金价在今年5月底已曾探试1200美元关口，其时低位1199.60，之后的6月份金价则高歌猛涨，故留意若此趟下跌仍可守住此关口，则可望是重新吸纳黄金的机会。较大支持预估在1187and1172USD, the latter being2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率。向上阻力料为1226and1238美元，较大阻力预计为250Balance moving average1245USD.

London Gold11month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1212 – 1226
Resistance level:1238 – 1245 – 1258
Support bit:1199 – 1187 – 1177

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价整理走势

伦敦白银方面，银价上周亦是连日走低，周五低见16.42USD, for6month8日以来最低水平。技术上银价低位正好止步于100周平均线，而相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入严重超卖区域，或许迎来本周有机会稍作喘稳，较近阻力预估在17.00，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.62美元，在此前为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考，进一步将看至18美元关口。下方支持预估在16.20and16.00，较大支持预料为15.60USD.

London Silver11month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.90
Support bit:16.00 – 15.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton
11month4Day - 11148.60ton
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton



EUR euro - 受累于对意大利公投的担忧

两位欧洲央行高官表示，欧洲央行需要持续用超宽松政策来支持欧元区经济 。这强化了市场对于欧洲央行下月将会延长购债计划的预期。欧洲央行总裁德拉吉表示，央行需要维持当前的货币政策支持水平，好让欧元区通胀重回近2%的目标。欧洲央行执委科尔表示，开始逐渐缩减欧洲央行非常规政策宽松规模的时候“尚未”到来，该央行首先需看到通胀持续反弹，才会那么做。

德国央行月报指出，制造业在经过几个月的低迷后，第四季料将推动德国经济回升。该央行表示，由于人气改善且新订单增加，就业料将继续增长，将提振德国经济在几个季度表现相对温和后出现成长。德国央行称，就业前景已明显改善，未来几个月注册失业率可能将下降。

欧元从周五创下的去年12The lowest point since the beginning of the month1.0569美元回弹，周二升上1.0650水平。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。至于下方支持则瞩目于1.0540and1.05水平，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
11month22day(two): Eurozone11Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
11month23day(three): Germany11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
11month24day(four)：德国第三季GDP‧France11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany11monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Italy10Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧薪资指数‧Germany12monthGfKConsumer confidence index
11month25day(five): France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Retail sales‧

Related news
欧洲央行高官誓言持续支持欧元区经济
央行月报：德国第四季经济成长将明显加快

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0540 – 1.0500 – 1.0400



JPY yen - 央行购债打压日圆

美元周二稍事休整，投资者对涨势进行整固。此前对美国总统当选人特朗普执政将增加财政支出及令通胀上升的预期推升美元。美元指数处于101下方，脱离上周五触及的13年半高点101.48。美元兑日圆持稳于110区间，周一创下近六个月高位111.36日圆，较11month9日接近101日圆的低点高出10%。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已高踞超买区域多日，需慎防美元随时出现回调机会。预料上方阻力先参考5month30Daily high111.43The next level will see112.50To the extent that100Monthly average line114.90水平。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，下一级则会是108and200Balance moving average106.40。可留意由9month27Daily low100.07至今的的累积涨幅计算，38.2%的调整幅度为106.75Expand to50%and61.8%Then they are respectively105.50and104.20Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
Friday: Japan10monthCPI‧Japan11monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 111.43 – 112.50 – 114.90
support 110.00 – 108.00 – 106.40



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑在十月份处于窄幅盘整，至本周初汇价升破了25Balance moving average, currently25The antenna is in1.23，只要英镑兑美元未有失守此区，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探50Balance moving average1.2650水平，上周五的高位正是受制于此技术指标；进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向面临着修正需要，较大支持位预估在1.2250and1.2180Horizontal.

Focus:
11month22day(two): UK10Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)‧britain11monthCBITotal industrial order difference
11month24day(four): UK10monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
11month25day(five): UK Season 3GDP修订‧企业投资初值‧britain10Monthly retail sales difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2630 – 1.2800
support 1.2300 – 1.2250 – 1.2180



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

The Swiss Federal Customs Office announced on Tuesday that Switzerland10月经工作日调整实质出口同比成长6.1%, to178.1Billion Swiss francs.

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Pass, at10month25日汇价的升幅就曾止步于1.00关口，将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland10The monthly trade surplus is26.78Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
周四：瑞士第三季工业订单年率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 特朗普入主白宫，风险资产承压

澳元周二小涨，因美元在近期大涨后盘整，此外主要商品价格上扬也提供了支撑。澳元兑美元升至0.74水平，脱离周一触及的五个月低点0.7311。特朗普赢得美国总统大选，引发通胀预期和美债收益率上升，澳元最近两周仍下跌0.04美元。铜、煤和铁矿石价格上涨亦扶助了澳元。

澳元兑美元本周一下探至0.7311的五个月低位，但随着美元掉头回落，澳元之后亦见稍事反弹。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为0.74and250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Focus:
11month23day(three)：澳洲第三季建筑完工
11month24day(four)：澳洲第三季资本支出‧建筑类支出        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7435 – 0.7500
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

纽西兰央行副总裁Geoff Bascand周二称，尽管家庭财富在增长，但国内消费者在支出方面变得更为谨慎，导致该国通胀更难以回归期望的水准。Bascand称，全球金融危机引发的“新审慎情绪”意味着，纽西兰兴盛的楼市状况并未像之前一样演变为加快支出。他表示，央行认为这种消费谨慎情绪将只是暂时现象，不会像其它一些发达国家那样发生放缓或无增长的慢性停滞局面。此外，他也确实指出，全球其它因素也对物价上升产生阻碍。

纽元兑美元方面，面对美元近期的持续强势，纽元由高位0.7403跌至上周五低见0.70。由周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为250Balance moving average0.6950，较大支撑则会看至0.68To the extent that5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着0.70关口，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域多时，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.7220The next key material is0.74Horizontal.

Related news
央行称通胀上升受阻，归咎谨慎支出及全球通胀放缓压力

Focus:
Friday: New Zealand10Monthly trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
Tuesday: Canada9Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)