万致外汇：澳元兑美元11month09日各投行交易分析及走势预测

Yituo Finance:
　　澳元受crude oil反弹的影响而走强，昨日已经动态突破上方阻力位，然后收线在附近，今日继续尝试突破该位置，可选择过昨日高点0.7780追多操作，0.7720Stop loss.
Deng Fute:
AUD/美元日线图最近几个交易日延续了区间内向上节奏，最近两个交易日更是收出大阳线，上行动能进一步增强，这也有利于澳元未来进一步上行至4month21Daily high point0.7830。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元在对10month26日以来的调整区间上沿形成突破并稍作调整后，短线涨势进一步加速。澳元日内冲高到0.7780遇阻围绕高点缓慢调整，受到美国大选选情的影响，短线在调整过程中仍然会出现明显的反复。澳元经过连续的调整将会延续短线涨势。短线支撑0.7690。
AustraliaGCG：
　　昨日受商品价格上涨影响，澳币，纽币，加币等商品货币大幅拉升，澳币最高点触及0.7775的高位，而我们也多次提及汇价有望突破三角区间的压制而上行，而上行第一目标位则是0.7770。盘面上看，汇价突破后有望继续上行整理，但考虑到今日美国方面的大选消息，有必要控制好仓位以及止损。日内策略逢低买入，点位在0.7680。
　　三井住友：
Wednesday(11month9day)亚市午盘，澳元/美元位于0.7655附近水平徘徊。日内澳元大幅走软，汇价开盘自0.7776高点一路下挫，目前继续维持下行行情。
　　如果特朗普在大选中获胜，资金流有可能出现逆转，澳元或将因此而下跌大约2%-3%，表现差于亚太地区其他货币。澳元是与大宗商品密切相关的高收益货币，一旦特朗普当选，一直流入澳大利亚的资金流向可能出现逆转。与其他一些新兴市场国家不同，他们没有资金流动限制，澳元对市场避险人气更为敏感。”如果特朗普胜选，其对亚洲货币产生的影响可能会延续大约一周时间。如果希拉里获胜，则其影响可能仅昙花一现。
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7730 0.7690 resistance 0.7780 0.7850
　　澳元在近期选举局势逐渐明朗的情况下终于上破了0.77一带的阻力，这也是自今年以来澳元一直突破未果的区域，从技术图形上来看上行的动力较为强劲。在选举的影响结束后，我们将重新回到美联储加息的主题，结合着澳联储降息概率较小的情景，未来澳元大方向还是震荡向上，借助支撑做多将是未来一段时间的主题。短期来看，上方的阻力位置分别是0.7780and0.7850;短期内下方的支撑是此前的阻力位，分别是0.7730and0.7690。

Event discussion:

time	Indicator content	Previous value	Estimate	Announced value
05:30	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	-312.8	-205	-430
	Last week in the United StatesAPI库欣地区原油库存变化(10000 barrels)(to1104)	+102.7		20
	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	-357.7	-145	-360
	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	+929.6	+105	440
20:00	Last week in the United StatesMBA30年期固定抵押贷款利率(to1104)	3.75%		Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesMBA抵押贷款购买指数(to1104)	207		Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Application Activity Index(to1104)	486.2		Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesMBA抵押贷款再融资活动指数(to1104)	2088		Waiting
23:00	U.S.A9Monthly wholesale inventory(Monthly rate)	+0.2%	+0.2%	Waiting
	U.S.A9Monthly wholesale sales(Monthly rate)	+0.7%	+0.5%	Waiting
23:30	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	+1442	+105	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIARefinery equipment utilization rate(to1104)	85.2%	85.9%	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	-182.8	-205	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to1104)	-220.7	-145	Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：选举进入白热化，市场预期胜出人选几变换（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/16110901/）

　　

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