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叶雯熙:产量过剩空头大获全胜,下周现货原油操作思路

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Market Review:
  
  本周在美国大选以及产量过剩的双重打击下,油价再次创新低。周一油价因欧佩克秘书长再度承诺遵守限产协议及库欣库存再度减少等利好消息而反弹逾1%。周二因美国大选特朗普支持率意外反超录得一根小阴线。周三API数据利空油价反应不大,倒是因为日内特朗普一马当先当选总统暴跌3%,不过随后技术性回调触底反弹,晚间EIA数据再度利空,油价先跌后涨。周四随着市场情绪稳定油价减缓跌势,不过晚间公布的IEA月报令油价蒙上阴影。周五因产量过剩问题再次延续跌势,油价步入深渊。
  
  Market information:
  
Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(BakerHughes)Friday(11month11day)According to published data, as of2016year11month11The number of active oil wells in the United States increased during the current week2Seat to452座,上周在短暂修正后大增9座,延续了近期的连续升势,过去24周内有21周录得上升,映衬了投资者对油价重返50美元后美国页岩油产量回升的担忧。
  
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)And the International Energy Agency(IEA)最新发布的月报均产生较大利空影响,同时美国石油活跃钻井数也继续提升,供应过剩忧虑持续升温令市场对限产前景偏向悲观。美国WTIcrude oilfuturesThe lowest price hit in the session43.09dollar/Bucket.
  
 Message surface parsing:
  
  特朗普当选美国总统,全球市场在戏剧性V形反转之后已经逐渐回归理性,正如奥巴马所说的一样,无论选举结果如何,明日太阳依然东升,当前投资者所需做的就是密切关注特朗普的政策走向。随着冻产协议未能做出任何建设之后,产量过剩问题始终得不到解决,加上特朗普的立场只会让过剩问题更加严重,雯熙看好,倘若欧佩克再不出头提振油价,恐怕未来的油价凶多吉少。
  
  原油技术分析:
  
  原油经历了上周暴跌噩梦之后远远没有结束,连续三周录得阴线呈断崖式下跌,目前来看43美元防守位置已经岌岌可危,上周笔者布局的中线43位置多单仅仅是昙花一现。本周欧派克产油国未能及时救场,油价产量过剩问题噩梦缠身。周线来看,k线跌破布林带中轨,副图MACD指标相对弱势。这也跟近期的消息面有关,技术面变得不那么靠谱。日线图来看,油价跌势受到布林带下轨支撑,下行通道得以延续,MA均线上目前已经跌破五日均线,附图MACD指标绿色动能仍然强势,kdj三线黏合运行。雯熙认为就目前油价的惨状来看,若再无重大利好消息,油价40美元位置难保。下周短期关注42美元处支撑,日线跌势为改变之前,空头还是作为主力。操作上笔者公众号叶雯熙建议逢高做空。
   叶雯熙:产量过剩空头大获全胜,下周现货原油操作思路203 / author:Ye Wenxi / PostsID:303683
  Operation suggestions:
  
143.5Long on the US dollar, stop loss0.3US dollars, look at the target43-42.8:
  
II42.5Short the US dollar on the first line, stop loss0.3US dollars, look at the target43-43.2。
  
以上文章由叶雯熙指导原创撰稿,文章仅属个人观点(各平台点位不一致,无法一一给出,实时行情连线笔者微信ywx5252)以上仅供参考,投资有风险,入市需谨慎,风险自担!  
 
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